Value
8.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.39
- ▸Attractively valued
CIB · Why this verdict
Why Grupo Cibest (CIB) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The business quality profile sits at the floor of the minimum acceptable level — return metrics, margin profile, and competitive positioning collectively offer no identifiable moat — meaning the investment case depends almost entirely on continued earnings delivery and sentiment rather than any structural advantage. Warnings | Piotroski F-Score rises to 9 out of 9 and net margin improves above 10% for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating meaningful quality improvement. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 confirms adequate balance-sheet health, and the bank's dividend — even if elevated — signals management confidence in near-term cash generation; quality at the floor does not mean quality deteriorating. | ||
A flagged condition indicates the stock has reached or exceeded its fundamental valuation anchor, with analyst-implied fair value estimated to be approximately 29% below the current price — meaning further appreciation requires analysts to materially revise their models upward rather than simply tracking earnings delivery. Bear case | Analyst consensus price target is revised upward above the current price of $80.14, restoring positive expected return relative to the fundamental anchor. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets in emerging-market financials can lag price discovery when local liquidity conditions or capital-flow dynamics drive re-rating faster than fundamental models update; strong momentum and rising volume accumulation may reflect information the consensus estimates have not yet captured. | ||
After two consecutive beats in the older quarters of the trailing twelve months, the two most recent quarters both missed consensus estimates — by approximately 12% and 10% respectively — a reversal that raises questions about whether prior earnings delivery was structural or temporary. Earnings | The company beats consensus by more than 3% in each of the next 2 quarters, demonstrating that the miss streak has reversed. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo misses following two beats leaves the full-year picture near symmetry, and the average surprise over the trailing twelve months remains slightly positive; a single meaningful beat in the next quarter would dissolve the narrative of persistent deterioration. | ||
A forward P/E of 8.9x and a PEG ratio of 0.54 place the bank near the top of its peer group on value-adjusted metrics, providing a fundamental floor even if the stock corrects from technically overextended levels toward the analyst consensus anchor. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E remains below 12x as earnings grow modestly, keeping the valuation cushion intact as price normalizes. | →Stable |
| CounterCheap multiples in regional financials can reflect structural challenges — credit quality, currency exposure, or margin compression — rather than genuine discount; the two recent earnings misses suggest the forward earnings estimate itself may be too optimistic, narrowing the apparent value buffer. | ||
The business quality profile sits at the floor of the minimum acceptable level — return metrics, margin profile, and competitive positioning collectively offer no identifiable moat — meaning the investment case depends almost entirely on continued earnings delivery and sentiment rather than any structural advantage.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score rises to 9 out of 9 and net margin improves above 10% for 2 consecutive quarters, demonstrating meaningful quality improvement.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 confirms adequate balance-sheet health, and the bank's dividend — even if elevated — signals management confidence in near-term cash generation; quality at the floor does not mean quality deteriorating.
A flagged condition indicates the stock has reached or exceeded its fundamental valuation anchor, with analyst-implied fair value estimated to be approximately 29% below the current price — meaning further appreciation requires analysts to materially revise their models upward rather than simply tracking earnings delivery.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target is revised upward above the current price of $80.14, restoring positive expected return relative to the fundamental anchor.
CounterAnalyst targets in emerging-market financials can lag price discovery when local liquidity conditions or capital-flow dynamics drive re-rating faster than fundamental models update; strong momentum and rising volume accumulation may reflect information the consensus estimates have not yet captured.
After two consecutive beats in the older quarters of the trailing twelve months, the two most recent quarters both missed consensus estimates — by approximately 12% and 10% respectively — a reversal that raises questions about whether prior earnings delivery was structural or temporary.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus by more than 3% in each of the next 2 quarters, demonstrating that the miss streak has reversed.
CounterTwo misses following two beats leaves the full-year picture near symmetry, and the average surprise over the trailing twelve months remains slightly positive; a single meaningful beat in the next quarter would dissolve the narrative of persistent deterioration.
A forward P/E of 8.9x and a PEG ratio of 0.54 place the bank near the top of its peer group on value-adjusted metrics, providing a fundamental floor even if the stock corrects from technically overextended levels toward the analyst consensus anchor.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E remains below 12x as earnings grow modestly, keeping the valuation cushion intact as price normalizes.
CounterCheap multiples in regional financials can reflect structural challenges — credit quality, currency exposure, or margin compression — rather than genuine discount; the two recent earnings misses suggest the forward earnings estimate itself may be too optimistic, narrowing the apparent value buffer.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
The bank trades at an attractive forward P/E of 8.9x with a PEG of 0.54 and constructive technical momentum, but it has run well beyond the analyst consensus fair-value anchor — implying negative expected return versus that anchor — and the two most recent quarters both missed estimates, reversing a prior two-quarter beat streak, while quality sits at the floor of the minimum acceptable level.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.6 |
| ROA | 1.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 7.3 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
| EPS growth | 6.3 |
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 2.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.9 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 4.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.4 |
| support resistance | 4.2 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.4 |
| days to cover | 8.9 |
| volatility | 4.8 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.6 |
| beta | 10.0 |
Catalyst
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.7 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 319.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:38d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.17
Upside
-27.2%
Downside
12.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.1 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-2.2=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Risk (lower is worse) at 8.1, and Growth at 5.8; the weakest are Quality at 4.0, Sentiment at 4.3, and Catalyst at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.17 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Anchor
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $95 per share, restoring more than 15% expected upside from current levels.
- P2Recent Earnings Deterioration
Trip ifEPS beats consensus by more than 3% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Valuation Remains Supportive
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 13x from the current 8.9x.
- P4Quality At The Floor
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score rises to 9 out of 9 for 2 consecutive quarters.