Value
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
BW · Why this verdict
Why Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, I (BW) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BW shows 130% YoY growth, a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak and insider buying, but quality is below the 4.0 floor, the stock is down 81% from its high and in a confirmed downtrend, so the engine produces a SELL output.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is 2.5/10, below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat and near-zero margin scores. Quality breakdown | Quality stays below 4/10 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth and an earnings turnaround could lift margins sharply, and the current ratio score is a decent 5.3. | ||
Growth is explosive at 130% YoY, with growth scored 10.0/10. Growth breakdown | Revenue and earnings keep growing at a double-digit rate over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth comes off a low base and revenue data shows an 8.2% divergence between XBRL and yfinance, so the growth rate may be less reliable than it looks. | ||
Earnings have beaten estimates in 4 of 4 quarters, including $0.07 vs $0.03 on 2026-08-10, with the next report on 2026-11-09. Last 4 quarters | The beat streak continues into the next report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterEstimates are near zero, so large percentage surprises reflect tiny bases, and a miss on the November report would end the streak. | ||
The stock is 81% off its 52-week high and below its 200-day average, with the slope falling 1.1% per 30 days and a hard-block death cross. Momentum breakdown | Price stays below its 200-day average until a trend reversal is confirmed. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising OBV shows volume accumulation and MACD is positive, so buyers may be starting to absorb the selling. | ||
Insiders bought $115,050 (2 purchases) in 90 days and institutions are accumulating, while short interest is 15% and implied volatility is 119%. Insider | Insider buying continues while volatility remains very high. | →Stable |
| CounterThe purchase is only 0.018% of market cap, and high short interest of 15% signals meaningful skepticism. | ||
Quality is 2.5/10, below the 4.0 floor, with no competitive moat and near-zero margin scores.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality stays below 4/10 over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth and an earnings turnaround could lift margins sharply, and the current ratio score is a decent 5.3.
Growth is explosive at 130% YoY, with growth scored 10.0/10.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue and earnings keep growing at a double-digit rate over the next 12 months.
CounterGrowth comes off a low base and revenue data shows an 8.2% divergence between XBRL and yfinance, so the growth rate may be less reliable than it looks.
Earnings have beaten estimates in 4 of 4 quarters, including $0.07 vs $0.03 on 2026-08-10, with the next report on 2026-11-09.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- The beat streak continues into the next report.
CounterEstimates are near zero, so large percentage surprises reflect tiny bases, and a miss on the November report would end the streak.
The stock is 81% off its 52-week high and below its 200-day average, with the slope falling 1.1% per 30 days and a hard-block death cross.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price stays below its 200-day average until a trend reversal is confirmed.
CounterRising OBV shows volume accumulation and MACD is positive, so buyers may be starting to absorb the selling.
Insiders bought $115,050 (2 purchases) in 90 days and institutions are accumulating, while short interest is 15% and implied volatility is 119%.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider buying continues while volatility remains very high.
CounterThe purchase is only 0.018% of market cap, and high short interest of 15% signals meaningful skepticism.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.6 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.3 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 130% YoY
Momentum
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 6.8 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.8 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.8 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 475%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $115,050 (0.018% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.2 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 9.6 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.3 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.7 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 137%
Catalyst
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.7<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (2)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+44.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -83% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.7<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.8, and Insider at 7.5; the weakest are Quality at 2.5, Momentum at 2.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Explosive Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Quality Below Floor
Trip ifOperating margin rises above 8% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Deep Drawdown
Trip ifPrice rises above its 200-day average with the 30-day slope above 0%.
- P5Insider Buying And Short Interest
Trip ifInsiders record net selling of more than $100,000 in 90 days.