Value
6.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 6.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 3.2 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.3x
- ▸PEG: 3.88
BSVN · Why this verdict
Why Bank7 (BSVN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bank7 pairs a perfect earnings beat streak and peer-leading returns with a stock that has already hit its price target and shows recent insider selling, leaving limited near-term upside despite strong fundamentals.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Bank7 screens as attractively valued relative to peers, with a favorable forward P/E and superior ROE noted directly in the peer-ranking analysis. Peer-rank breakdown | The peer value and quality rankings should stay in the top half of the peer group over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterPeer-relative cheapness can persist indefinitely if the market is correctly pricing in a structural reason (e.g., geographic concentration risk) for the discount. | ||
Bank7 has beaten earnings estimates in all of its last 4 quarters with an average surprise of about 13.3%, and the model flags an earnings catalyst edge with its next report just 12 days away. Catalyst breakdown | The perfect beat streak should extend through the next reported quarter (2026-07-16). | →Stable |
| CounterA perfect 4-for-4 beat streak raises the bar for the next print, and any deceleration could be read by the market as a miss even if results are still solid. | ||
Bank7 has already reached its analyst price target, and the model shows negative risk/reward asymmetry (-0.87), with modeled downside of 11.8% versus essentially no further upside. Bear case | A new, higher analyst target should emerge, or the risk/reward should otherwise turn positive, over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA bank compounding a 4-for-4 beat streak can keep pushing estimates and price targets higher, making a stale target an unreliable ceiling. | ||
Insiders have been net sellers of Bank7, with 2 sell transactions and no offsetting buys generating a BEARISH insider signal from the model. Insider | The insider signal should shift back to NEUTRAL or BULLISH over the next 12 months if selling activity stops. | →Stable |
| CounterThe absolute size of the sale (2,000 shares) is small and could reflect routine personal liquidity needs rather than a negative view on the bank. | ||
Bank7 screens as attractively valued relative to peers, with a favorable forward P/E and superior ROE noted directly in the peer-ranking analysis.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- The peer value and quality rankings should stay in the top half of the peer group over the next 12 months.
CounterPeer-relative cheapness can persist indefinitely if the market is correctly pricing in a structural reason (e.g., geographic concentration risk) for the discount.
Bank7 has beaten earnings estimates in all of its last 4 quarters with an average surprise of about 13.3%, and the model flags an earnings catalyst edge with its next report just 12 days away.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The perfect beat streak should extend through the next reported quarter (2026-07-16).
CounterA perfect 4-for-4 beat streak raises the bar for the next print, and any deceleration could be read by the market as a miss even if results are still solid.
Bank7 has already reached its analyst price target, and the model shows negative risk/reward asymmetry (-0.87), with modeled downside of 11.8% versus essentially no further upside.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- A new, higher analyst target should emerge, or the risk/reward should otherwise turn positive, over the next 12 months.
CounterA bank compounding a 4-for-4 beat streak can keep pushing estimates and price targets higher, making a stale target an unreliable ceiling.
Insiders have been net sellers of Bank7, with 2 sell transactions and no offsetting buys generating a BEARISH insider signal from the model.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- The insider signal should shift back to NEUTRAL or BULLISH over the next 12 months if selling activity stops.
CounterThe absolute size of the sale (2,000 shares) is small and could reflect routine personal liquidity needs rather than a negative view on the bank.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.6 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.1 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 43%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.9 |
| EPS growth | 2.6 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -6%
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 2.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $728,515 (0.151% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.5 |
| quality rank | 9.1 |
| growth rank | 0.2 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.3 |
| support resistance | 3.5 |
| 52w position | 9.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 5.2 |
| beta | 7.7 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 3 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:63d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.15%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
-0.65
Upside
-4.6%
Downside
7.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.65 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5, Catalyst at 6.6, and Value at 6.4; the weakest are Growth at 1.8, Peer rank at 4.7, and Technical at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.65 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifThe beat streak breaks, with a negative earnings surprise that falls below 0% in the next reported quarter (due 2026-07-16).
- P2Attractive Valuation Vs Peers
Trip ifPeer-relative quality rank falls below 5.0 from the current 9.46.
- P3Target Reached Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifA new analyst target sets modeled upside above 10% while downside stays below 10%.
- P4Insider Selling Signal
Trip ifInsider signal flips to BULLISH with net share purchases of more than 5,000 shares.