Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) Q2 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure
Key numbers
- Adjusted EPS
- $0.31
- Estimate
- $0.35
- Surprise
- -12.1%
- Revenue (period 2026-06-30)
- $158.1M
- Score at report (before → after)
- 6.1 → 6.3/10
Revenue source: mixed.
How the report landed
Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) missed the $0.35 estimate with adjusted EPS of $0.31 — a large 12.1% shortfall. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (6.1/10) to Sell at 6.3/10 after the report — the engine's score rose despite the miss.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates BXMT Sell at 5.0/10.
0 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's -12.1% surprise compares with a -232.9% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2026-10-28.
What supports the rating
- Attractive valuation
- Analyst upside: 32%
What argues against it
- Concentration risk — Counterparty: BXMT Advisors L.L.C.
- V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2)
- Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $12.39
- Price target
- $16.41
- Stop
- $11.94
- Upside to target
- +32.4%
- Reward-to-risk
- 5.8:1
The stock trades at 157.1× trailing but 8.1× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Risk check: RSI 15 — a level conventionally read as oversold.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-09-24 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
BXMT at TrendMatrix's latest read
REIT quarters hinge on occupancy, rate exposure, and FFO rather than headline EPS, which mechanically distorts under depreciation.
- Industry
- REIT - Mortgage
- Market cap
- $2.12B
- P/E (fwd)
- 8.1
- P/E (ttm)
- 157.1
- 52-week range
- $12.53–$20.67
- Off 52-week high
- 40.1%
- RSI (14)
- 15
- Volume vs avg
- 1.15×
- Score today
- 5.0/10