Value
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.0 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.9 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.81
BWXT · Why this verdict
Why BWX Technologies (BWXT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BWXT combines 44.2% upside to the analyst target, 28% ROE and a perfect 4-quarter beat streak with a confirmed downtrend, weak cash conversion and leverage, with earnings due in 1 day making a wait-for-the-report stance sensible.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At $130.70 the stock is 44.2% below the $188.50 analyst target against 7.9% downside, a reward-to-risk of 5.6. Upside pct | Price moves toward the $188.50 target as earnings keep beating. | →Stable |
| CounterThe forward P/E is 25.0x and the stock is 46% off its high, so a high target may reflect stale estimates rather than recovery. | ||
Earnings beat estimates in 4 of 4 quarters, including $1.07 vs $1.04 on 2026-08-03, with an average surprise of 15%. Last 4 quarters | The beat streak continues with the report due 2026-11-02. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent beat was only 2.7%, and the earnings report is a binary event that can end the streak. | ||
Return on equity is excellent at 28% and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, but earnings quality is a red flag at 41% FCF/NI. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 20% while cash conversion stays near 41%. | →Stable |
| CounterContract-based defense work can have uneven cash timing, so low FCF/NI may reverse as milestones are billed. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend, below its 200-day average with a -3.5%/30d slope, although OBV is rising. Momentum breakdown | Price stays below its 200-day average until after the earnings report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising OBV and a strong MACD show accumulation, and a good earnings report could end the downtrend. | ||
Leverage (D/E 1.5) triggers a -1.0 penalty, and insiders sold $1,725,007 (4 sales) in 90 days with no buys. Bear case | Debt-to-equity stays near 1.5 and insider selling continues. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe sales are only 0.014% of market cap and may be routine, and defense contracts can support leverage. | ||
At $130.70 the stock is 44.2% below the $188.50 analyst target against 7.9% downside, a reward-to-risk of 5.6.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $188.50 target as earnings keep beating.
CounterThe forward P/E is 25.0x and the stock is 46% off its high, so a high target may reflect stale estimates rather than recovery.
Earnings beat estimates in 4 of 4 quarters, including $1.07 vs $1.04 on 2026-08-03, with an average surprise of 15%.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- The beat streak continues with the report due 2026-11-02.
CounterThe most recent beat was only 2.7%, and the earnings report is a binary event that can end the streak.
Return on equity is excellent at 28% and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, but earnings quality is a red flag at 41% FCF/NI.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 20% while cash conversion stays near 41%.
CounterContract-based defense work can have uneven cash timing, so low FCF/NI may reverse as milestones are billed.
The stock is in a confirmed downtrend, below its 200-day average with a -3.5%/30d slope, although OBV is rising.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price stays below its 200-day average until after the earnings report.
CounterRising OBV and a strong MACD show accumulation, and a good earnings report could end the downtrend.
Leverage (D/E 1.5) triggers a -1.0 penalty, and insiders sold $1,725,007 (4 sales) in 90 days with no buys.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity stays near 1.5 and insider selling continues.
CounterThe sales are only 0.014% of market cap and may be routine, and defense contracts can support leverage.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.4 |
| ROA | 3.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.4 |
| Op margin | 4.2 |
| Net margin | 5.1 |
| Current ratio | 8.2 |
| FCF quality | 3.3 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 28%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 41% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.0 |
| EPS growth | 4.8 |
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 3.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
- ▸Volume surge (2.0x avg) on selloff
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 72%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,725,007 (0.014% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.2 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 4.2 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.3 |
| 52w position | 0.1 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 0.9 |
| put call | 0.4 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.7 |
| debt equity | 4.0 |
| news risk | 3.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.93
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.9 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Under M&A bid. Hold for deal completion or sell if spread < 3%.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:M&A_HOLDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:5.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:110d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.88
Upside
+54.4%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -50% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.1<4.5 outcome against Sentiment at 7.3 and asymmetric R:R of 5.88.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.3, Catalyst at 6.9, and Technical at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 3.1, Peer rank at 4.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.88 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Large Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $150, more than 20% under the current $188.50.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3High Returns Weak Cash Conversion
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 18% from current 28%.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend
Trip ifPrice drops to $119.36 or lower, the stop level, more than 8% below the current $130.70.
- P5Leverage And Insider Selling
Trip ifDebt-to-equity exceeds 2.0 from current 1.5.