Value
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 4.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 40.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.24
CCJ · Why this verdict
Why Cameco (CCJ) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Cameco offers 42.4% upside to the analyst target after a 43% drawdown and a 9/9 Piotroski score, but the stock is in a confirmed downtrend, trades at a 42.1x forward P/E and has weak cash conversion.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The price of $76.91 is 42.4% below the $109.52 analyst target, with a reward-to-risk of 4.79 against 8.9% downside to the stop. Upside pct | The stock recovers a meaningful part of its drawdown toward the analyst target over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 43% drawdown in a confirmed downtrend may reflect lower expectations for uranium prices, and light analyst coverage means targets may be too high. | ||
The price is below its 200-day average with the average sloping down 1.4% per 30 days, and a volume surge of 2.7x average came on a selloff. Momentum breakdown | The price reclaims its 200-day moving average within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume and a high-volume selloff suggest distribution, and the stop is only 8.9% below the price. | ||
Cameco trades at a forward P/E of 42.1x, a high multiple, even though the PEG is only 0.24 because of strong projected earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth materializes so the forward multiple compresses toward 30x. | →Stable |
| CounterA low PEG depends on forecast earnings growth, and the latest quarter missed badly (EPS $0.18 against a $0.38 estimate). | ||
Earnings quality is a red flag, with free cash flow at only 47% of net income and no competitive moat, despite a 9/9 Piotroski score. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow to net income recovers above 70% over the next four quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLow cash conversion in a capital-intensive mining business can persist, and quality scores below average limit the valuation. | ||
Cameco has 2 beats and 1 miss in the quarters with reported results, and an average surprise of -25.3% driven by a 52.1% miss in July. Earnings track record | EPS beats consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe beats of 38% and 13% came earlier, and the October quarter has no reported actual, so the record is incomplete and the trend is negative. | ||
The price of $76.91 is 42.4% below the $109.52 analyst target, with a reward-to-risk of 4.79 against 8.9% downside to the stop.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- The stock recovers a meaningful part of its drawdown toward the analyst target over 12 months.
CounterA 43% drawdown in a confirmed downtrend may reflect lower expectations for uranium prices, and light analyst coverage means targets may be too high.
The price is below its 200-day average with the average sloping down 1.4% per 30 days, and a volume surge of 2.7x average came on a selloff.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price reclaims its 200-day moving average within 12 months.
CounterFalling on-balance volume and a high-volume selloff suggest distribution, and the stop is only 8.9% below the price.
Cameco trades at a forward P/E of 42.1x, a high multiple, even though the PEG is only 0.24 because of strong projected earnings growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth materializes so the forward multiple compresses toward 30x.
CounterA low PEG depends on forecast earnings growth, and the latest quarter missed badly (EPS $0.18 against a $0.38 estimate).
Earnings quality is a red flag, with free cash flow at only 47% of net income and no competitive moat, despite a 9/9 Piotroski score.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow to net income recovers above 70% over the next four quarters.
CounterLow cash conversion in a capital-intensive mining business can persist, and quality scores below average limit the valuation.
Cameco has 2 beats and 1 miss in the quarters with reported results, and an average surprise of -25.3% driven by a 52.1% miss in July.
↑ImprovingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- EPS beats consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe beats of 38% and 13% came earlier, and the October quarter has no reported actual, so the record is incomplete and the trend is negative.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.9 |
| ROA | 1.9 |
| Gross margin | 2.8 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 5.7 |
| Current ratio | 8.6 |
| FCF quality | 4.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 50% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 6.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.9 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 65%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.0 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 1.7 |
Technical
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 0.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 0.3 |
| put call | 5.3 |
| implied vol | 3.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 9.4 |
- ▸Above max pain $65
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.2% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:4.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:100d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.46
Upside
+43.6%
Downside
9.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -46% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: ASYMMETRY:4.5>=1.5. Top dim: Technical at 6.8; weakest: Momentum at 2.5. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 6.8, Sentiment at 6.7, and Growth at 6.3; the weakest are Momentum at 2.5, Peer rank at 3.7, and Catalyst at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.46 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Large Analyst Upside
Trip ifUpside to the analyst target falls below 20% from the current 42.4%.
- P2Confirmed Downtrend Momentum
Trip ifThe 200-day average slope falls below -4% per 30 days from the current -1.4%.
- P3High Forward Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 55x from the current 42.1x.
- P4Weak Cash Conversion No Moat
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 30% from the current 47%.
- P5Mixed Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.