Updated
The most significant concentration CareDx discloses is AlloSure/AlloMap/HeartCare transplant tests, classified HIGH by disclosed size. Below: the full set from the latest 10-K — verbatim quotes, filing references, and a synthesis of what these exposures mean together.
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Source: CareDx’s SEC Form 10-K filed — view the filing on SEC EDGAR ↗
Each card carries a disclosed-size chip (HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW — how large the exposure is as a share of revenue, not how dangerous it is) and a nature tag: Built-in(the company’s own model, geography, or products) or Outside party (an external customer, supplier, or distributor it relies on).
“10-K Item 1A: 'Our financial results currently are largely dependent on sales of AlloSure Kidney, AlloMap Heart, AlloSure Heart, HeartCare and AlloSure Lung tests and products'”
“10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 46%, 50% and 53% of all testing services revenue was derived from Medicare for the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'”
CareDx's concentration profile centers on two related dependencies. Financially, results are largely dependent on a narrow set of transplant diagnostics — AlloSure Kidney, AlloMap Heart, AlloSure Heart, HeartCare, and AlloSure Lung — a structural, product-line concentration with no disclosed offsetting revenue base. Layered on top is a payer concentration: approximately 46% of testing services revenue came from Medicare in the most recent year, following 50% and 53% in the two years prior, a declining but still medium-sized share. The trend is favorable — Medicare's share has fallen three years running — but the level remains material, meaning reimbursement policy changes carry disproportionate weight versus a more diversified payer mix. Because the product concentration and the Medicare dependency compound rather than offset each other, a shift in either CMS reimbursement rates or utilization of the named tests would flow through most of the topline. Both exposures are well disclosed, and the moderating trend in the Medicare share is worth tracking further.
For the engine’s reasoning on CDNA’s current verdict — including which dimensions drove the score — see the per-dimension breakdown.
| Symbol | Name | HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADPT | Adaptive Biotechnologies Corpor | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| CDNA● | CareDx, Inc. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| CRL | Charles River Laboratories Inte | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| BLLN | BillionToOne, Inc. | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| CSTL | Castle Biosciences, Inc. | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| A | Agilent Technologies, Inc. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Concentration counts reflect items disclosed in each peer’s most recent 10-K; disclosed-size classification uses TrendMatrix’s internal 10-K extraction taxonomy.