Value
5.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.8 |
| P/S | 4.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 6.3 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.19
BX · Why this verdict
Why Blackstone (BX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BX is a high-quality asset manager with 32% ROE and a 4.4% dividend, but weak growth, a confirmed downtrend, heavy insider selling and only 5.5% upside to the analyst target argue for holding rather than adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is high at 8.3/10, with 32% ROE and 23% margins. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 25% and margins stay near 23%. | →Stable |
| CounterAsset managers' margins depend on performance fees and asset valuations, which can fall quickly in a downturn. | ||
Growth is weak: revenue is slightly declining and growth is scored 2.5/10 (revenue 2.4, earnings 2.7). Growth breakdown | Revenue and earnings growth stay in low single digits. | →Stable |
| CounterA decline of about 0% is essentially flat, and fee-related earnings in asset management can reaccelerate with deal activity. | ||
At $118.51 the stock is 5.5% below the $124.98 analyst target against 11.0% downside, a reward-to-risk of 0.49. Upside pct | Upside stays limited unless the target is raised above $125. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst rating and price target sentiment scores are 7.5 and 7.4, so analysts may lift targets on stronger deal flow. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend, below its 200-day average with a -4.1%/30d slope and volume distribution (falling OBV). Momentum breakdown | Price stays below its 200-day average over the next few quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMACD is at the top of its range and news sentiment is the main negative, so a recovery setup is plausible. | ||
Insiders sold $24,446,332 (7 sales) in 90 days against only $62,426 of buying, a net $24,383,906. Insider | Insider selling continues to outweigh buying. | →Stable |
| CounterThe amount is only 0.017% of market cap and likely reflects routine founder and executive liquidity rather than a view on the business. | ||
Quality is high at 8.3/10, with 32% ROE and 23% margins.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 25% and margins stay near 23%.
CounterAsset managers' margins depend on performance fees and asset valuations, which can fall quickly in a downturn.
Growth is weak: revenue is slightly declining and growth is scored 2.5/10 (revenue 2.4, earnings 2.7).
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue and earnings growth stay in low single digits.
CounterA decline of about 0% is essentially flat, and fee-related earnings in asset management can reaccelerate with deal activity.
At $118.51 the stock is 5.5% below the $124.98 analyst target against 11.0% downside, a reward-to-risk of 0.49.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Upside stays limited unless the target is raised above $125.
CounterAnalyst rating and price target sentiment scores are 7.5 and 7.4, so analysts may lift targets on stronger deal flow.
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend, below its 200-day average with a -4.1%/30d slope and volume distribution (falling OBV).
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price stays below its 200-day average over the next few quarters.
CounterMACD is at the top of its range and news sentiment is the main negative, so a recovery setup is plausible.
Insiders sold $24,446,332 (7 sales) in 90 days against only $62,426 of buying, a net $24,383,906.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling continues to outweigh buying.
CounterThe amount is only 0.017% of market cap and likely reflects routine founder and executive liquidity rather than a view on the business.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 9.5 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.9 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 32%
- ▸Strong margins: 23%
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
2.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.4 |
| EPS growth | 2.7 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -0%
Momentum
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 4.2 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.9 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
Insider
6.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $20,317,418 (0.014% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.2 |
| quality rank | 6.4 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 5.5 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 3.6 |
| put call | 6.8 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.9 |
| debt equity | 6.9 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $75
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.8 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 4.3%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- DEATH_CROSS:QUALITY_MOMENTUM_EXEMPT
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:85d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:quality=8.3>=7.5+momentum=7.3>=5.0 exempted
Reward-to-Risk
-0.03
Upside
-0.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.53>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.3>=5.5. Top dim: Quality at 8.3; weakest: Growth at 2.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.3, Momentum at 7.3, and Sentiment at 6.7; the weakest are Growth at 2.5, Technical at 2.8, and Peer rank at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Asset Manager
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 20% from current 32%.
- P2Weak Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds 8% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $140, more than 12% above the current $124.98.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice rises above its 200-day average with the 30-day slope above 0%.
- P5Large Insider Selling
Trip ifInsiders record net buying of more than $1,000,000 in 90 days.