Value
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.6 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 6.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.03
- ▸Attractively valued
CBZ · Why this verdict
Why CBIZ (CBZ) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
CBIZ trades at a compelling valuation with strong earnings delivery and superior cash conversion, but the stock is in a confirmed price downtrend with elevated leverage and hedging activity — the technical setup must stabilize before the valuation case can be acted upon.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the moving average slope declining at approximately 11% over the past 30 days, accompanied by falling on-balance volume — all consistent with a confirmed downtrend that has triggered a hard technical block. Momentum breakdown | The downtrend is falsified when the stock closes above its 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns positive, sustained for at least 30 consecutive days. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe MACD is improving and the RSI has recovered to 61 despite the price being below the 200-day line, suggesting the selling pressure may be losing momentum and a recovery setup could develop ahead of the next earnings catalyst. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 7.5 times and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.20 place the stock among the cheapest in its peer group, with analysts seeing approximately 21% upside to consensus fair value from the current price. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple expands toward 12 times over the next four quarters as earnings continue to grow and the technical setup normalizes, closing the gap to analyst fair value. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterDeep value in a downtrending stock with leverage can persist for extended periods; if the earnings growth rate disappoints or leverage concerns escalate, the cheap multiple may widen further rather than compress. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, most recently delivering a 10.1% positive surprise, with an average upside surprise of approximately 7.3% across all four periods. Earnings | EPS surprises remain positive for the next 2 consecutive quarters, sustaining the beat pattern and supporting the valuation recovery case. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe second-most-recent quarter produced a miss of 6.2%, breaking what was otherwise a clean streak; the underlying quarterly seasonality appears uneven, which could create additional miss risk in the February reporting period. | ||
A debt-to-equity ratio of 1.1 has been flagged as a meaningful penalty to the overall quality profile, and the elevated put/call ratio of 1.67 signals that options market participants are positioned defensively — reinforcing the cautious technical picture. Bear case | Leverage concerns abate when the debt-to-equity ratio falls below 0.7 and the put/call ratio normalizes below 0.8 for at least 4 consecutive weeks. | →Stable |
| CounterA moderate debt load is common in specialty services businesses that have recently made acquisitions; if earnings continue to grow and free cash flow is deployed toward debt reduction, the leverage risk diminishes without a change in the business model. | ||
Free cash flow equivalent to 128% of net income and a Piotroski financial health score of 7 out of 9 demonstrate that reported earnings are backed by real cash generation and that balance-sheet health is sound despite the elevated leverage. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow continues to exceed 100% of net income for the next four quarters, confirming that the cash conversion is structural rather than a one-period phenomenon. | →Stable |
| CounterThe absence of a competitive moat means cash flow quality depends on market conditions and pricing discipline; a shift in competitive intensity or client attrition could compress free cash flow generation faster than the headline earnings figures would suggest. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the moving average slope declining at approximately 11% over the past 30 days, accompanied by falling on-balance volume — all consistent with a confirmed downtrend that has triggered a hard technical block.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The downtrend is falsified when the stock closes above its 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns positive, sustained for at least 30 consecutive days.
CounterThe MACD is improving and the RSI has recovered to 61 despite the price being below the 200-day line, suggesting the selling pressure may be losing momentum and a recovery setup could develop ahead of the next earnings catalyst.
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 7.5 times and a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.20 place the stock among the cheapest in its peer group, with analysts seeing approximately 21% upside to consensus fair value from the current price.
Tripped→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple expands toward 12 times over the next four quarters as earnings continue to grow and the technical setup normalizes, closing the gap to analyst fair value.
CounterDeep value in a downtrending stock with leverage can persist for extended periods; if the earnings growth rate disappoints or leverage concerns escalate, the cheap multiple may widen further rather than compress.
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, most recently delivering a 10.1% positive surprise, with an average upside surprise of approximately 7.3% across all four periods.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprises remain positive for the next 2 consecutive quarters, sustaining the beat pattern and supporting the valuation recovery case.
CounterThe second-most-recent quarter produced a miss of 6.2%, breaking what was otherwise a clean streak; the underlying quarterly seasonality appears uneven, which could create additional miss risk in the February reporting period.
A debt-to-equity ratio of 1.1 has been flagged as a meaningful penalty to the overall quality profile, and the elevated put/call ratio of 1.67 signals that options market participants are positioned defensively — reinforcing the cautious technical picture.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Leverage concerns abate when the debt-to-equity ratio falls below 0.7 and the put/call ratio normalizes below 0.8 for at least 4 consecutive weeks.
CounterA moderate debt load is common in specialty services businesses that have recently made acquisitions; if earnings continue to grow and free cash flow is deployed toward debt reduction, the leverage risk diminishes without a change in the business model.
Free cash flow equivalent to 128% of net income and a Piotroski financial health score of 7 out of 9 demonstrate that reported earnings are backed by real cash generation and that balance-sheet health is sound despite the elevated leverage.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow continues to exceed 100% of net income for the next four quarters, confirming that the cash conversion is structural rather than a one-period phenomenon.
CounterThe absence of a competitive moat means cash flow quality depends on market conditions and pricing discipline; a shift in competitive intensity or client attrition could compress free cash flow generation faster than the headline earnings figures would suggest.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.7 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 2.8 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 9.3 |
| Moat | 3.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 128% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
| EPS growth | 9.5 |
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 74)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
| erm sentiment | 6.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.6 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 2.1 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 2.7 |
| 52w position | 0.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.7 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.2 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 4.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸High IV: 79%
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.54
Upside
-8.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -48% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.54 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Value at 7.2, and Growth at 6.2; the weakest are Technical at 2.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.4, and Peer rank at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.54 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Confirmed Downtrend Falling Volume
Trip ifStock closes above its 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns positive, both sustained for 30 consecutive days.
- P2Deep Value Compressed MultipleTripped
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 15x as earnings estimates are revised materially downward.
- P3Earnings Beat Capability
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Leverage Elevated Hedging Risk
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio falls below 0.7 and put/call ratio drops below 0.8 for 4 consecutive weeks.
- P5Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 80% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.