Value
8.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
CC · Why this verdict
Why Chemours Company (The) (CC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Chemours is deeply discounted (forward P/E 7.3x, 52% drawdown) with modest insider buying, but quality is below the floor (2.4), revenue is declining 2%, and earnings land tomorrow with a 14% short interest.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Insiders bought $488,619, or 0.024% of market cap, and the price of $13.53 is 6.1% below the $14.36 analyst target. Insider breakdown | Insider buying continues and upside to the analyst target rises above 15% after earnings. | →Stable |
| CounterThe insider purchase is small, and 6.1% upside against 7.7% downside to the stop is an unfavorable reward-to-risk of 0.79. | ||
Chemours trades at a forward P/E of 7.3x with a PEG of 0.04, which the data calls attractively valued after a 52% drawdown. Valuation breakdown | Earnings recover enough that the stock re-rates toward the analyst target over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA near-zero PEG rests on a rebound from very low earnings, and net margin scores 0.0, so the multiple may be a value trap. | ||
Business quality scores 2.4, below the 4.0 floor, with a thin operating margin (0.5 score), no competitive moat and flagged quality concerns. Quality breakdown | Quality score recovers above 4.0 as margins improve. | →Stable |
| CounterPersistently low margins in a commodity-like chemical business leave little cushion against price declines. | ||
Revenue is declining 2%, and the revenue growth rank among peers is in the bottom tier, offsetting strong earnings growth from a low base. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth turns positive above 0% within the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA weak revenue line means earnings recovery depends on cost cuts, which have limits. | ||
Earnings are due in 1 day, with 14% short interest and a put/call ratio of 2.52, against a record of 2 beats and 1 miss in the last four quarters. Days to earnings | EPS beats consensus tomorrow and in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh short interest, elevated put positioning and 98% implied volatility signal the market expects a sharp move that can go either way. | ||
Insiders bought $488,619, or 0.024% of market cap, and the price of $13.53 is 6.1% below the $14.36 analyst target.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider buying continues and upside to the analyst target rises above 15% after earnings.
CounterThe insider purchase is small, and 6.1% upside against 7.7% downside to the stop is an unfavorable reward-to-risk of 0.79.
Chemours trades at a forward P/E of 7.3x with a PEG of 0.04, which the data calls attractively valued after a 52% drawdown.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings recover enough that the stock re-rates toward the analyst target over 12 months.
CounterA near-zero PEG rests on a rebound from very low earnings, and net margin scores 0.0, so the multiple may be a value trap.
Business quality scores 2.4, below the 4.0 floor, with a thin operating margin (0.5 score), no competitive moat and flagged quality concerns.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score recovers above 4.0 as margins improve.
CounterPersistently low margins in a commodity-like chemical business leave little cushion against price declines.
Revenue is declining 2%, and the revenue growth rank among peers is in the bottom tier, offsetting strong earnings growth from a low base.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive above 0% within the next four quarters.
CounterA weak revenue line means earnings recovery depends on cost cuts, which have limits.
Earnings are due in 1 day, with 14% short interest and a put/call ratio of 2.52, against a record of 2 beats and 1 miss in the last four quarters.
↑ImprovingDays to earnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats consensus tomorrow and in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterHigh short interest, elevated put positioning and 98% implied volatility signal the market expects a sharp move that can go either way.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.5 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| Moat | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 5.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.6%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.3 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.3 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 26%
Insider
6.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.4 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $488,619 (0.025% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.3 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 0.5 |
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.6 |
| support resistance | 7.0 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (10.0%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.1 |
| days to cover | 3.3 |
| volatility | 1.6 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.5 |
| beta | 5.1 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.09
- ▸High IV: 77%
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.11
Upside
+9.7%
Downside
8.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=8.2
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -54% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.2<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.2 and asymmetric R:R of 1.11.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Insider at 6.6, and Catalyst at 6.2; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.3, Quality at 2.4, and Peer rank at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.11 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Forward Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 12x from the current 7.3x.
- P2Weak Quality No Moat
Trip ifQuality score stays below 2.0 from the current 2.4 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Declining Revenue
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below -5% YoY from the current -2%.
- P4Insider Buying And Analyst Upside
Trip ifInsider net buying drops to $0 while upside to the analyst target stays below 5%.
- P5Earnings Binary Event Short Interest
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.