Value
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 3.8 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.4x
- ▸PEG: 2.78
CB · Why this verdict
Why Chubb (CB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Chubb has positive momentum and a defensive insurance profile with a golden cross, but the price is above the analyst target and growth is weak, leaving little upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Chubb earns strong 18% margins and a 7/9 Piotroski score, but the data finds no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Net margin stays above 15% through the underwriting cycle. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWithout a moat, insurance pricing cycles and catastrophe losses can erode margins, as a binary industry outcome. | ||
Chubb shows positive momentum with rising on-balance volume accumulation and the price above its 200-day average, with a golden cross setup. Momentum breakdown | The price holds above its 200-day moving average over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe price sits only 1.3% below its 52-week high and is near the upper Bollinger band, so a pullback is likely before further gains. | ||
The price of $364.12 is above the $335.90 analyst target, with upside of -7.8% (target reached). Upside pct | Analyst targets are raised toward the share price, restoring positive upside. | →Stable |
| CounterInsurers often trade above stale targets while earnings compound, so price above target may not imply downside. | ||
Chubb trades at a forward P/E of 12.4x with a PEG of 2.74, and growth scores are low (revenue 2.6, earnings 2.9), so the multiple is not especially cheap for the growth. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth accelerates enough to bring the PEG below 2. | →Stable |
| CounterSlow growth means returns depend on multiple expansion, which is hard from a stock at a 52-week high. | ||
Insiders sold about $6.7M over 90 days across 3 sales with no buys, a bearish signal but only 0.005% of market cap. Insider transaction read | Insider selling stays negligible, under $10M per 90 days. | →Stable |
| CounterThe selling is immaterial and likely routine, so it carries little information about the business. | ||
Chubb earns strong 18% margins and a 7/9 Piotroski score, but the data finds no competitive moat.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margin stays above 15% through the underwriting cycle.
CounterWithout a moat, insurance pricing cycles and catastrophe losses can erode margins, as a binary industry outcome.
Chubb shows positive momentum with rising on-balance volume accumulation and the price above its 200-day average, with a golden cross setup.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The price holds above its 200-day moving average over the next 12 months.
CounterThe price sits only 1.3% below its 52-week high and is near the upper Bollinger band, so a pullback is likely before further gains.
The price of $364.12 is above the $335.90 analyst target, with upside of -7.8% (target reached).
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised toward the share price, restoring positive upside.
CounterInsurers often trade above stale targets while earnings compound, so price above target may not imply downside.
Chubb trades at a forward P/E of 12.4x with a PEG of 2.74, and growth scores are low (revenue 2.6, earnings 2.9), so the multiple is not especially cheap for the growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth accelerates enough to bring the PEG below 2.
CounterSlow growth means returns depend on multiple expansion, which is hard from a stock at a 52-week high.
Insiders sold about $6.7M over 90 days across 3 sales with no buys, a bearish signal but only 0.005% of market cap.
→StableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Insider selling stays negligible, under $10M per 90 days.
CounterThe selling is immaterial and likely routine, so it carries little information about the business.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.8 |
| ROA | 2.1 |
| Gross margin | 2.0 |
| Op margin | 8.2 |
| Net margin | 9.1 |
| Current ratio | 1.6 |
| FCF quality | 7.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
2.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.6 |
| EPS growth | 2.9 |
Momentum
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $11,748,526 (0.008% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 5.3 |
| growth rank | 3.2 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.7 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 9.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.6 |
| days to cover | 9.0 |
| volatility | 8.0 |
| put call | 8.5 |
| implied vol | 6.6 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.7 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.8 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:90d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.93
Upside
-8.4%
Downside
9.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.2>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 8.2; weakest: Growth at 2.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.2, Momentum at 7.2, and Catalyst at 6.6; the weakest are Growth at 2.8, Peer rank at 3.8, and Technical at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.93 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Positive Price Momentum
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day moving average and momentum score drops below 4.5 from the current 7.4.
- P2Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifDownside to the stop level exceeds 15% while the price stays more than 5% above the analyst target.
- P3Modest Valuation And Growth
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 15x from the current 12.4x.
- P4Strong Margins No Moat
Trip ifNet margin falls below 12% from the current 18%.
- P5Insider Selling Bearish
Trip ifInsider net selling exceeds $25M over 90 days.