Century Aluminum (CENX) Q3 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure · Editorial policy
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $2.58
- Estimate
- $2.75
- Surprise
- -6.1%
- Revenue (period 2026-09-30)
- $961.2M
- Score at report (before → after)
- 6.5 → 6.7/10
Revenue source: xbrl.
How the report landed
Century Aluminum (CENX) missed the $2.75 estimate with adjusted EPS of $2.58 — a clear 6.1% shortfall. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Hold (6.5/10) to Sell at 6.7/10 after the report — the engine's score rose despite the miss.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates CENX Sell at 6.4/10.
1 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's -6.1% surprise compares with a -2.7% four-quarter average.
What supports the rating
- Attractive valuation
- Strong growth profile
What argues against it
- Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 2.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.51× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
- Concentration risk — Customer: Glencore (54.0%)
- Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $32.88
- Price target
- $52.37
- Stop
- $30.57
- Upside to target
- +59.3%
- Reward-to-risk
- 5.0:1
The stock trades at 5.2× trailing but 2.6× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-11-06 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
CENX at TrendMatrix's latest read
Materials producers report against the commodity cycle — realized-price capture and volume, not the EPS line, are the tells in a quarter like this.
- Industry
- Aluminum
- Market cap
- $2.98B
- P/E (fwd)
- 2.6
- P/E (ttm)
- 5.2
- 52-week range
- $25.40–$70.43
- Off 52-week high
- 53.3%
- RSI (14)
- 45
- Volume vs avg
- 0.60×
- Score today
- 6.4/10