Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.12
- ▸Attractively valued
BWB · Why this verdict
Why Bridgewater Bancshares (BWB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BWB pairs a rare cheap-valuation-plus-strong-growth setup with a failed asymmetry gate after reaching its price target and notable recent insider selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bank trades at an attractive forward P/E of 9.9x with a PEG ratio of just 0.11, against 46% year-over-year growth, a rare combination of cheap valuation and strong growth. Bull case | The PEG ratio should re-rate toward 1.0 over the next 12 months as the market recognizes the growth-adjusted value. | ↑Improving |
| Counter46% growth off a small base can decelerate quickly for a regional bank, and the current cheap multiple may already reflect the market's skepticism about growth durability. | ||
The stock has already reached its prior price target, leaving modeled upside at -11.4% versus 13.1% downside to stop-loss, a risk/reward that fails the engine's asymmetry gate. Warnings | A revised, higher price target or a price pullback should restore a positive risk/reward over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBanks that continue compounding book value can justify repeatedly raised price targets, so a target being reached need not be a ceiling. | ||
Insiders sold roughly $1.16 million of stock over the past 90 days, about 0.193% of market cap, a level the engine flags as moderate insider selling. Insider breakdown | Insider signal should shift from bearish back toward neutral over the next two quarters if selling activity abates. | →Stable |
| CounterAt 0.193% of market cap, this is a relatively small dollar amount that may reflect routine diversification rather than a negative view of the bank's prospects. | ||
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 71 while trading above its 200-day moving average and accumulating volume, near its 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | RSI should cool into a neutral range without a material price decline over the next few months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterSustained overbought readings in strong regional-bank rallies often persist for extended periods without a correction, especially heading into an earnings report. | ||
The bank trades at an attractive forward P/E of 9.9x with a PEG ratio of just 0.11, against 46% year-over-year growth, a rare combination of cheap valuation and strong growth.
↑ImprovingBull case
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should re-rate toward 1.0 over the next 12 months as the market recognizes the growth-adjusted value.
Counter46% growth off a small base can decelerate quickly for a regional bank, and the current cheap multiple may already reflect the market's skepticism about growth durability.
The stock has already reached its prior price target, leaving modeled upside at -11.4% versus 13.1% downside to stop-loss, a risk/reward that fails the engine's asymmetry gate.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- A revised, higher price target or a price pullback should restore a positive risk/reward over the next 12 months.
CounterBanks that continue compounding book value can justify repeatedly raised price targets, so a target being reached need not be a ceiling.
Insiders sold roughly $1.16 million of stock over the past 90 days, about 0.193% of market cap, a level the engine flags as moderate insider selling.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider signal should shift from bearish back toward neutral over the next two quarters if selling activity abates.
CounterAt 0.193% of market cap, this is a relatively small dollar amount that may reflect routine diversification rather than a negative view of the bank's prospects.
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 71 while trading above its 200-day moving average and accumulating volume, near its 52-week high.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should cool into a neutral range without a material price decline over the next few months.
CounterSustained overbought readings in strong regional-bank rallies often persist for extended periods without a correction, especially heading into an earnings report.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.7 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 36%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.1 |
| EPS growth | 5.7 |
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.8 |
| MACD | 0.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.3 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 37) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.1 |
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.6 |
| holder change | 9.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,157,135 (0.200% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.2 |
| quality rank | 6.6 |
| growth rank | 6.3 |
Technical
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.6 |
| support resistance | 8.3 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 8.9 |
| volatility | 4.6 |
| implied vol | 0.1 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High IV: 79%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.40
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:89d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.20%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
-0.61
Upside
-3.8%
Downside
6.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: 8K:CLEAN. Top dim: Technical at 8.7; weakest: Momentum at 3.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.7, Value at 7.9, and Growth at 6.4; the weakest are Momentum at 3.1, Quality at 5.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.61 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation Strong Growth
Trip ifEarnings growth falls below 20% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifModeled upside stays below 0% for more than 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Notable Insider Selling
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $3 million over any rolling 90-day period.
- P4Overbought Technical Setup
Trip ifStock price falls more than 10% from the current $21.46 level within 3 months.