Value
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.3 |
| P/S | 5.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.8 |
| PEG | 3.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.3x
- ▸PEG: 3.09
CBOE · Why this verdict
Why Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Cboe is a wide-moat, high-quality exchange operator and industry growth leader in a breakout, but the price is 9.2% above the analyst target and 68% of revenue sits in options and futures.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Cboe has a wide economic moat, a 9/9 Piotroski score, 27% ROE and 28% margins, marking a high-quality compounder. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 20% and margins above 25% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe earnings-quality warning (free cash flow only 57% of net income) suggests reported profits are not fully converting to cash. | ||
Cboe ranks as an industry growth leader, with earnings growth scored 10 out of 10 and revenue growth scored 7.3. Peer-rank breakdown | Earnings keep growing at double-digit rates over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterExchange volumes are tied to market volatility, so growth can reverse quickly when trading activity normalizes. | ||
Options and futures segments account for 68.0% of revenue, a single-product concentration flagged as 1 high risk. Bear case | Segment mix holds or diversifies without losing share in options. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCompetition from rival exchanges or regulatory fee changes in options could hit the core franchise. | ||
The price of $335.53 is above the $304.68 analyst target, with upside of -9.2% (target reached), and downside to the stop is 15.0%. Upside pct | Analyst targets are revised up toward the share price, restoring positive upside. | →Stable |
| CounterStrong momentum and a golden-cross breakout could keep the price rising, making the lagging target a poor guide. | ||
Cboe trades at a forward P/E of 21.9x with a PEG of 2.97, a full price for a business with no earnings history shown. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth compresses the PEG below 2.5 without a price decline. | →Stable |
| CounterQuality exchange franchises usually earn premium multiples, so the valuation may remain stretched for long periods. | ||
Cboe has a wide economic moat, a 9/9 Piotroski score, 27% ROE and 28% margins, marking a high-quality compounder.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 20% and margins above 25% over the next 12 months.
CounterThe earnings-quality warning (free cash flow only 57% of net income) suggests reported profits are not fully converting to cash.
Cboe ranks as an industry growth leader, with earnings growth scored 10 out of 10 and revenue growth scored 7.3.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings keep growing at double-digit rates over the next 12 months.
CounterExchange volumes are tied to market volatility, so growth can reverse quickly when trading activity normalizes.
Options and futures segments account for 68.0% of revenue, a single-product concentration flagged as 1 high risk.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Segment mix holds or diversifies without losing share in options.
CounterCompetition from rival exchanges or regulatory fee changes in options could hit the core franchise.
The price of $335.53 is above the $304.68 analyst target, with upside of -9.2% (target reached), and downside to the stop is 15.0%.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are revised up toward the share price, restoring positive upside.
CounterStrong momentum and a golden-cross breakout could keep the price rising, making the lagging target a poor guide.
Cboe trades at a forward P/E of 21.9x with a PEG of 2.97, a full price for a business with no earnings history shown.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth compresses the PEG below 2.5 without a price decline.
CounterQuality exchange franchises usually earn premium multiples, so the valuation may remain stretched for long periods.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.1 |
| ROA | 7.9 |
| Gross margin | 6.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.8 |
| FCF quality | 4.5 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 27%
- ▸Strong margins: 28%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 57% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.7 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.4 |
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.5 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $261,376 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 5.3 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 2.9 |
| put call | 0.9 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.87
- ▸Above max pain $195
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.1 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $345.21 vs the analyst target $318.72: -7.7% upside; No upside left.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_D_BALANCED|V8:TARGET_REACHED|SANITY:BUY+upside<=0Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:93d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
- 8K_SERIOUS:2.05
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.51
Upside
-7.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The D-path balanced-high-score trigger fired: quality 8.1 and momentum 7.3 both cleared their gates at R:R of -0.51.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.7, Quality at 8.1, and Momentum at 7.3; the weakest are Technical at 3.7, Value at 4.4, and Insider at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.51 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Compounder Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 45% from the current 57%.
- P2Industry Growth Leadership
Trip ifEarnings growth falls below 5% YoY from the current double-digit pace.
- P3Options Futures Concentration
Trip ifOptions and futures revenue share exceeds 75% from the current 68.0%.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifDownside to the stop level exceeds 20% while the price stays above the analyst target.
- P5Full Valuation Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 26x from the current 21.9x.