Century Aluminum (CENX) Q2 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $2.46
- Estimate
- $2.30
- Surprise
- +7.0%
- Score at report (before → after)
- 5.1 → 5.1/10
Revenue for this quarter isn’t shown: the reported figure hasn’t cleared TrendMatrix’s freshness and sanity checks yet, and consensus revenue isn’t tracked. EPS above is the available figure.
How the report landed
Century Aluminum (CENX) beat the $2.30 estimate with adjusted EPS of $2.46 — a clear 7.0% upside surprise. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (5.1/10) to Sell at 5.1/10 after the report.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates CENX Sell at 6.4/10.
1 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's +7.0% surprise compares with a -9.5% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2026-11-05.
What supports the rating
- Attractive valuation
- Strong growth profile
What argues against it
- Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 3.3× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.49× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
- Concentration risk — Customer: Glencore (54.0%)
- Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $38.17
- Price target
- $58.65
- Stop
- $36.47
- Upside to target
- +53.6%
- Reward-to-risk
- 5.0:1
The stock trades at 6.8× trailing but 3.3× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Risk check: RSI 18 — a level conventionally read as oversold.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-09-24 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
CENX at TrendMatrix's latest read
Materials producers report against the commodity cycle — realized-price capture and volume, not the EPS line, are the tells in a quarter like this.
- Industry
- Aluminum
- Market cap
- $3.84B
- P/E (fwd)
- 3.3
- P/E (ttm)
- 6.8
- 52-week range
- $25.40–$70.43
- Off 52-week high
- 45.8%
- RSI (14)
- 18
- Volume vs avg
- 0.34×
- Score today
- 6.4/10