Value
6.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.6 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.5 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.74
BUD · Why this verdict
Why Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA Sponsor (BUD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BUD is a high-quality defensive brewer with a perfect 9/9 Piotroski score and safe dividend, but the price is within 2.3% of the analyst target and momentum is weak, so the stance is to maintain rather than add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Momentum is weak at 3.9/10 with volume distribution (falling OBV), and the put/call ratio is elevated at 1.94, despite the price holding above the 200-day average. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score stays below 5/10 over the next few quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPrice is still above the 200-day average and RSI of 56 is mid-range, so the weakness may be only a pause within an uptrend. | ||
BUD is a high-quality business, with a quality score of 8.3/10, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and 15% margins. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski score stays at 8 or higher and margins stay near 15%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterQuality inputs have only 0.71 confidence, and the peer quality rank is a middling 6.25, so the premium quality edge may be overstated. | ||
Dividend safety scores 9.0/10 and earnings growth scores 10.0/10, supporting steady income and profit expansion. Components | Dividend safety stays above 8/10 and earnings keep growing. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRevenue growth scores only 4.8/10, so earnings growth may rely on cost cuts or one-off items rather than volume. | ||
At $80.38 the stock is only 2.3% below the $82.24 analyst target against 8.7% downside, so reward-to-risk is 0.27. Upside pct | Upside stays limited unless the analyst target rises well above $82.24. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets are haircut and revised often; a defensive compounder with a 9/9 quality score could be re-rated higher on earnings growth. | ||
Forward P/E is 16.4x with PEG of 1.67, and the peer value rank is only 1.7/10, so valuation is not cheap versus peers. Valuation breakdown | Valuation multiples stay at or above current levels, capping upside. | →Stable |
| CounterDefensive staples with high quality commonly trade at premium multiples, and the pe and ps value scores are 7.6 and 8.6, which are favorable. | ||
Momentum is weak at 3.9/10 with volume distribution (falling OBV), and the put/call ratio is elevated at 1.94, despite the price holding above the 200-day average.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score stays below 5/10 over the next few quarters.
CounterPrice is still above the 200-day average and RSI of 56 is mid-range, so the weakness may be only a pause within an uptrend.
BUD is a high-quality business, with a quality score of 8.3/10, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and 15% margins.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski score stays at 8 or higher and margins stay near 15%.
CounterQuality inputs have only 0.71 confidence, and the peer quality rank is a middling 6.25, so the premium quality edge may be overstated.
Dividend safety scores 9.0/10 and earnings growth scores 10.0/10, supporting steady income and profit expansion.
↓DeterioratingComponents
- Expectation
- Dividend safety stays above 8/10 and earnings keep growing.
CounterRevenue growth scores only 4.8/10, so earnings growth may rely on cost cuts or one-off items rather than volume.
At $80.38 the stock is only 2.3% below the $82.24 analyst target against 8.7% downside, so reward-to-risk is 0.27.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Upside stays limited unless the analyst target rises well above $82.24.
CounterAnalyst targets are haircut and revised often; a defensive compounder with a 9/9 quality score could be re-rated higher on earnings growth.
Forward P/E is 16.4x with PEG of 1.67, and the peer value rank is only 1.7/10, so valuation is not cheap versus peers.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Valuation multiples stay at or above current levels, capping upside.
CounterDefensive staples with high quality commonly trade at premium multiples, and the pe and ps value scores are 7.6 and 8.6, which are favorable.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.3/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 7.3 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 7.7 |
| Moat | 6.6 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 15%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
7.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 7.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
| erm sentiment | 4.8 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.7 |
| quality rank | 6.3 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.7 |
| support resistance | 4.0 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.7 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| put call | 4.7 |
| implied vol | 6.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.5 |
| debt equity | 6.7 |
- ▸Above max pain $68
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.6 |
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:106d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.17
Upside
+1.3%
Downside
8.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5. Top dim: Quality at 8.3; weakest: Insider at 5.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.3, Growth at 7.4, and Catalyst at 6.9; the weakest are Insider at 5.0, Momentum at 5.0, and Peer rank at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.17 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Brewer
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6/9 from current 9/9.
- P2Limited Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds the $82.24 analyst target by more than 10%.
- P3Weak Near Term Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 6/10 from current 3.9.
- P4Safe Dividend And Earnings Growth
Trip ifDividend safety score falls below 5/10 from current 9.0.
- P5Valuation Rich Versus Peers
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 20x from current 16.4x.