Value
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.5 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
CALX · Why this verdict
Why Calix (CALX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Calix pairs 21% growth, a wide moat and a Piotroski score of 9/9 with a forward P/E near 16x and 47% analyst upside, but earnings arrive in 1 day and the stock is in a downtrend.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 21% YoY and the business is rated as having a wide economic moat. Growth breakdown | Growth stays above 15% YoY over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterTelecom broadband spending is lumpy and growth depends on a few carrier customers. | ||
Forward P/E is 16.0x with a PEG of 0.08, cheap relative to growth. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays under 20x. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe PEG depends on growth estimates that may not hold. | ||
Calix has beaten EPS estimates in 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of about 13.5%. Earnings | EPS keeps beating consensus through the next report and beyond. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEarnings come in 1 day, and a binary event could break the streak. | ||
Price is below the 200-day average with its slope down 6.1% over 30 days, and chipsets come from sole-source suppliers. Bear case | Price reclaims the 200-day average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSole-source chipset dependence can cause supply shortfalls that hit shipments. | ||
Revenue is growing 21% YoY and the business is rated as having a wide economic moat.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Growth stays above 15% YoY over 12 months.
CounterTelecom broadband spending is lumpy and growth depends on a few carrier customers.
Forward P/E is 16.0x with a PEG of 0.08, cheap relative to growth.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays under 20x.
CounterThe PEG depends on growth estimates that may not hold.
Calix has beaten EPS estimates in 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of about 13.5%.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS keeps beating consensus through the next report and beyond.
CounterEarnings come in 1 day, and a binary event could break the streak.
Price is below the 200-day average with its slope down 6.1% over 30 days, and chipsets come from sole-source suppliers.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average.
CounterSole-source chipset dependence can cause supply shortfalls that hit shipments.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.0 |
| ROA | 2.7 |
| Gross margin | 7.1 |
| Op margin | 2.2 |
| Net margin | 2.0 |
| Current ratio | 10.0 |
| FCF quality | 7.3 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
8.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 5.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 84%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 3.5 |
| growth rank | 4.6 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 7.9 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.3 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 1.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸Above max pain $20
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:6.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:81d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.2<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
6.86
Upside
+60.2%
Downside
8.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -52% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.2<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 6.86 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.0, Value at 7.0, and Catalyst at 6.5; the weakest are Momentum at 2.2, Peer rank at 5.6, and Quality at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.86 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Wide Moat
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 12% YoY.
- P2Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Cheap Vs Growth
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 22x.
- P4Downtrend Supplier Risk
Trip ifPrice stays below the 200-day average and its 30-day slope drops below -8%.