Churchill Downs (CHDN) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $1.23
- Estimate
- $1.10
- Surprise
- +11.8%
- Revenue (period 2026-09-30)
- $696.0M
- Score at report (before → after)
- 5.9 → 6.0/10
Revenue source: xbrl.
How the report landed
Churchill Downs (CHDN) beat the $1.10 estimate with adjusted EPS of $1.23 — a large 11.8% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (5.9/10) to Sell at 6.0/10 after the report.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates CHDN Sell at 6.0/10.
3 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +11.8% surprise compares with a +6.8% four-quarter average.
What supports the rating
- Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
- Attractive valuation
What argues against it
- Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
- Leverage penalty (D/E 3.5): -1.5
- Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend)
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $81.95
- Price target
- $109.40
- Stop
- $77.21
- Upside to target
- +33.5%
- Reward-to-risk
- 3.1:1
The stock trades at 14.0× trailing but 11.2× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-10-29 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
CHDN at TrendMatrix's latest read
Cyclical consumer names live and die on demand momentum — same-quarter comps and guidance carry more weight than the headline surprise.
- Industry
- Gambling
- Market cap
- $5.71B
- P/E (fwd)
- 11.2
- P/E (ttm)
- 14.0
- 52-week range
- $73.09–$118.35
- Off 52-week high
- 30.8%
- RSI (14)
- 68
- Volume vs avg
- 1.02×
- Score today
- 6.0/10