Value
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.27
- ▸Attractively valued
CCU · Why this verdict
Why Compania Cervecerias Unidas, S. (CCU) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A forward earnings multiple of 12.9x at a PEG of 0.38 and a perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 offer valuation and quality support, but the stock is already above its analyst price target, the dividend yield is flagged as potentially uncovered, and a death cross places the price below a declining long-term average, making the risk/reward of 0.07-to-1 unattractive at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The dividend yield is flagged as potentially uncovered, meaning the payout may exceed the company's sustainable cash generation; a dividend cut would represent a negative catalyst and likely trigger a sharp price adjustment by income-oriented shareholders. Catalyst breakdown | Free cash flow per share exceeds the annualized dividend per share for 2 consecutive reporting periods, confirming the payout is self-funded. | →Stable |
| CounterIf earnings recover and free cash flow improves, the dividend may become self-funding without requiring a cut; in the interim, the high yield could attract income-oriented buyers and provide a floor for the share price. | ||
The current stock price sits just above the analyst price target with only 0.5% remaining upside, while downside risk is approximately 6.8%, producing a risk/reward ratio of 0.07-to-1 that offers virtually no margin of safety at the current entry. Price targets | Analyst consensus price target is revised upward to at least $14.15 — more than 20% above the current price — restoring a positive and material risk/reward profile. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising on-balance volume signals some buying interest persists despite the unfavorable price/target relationship; if a positive surprise triggers analyst target upgrades, the negative asymmetry could resolve rapidly without requiring a price pullback. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9x and a PEG of 0.38 suggest the market is pricing in minimal earnings growth expectations, leaving room for multiple expansion if the company continues to deliver on its profit trajectory. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 15x and PEG remains under 0.75 over the next 12 months as earnings estimates hold or improve. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCheap multiples in the context of mixed recent earnings — one beat, one miss, one in-line over the last three quarters — may reflect rational skepticism about whether the growth implied by the low PEG is achievable; a second consecutive miss could compress the multiple further without valuation support. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 — a perfect reading across nine profitability, leverage, and efficiency tests — indicates broad fundamental strength that is inconsistent with the depressed price action and may represent an eventual catalyst for re-rating. Quality | Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or above over the next two annual reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterPiotroski scores are backward-looking annual metrics that may lag near-term deterioration; the score coexists with the stock trading below its 200-day moving average, suggesting the market is already pricing in a reversal of the favorable conditions underlying the score. | ||
The dividend yield is flagged as potentially uncovered, meaning the payout may exceed the company's sustainable cash generation; a dividend cut would represent a negative catalyst and likely trigger a sharp price adjustment by income-oriented shareholders.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow per share exceeds the annualized dividend per share for 2 consecutive reporting periods, confirming the payout is self-funded.
CounterIf earnings recover and free cash flow improves, the dividend may become self-funding without requiring a cut; in the interim, the high yield could attract income-oriented buyers and provide a floor for the share price.
The current stock price sits just above the analyst price target with only 0.5% remaining upside, while downside risk is approximately 6.8%, producing a risk/reward ratio of 0.07-to-1 that offers virtually no margin of safety at the current entry.
↓DeterioratingPrice targets
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus price target is revised upward to at least $14.15 — more than 20% above the current price — restoring a positive and material risk/reward profile.
CounterRising on-balance volume signals some buying interest persists despite the unfavorable price/target relationship; if a positive surprise triggers analyst target upgrades, the negative asymmetry could resolve rapidly without requiring a price pullback.
A forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9x and a PEG of 0.38 suggest the market is pricing in minimal earnings growth expectations, leaving room for multiple expansion if the company continues to deliver on its profit trajectory.
Tripped↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 15x and PEG remains under 0.75 over the next 12 months as earnings estimates hold or improve.
CounterCheap multiples in the context of mixed recent earnings — one beat, one miss, one in-line over the last three quarters — may reflect rational skepticism about whether the growth implied by the low PEG is achievable; a second consecutive miss could compress the multiple further without valuation support.
A Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9 — a perfect reading across nine profitability, leverage, and efficiency tests — indicates broad fundamental strength that is inconsistent with the depressed price action and may represent an eventual catalyst for re-rating.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score stays at 8 or above over the next two annual reporting periods.
CounterPiotroski scores are backward-looking annual metrics that may lag near-term deterioration; the score coexists with the stock trading below its 200-day moving average, suggesting the market is already pricing in a reversal of the favorable conditions underlying the score.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.6 |
| ROA | 2.6 |
| Gross margin | 4.9 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 1.8 |
| Current ratio | 6.5 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
Sentiment
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.0 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 6.3 |
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 3.4 |
| 52w position | 5.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 0.2 |
| volatility | 4.5 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.1 |
- ▸High IV: 105%
Catalyst
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.2 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:79d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.9=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.91
Upside
-14.1%
Downside
7.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.2<4.5 outcome against Value at 7.0 and asymmetric R:R of -1.91.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.0, Growth at 6.8, and Insider at 5.0; the weakest are Momentum at 3.2, Peer rank at 3.6, and Quality at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.91 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Valuation Discount To GrowthTripped
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 18x without a corresponding upward revision to earnings estimates.
- P2Broad Financial Health Piotroski
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 7 in the next annual reporting period.
- P3Dividend Yield Safety Concern
Trip ifFree cash flow per share exceeds the annualized dividend per share for 2 consecutive reporting periods.
- P4Price Above Target Poor Asymmetry
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target rises above $14.15, restoring upside of more than 20% from current levels.