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BXMTBlackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.Sell5.1·$14.21+0.32%

Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) Q2 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage

MISS-12.1% vs estimateEPS $0.31 vs $0.35 estVerdict Buy (Wait)Sell

Reported

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure

Event detail · Q2 2026

Key numbers

Reported EPS
$0.31
Estimate
$0.35
Surprise
-12.1%
Revenue (period 2026-06-30)
$158.1M
Score at report (before → after)
6.16.3/10

Revenue source: mixed.

Report record · Q2 2026

How the report landed

Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) missed the $0.35 estimate with diluted EPS of $0.31 — a large 12.1% shortfall. TrendMatrix's engine moved from Buy (Wait) (6.1/10) to Sell at 6.3/10 after the report — the engine's score rose despite the miss.

Current read · as of 2026-09-04

Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now

TrendMatrix currently rates BXMT Sell at 5.1/10.

0 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's -12.1% surprise compares with a -232.9% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2026-10-28.

What supports the rating

  • Attractive valuation

What argues against it

  • Concentration risk — Counterparty: BXMT Advisors L.L.C.
  • V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2)
  • Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2

This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.

Current engine read

The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks

Current price
$14.21
Price target
$16.41
Stop
$13.64
Upside to target
+15.5%
Reward-to-risk
3.1:1

The stock trades at 177.0× trailing but 9.1× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.

Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-09-04 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.

Real Estate context

BXMT at TrendMatrix's latest read

REIT quarters hinge on occupancy, rate exposure, and FFO rather than headline EPS, which mechanically distorts under depreciation.

Industry
REIT - Mortgage
Market cap
$2.39B
P/E (fwd)
9.1
P/E (ttm)
177.0
52-week range
$13.61$20.67
Off 52-week high
31.3%
RSI (14)
49
Volume vs avg
0.38×
Score today
5.1/10

Earnings figures are sourced from TrendMatrix’s pipeline (EPS: existing earnings extraction; revenue: SEC XBRL company facts where available, yfinance-provisional otherwise). Not a buy/sell rating, a price target, or investment advice — see the current verdict on the stock’s main page for TrendMatrix’s live read.

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