CF Industries Holdings (CF) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $2.87
- Estimate
- $3.05
- Surprise
- -6.0%
- Score today
- 6.8/10
Revenue for this quarter isn’t shown: the reported figure hasn’t cleared TrendMatrix’s freshness and sanity checks yet, and consensus revenue isn’t tracked. EPS above is the available figure.
How the report landed
CF Industries Holdings (CF) missed the $3.05 estimate with adjusted EPS of $2.87 — a clear 6.0% shortfall.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates CF Buy (Wait) at 6.8/10; no pre/post engine snapshot brackets this report.
1 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's -6.0% surprise compares with a -4.1% four-quarter average.
What supports the rating
- V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.2 in RISK_OFF)
- High-quality business
What argues against it
- Concentration risk — Supplier: single natural gas pipeline
- Thin upside margin: 3.7%
- Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $111.68
- Entry target
- $103.49
- Price target
- $115.82
- Stop
- $96.25
- Upside to target
- +3.7%
- Reward-to-risk
- 0.5:1
Forward estimates sit below the trailing run-rate (9.8× forward vs 8.3× trailing) — consensus expects earnings to decline from here.
Risk check: trading volume is running 2.0× its average — elevated turnover around the report window.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-11-05 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
CF at TrendMatrix's latest read
Materials producers report against the commodity cycle — realized-price capture and volume, not the EPS line, are the tells in a quarter like this.
- Industry
- Agricultural Inputs
- Market cap
- $16.90B
- P/E (fwd)
- 9.8
- P/E (ttm)
- 8.3
- 52-week range
- $75.42–$141.96
- Off 52-week high
- 21.3%
- RSI (14)
- 36
- Volume vs avg
- 2.02×
- Score today
- 6.8/10