Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.6 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 6.1 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.22
- ▸Attractively valued
CBZ · Why this verdict
Why CBIZ (CBZ) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CBIZ is attractively valued (forward P/E 12.3x) with excellent cash conversion, but the price is 15.0% above the analyst target, estimates are falling 35.7% and earnings quality is mixed.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
CBIZ trades at a forward P/E of 12.3x with a PEG of 1.22, which the data calls attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Earnings estimates stabilize so the forward multiple does not rise above current levels. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimates have dropped 35.7% in 30 days, so the forward multiple may be understated if earnings fall further. | ||
Free cash flow is 166% of net income, an excellent cash conversion rate, though the business has no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow to net income stays above 100% over the next four quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterNet income is low (net margin score 2.3), so a high ratio may reflect depressed earnings rather than strong cash generation. | ||
The price of $54.98 is above the $46.75 analyst target, with upside of -15.0% (target reached), and sits 1.6% below the 52-week high. Upside pct | Analyst targets are raised toward the share price, or the stock consolidates without a drop. | →Stable |
| CounterPositive momentum, rising on-balance volume and institutional accumulation could keep the price elevated despite lagging targets. | ||
Analyst estimates are down 35.7% over 30 days, a negative sentiment proxy that points to weakening earnings expectations. Catalyst breakdown | Estimate cuts stop and estimates stabilize within the next two quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterQuarterly estimates are volatile for this company (one quarter estimated at -0.66 per share), so the drop may reflect seasonal noise. | ||
CBIZ has 2 beats and 2 misses in the last four quarters, with the latest a 3.97% miss, and an average surprise of 6.5%. Earnings track record | EPS beats consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLarge beats of 26% and 10% inflate the average, while the most recent quarter was a miss. | ||
CBIZ trades at a forward P/E of 12.3x with a PEG of 1.22, which the data calls attractively valued.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings estimates stabilize so the forward multiple does not rise above current levels.
CounterEstimates have dropped 35.7% in 30 days, so the forward multiple may be understated if earnings fall further.
Free cash flow is 166% of net income, an excellent cash conversion rate, though the business has no competitive moat.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow to net income stays above 100% over the next four quarters.
CounterNet income is low (net margin score 2.3), so a high ratio may reflect depressed earnings rather than strong cash generation.
The price of $54.98 is above the $46.75 analyst target, with upside of -15.0% (target reached), and sits 1.6% below the 52-week high.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised toward the share price, or the stock consolidates without a drop.
CounterPositive momentum, rising on-balance volume and institutional accumulation could keep the price elevated despite lagging targets.
Analyst estimates are down 35.7% over 30 days, a negative sentiment proxy that points to weakening earnings expectations.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Estimate cuts stop and estimates stabilize within the next two quarters.
CounterQuarterly estimates are volatile for this company (one quarter estimated at -0.66 per share), so the drop may reflect seasonal noise.
CBIZ has 2 beats and 2 misses in the last four quarters, with the latest a 3.97% miss, and an average surprise of 6.5%.
↑ImprovingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- EPS beats consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterLarge beats of 26% and 10% inflate the average, while the most recent quarter was a miss.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.3 |
| ROA | 2.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 5.3 |
| Net margin | 2.3 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 166% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
| EPS growth | 7.4 |
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 3.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 5.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.3 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.6 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.5 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 1.7 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.5 |
| support resistance | 0.6 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 9.4 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.8 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 5.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.8 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:111d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.00
Upside
-15.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.8, Value at 7.1, and Momentum at 7.1; the weakest are Technical at 3.5, Peer rank at 4.0, and Quality at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 16x from the current 12.3x.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 80% from the current 166%.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifDownside to the stop level exceeds 20% while the price stays more than 10% above the analyst target.
- P4Falling Earnings Estimates
Trip ifAnalyst estimates fall more than 50% over 30 days from the current -35.7%.
- P5Mixed Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.