Value
7.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.19
- ▸Attractively valued
BRK-B · Why this verdict
Why Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New (BRK-B) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroCAUTIOUS
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BRK-B at $483.62 has attractive value (PEG 0.19, Forward P/E 22.7x), BULLISH insider signal (20 buys, 0 sells), momentum 6.5 in RECOVERY setup, and 3/4 beats — but V9 ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE failing with TP $479.63 BELOW spot, V8 target reached (-8.5% upside) produce AVOID; action_note 'Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.'
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Engine signal |
|---|---|---|
Bull_case 'Attractive valuation' corroborated by value 7.2 (Forward P/E 22.7x, PEG 0.19, value notes 'Attractively valued') with pe component 8.1, ps component 8.4 — cheap relative to forward earnings power. Bull case (item 2) | Value subscore stays above 7.0 with Forward P/E below 25x over next 2 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterBRK's reported PE is depressed by mark-to-market gains in equity portfolio; underlying operating earnings PE is closer to 25-30x — the 'attractively valued' label may be GAAP noise. | ||
Insider signal BULLISH with 20 buys / 0 sells over 90 days and net +557 shares (last 2026-05-22) — uniquely positive insider activity across the universe, suggesting board-level conviction at current levels. Insider transaction read | Buy_count stays above 10 and sell_count remains at 0 on the next refresh. | →stable |
| CounterBRK insider 'buys' may include Buffett/Munger estate management at trivial size; without dollar value (net_value_90d null) the signal magnitude is unscored. | ||
V9 ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE gate failure with v9.upside_pct -8.5 vs downside_pct 5.0 and bear_case 'Analyst target reached' — TP $479.63 is $4 BELOW $483.62 spot with risk_reward -0.3. Engine gate (failed) | Analyst take_profit advances above $530 (10%+ above spot) restoring asymmetry above 1.0 within 2 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterBRK suffers from light analyst coverage (sentiment notes 'Light analyst coverage (3.0)'); take_profit may not adjust quickly because few analysts re-rate. | ||
Earnings.beat_count 3 with Q4 2025 MISS of -8.48% and avg_surprise_pct 1.85% — insurance results are inherently volatile from underwriting and float marks; catalyst notes 'Strong earnings: 3B/1M' downplays the volatility. Miss count | Beat count holds at 3+/4 with no MISS exceeding -10% by the 2026-08-01 print. | →stable |
| CounterBRK earnings are dominated by mark-to-market on $300B+ equity portfolio; missing 8% on insurance accounting noise is meaningless without context on portfolio gains. | ||
Bear_case 'Below 200-day MA' with momentum notes 'Below 200-MA, MA slope flat' and V9 setup_type RECOVERY (MACD improving, RSI 69) — technical inflection at the start, not confirmed. Bear case (item 2) | Price reclaims 200-day MA with ma_position component rising above 7.0 within 2 refreshes. | →stable |
| CounterRSI 69 + MACD 10/10 + OBV 10/10 are early-recovery template signals; the 'below 200-MA' tag lags the inflection by ~30 days and may invert before the next refresh. | ||
Bull_case 'Attractive valuation' corroborated by value 7.2 (Forward P/E 22.7x, PEG 0.19, value notes 'Attractively valued') with pe component 8.1, ps component 8.4 — cheap relative to forward earnings power.
→stableBull case (item 2)
- Expectation
- Value subscore stays above 7.0 with Forward P/E below 25x over next 2 refreshes.
CounterBRK's reported PE is depressed by mark-to-market gains in equity portfolio; underlying operating earnings PE is closer to 25-30x — the 'attractively valued' label may be GAAP noise.
Insider signal BULLISH with 20 buys / 0 sells over 90 days and net +557 shares (last 2026-05-22) — uniquely positive insider activity across the universe, suggesting board-level conviction at current levels.
→stableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Buy_count stays above 10 and sell_count remains at 0 on the next refresh.
CounterBRK insider 'buys' may include Buffett/Munger estate management at trivial size; without dollar value (net_value_90d null) the signal magnitude is unscored.
V9 ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE gate failure with v9.upside_pct -8.5 vs downside_pct 5.0 and bear_case 'Analyst target reached' — TP $479.63 is $4 BELOW $483.62 spot with risk_reward -0.3.
→stableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Analyst take_profit advances above $530 (10%+ above spot) restoring asymmetry above 1.0 within 2 refreshes.
CounterBRK suffers from light analyst coverage (sentiment notes 'Light analyst coverage (3.0)'); take_profit may not adjust quickly because few analysts re-rate.
Earnings.beat_count 3 with Q4 2025 MISS of -8.48% and avg_surprise_pct 1.85% — insurance results are inherently volatile from underwriting and float marks; catalyst notes 'Strong earnings: 3B/1M' downplays the volatility.
→stableMiss count
- Expectation
- Beat count holds at 3+/4 with no MISS exceeding -10% by the 2026-08-01 print.
CounterBRK earnings are dominated by mark-to-market on $300B+ equity portfolio; missing 8% on insurance accounting noise is meaningless without context on portfolio gains.
Bear_case 'Below 200-day MA' with momentum notes 'Below 200-MA, MA slope flat' and V9 setup_type RECOVERY (MACD improving, RSI 69) — technical inflection at the start, not confirmed.
→stableBear case (item 2)
- Expectation
- Price reclaims 200-day MA with ma_position component rising above 7.0 within 2 refreshes.
CounterRSI 69 + MACD 10/10 + OBV 10/10 are early-recovery template signals; the 'below 200-MA' tag lags the inflection by ~30 days and may invert before the next refresh.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.5 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 1.6 |
| Op margin | 5.7 |
| Net margin | 9.7 |
| Current ratio | 9.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.2 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 7.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 6.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $15,558,918 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.7 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
Technical
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.7 |
| support resistance | 6.0 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.5 |
| days to cover | 8.5 |
| volatility | 9.1 |
| put call | 6.9 |
| beta | 9.3 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.4 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:64d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.4=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.36
Upside
-6.8%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 8.8; weakest: Momentum at 3.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.8, Value at 7.3, and Growth at 6.8; the weakest are Momentum at 3.0, Peer rank at 4.4, and Catalyst at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Bull_case 'Attractive valuation' corroborated by value 7.2 (Forward P/E 22.7x, PEG 0.19, value notes 'Attractively valued') with pe component 8.1, ps component 8.4 — cheap relative to forward earnings power.
Trip ifValue subscore falls below 6.0 with Forward P/E above 28x.
- P2Insider signal BULLISH with 20 buys / 0 sells over 90 days and net +557 shares (last 2026-05-22) — uniquely positive insider activity across the universe, suggesting board-level conviction at current levels.
Trip ifInsider signal flips to NEUTRAL or BEARISH with sell_count >= 5.
- P3V9 ASYMMETRY:-1.7=NEGATIVE gate failure with v9.upside_pct -8.5 vs downside_pct 5.0 and bear_case 'Analyst target reached' — TP $479.63 is $4 BELOW $483.62 spot with risk_reward -0.3.
Trip ifAsymmetry_ratio stays below -1.0 for 3 consecutive refreshes.
- P4Earnings.beat_count 3 with Q4 2025 MISS of -8.48% and avg_surprise_pct 1.85% — insurance results are inherently volatile from underwriting and float marks; catalyst notes 'Strong earnings: 3B/1M' downplays the volatility.
Trip ifBeat count drops to 1/4 with avg_surprise_pct below -5%.
- P5Bear_case 'Below 200-day MA' with momentum notes 'Below 200-MA, MA slope flat' and V9 setup_type RECOVERY (MACD improving, RSI 69) — technical inflection at the start, not confirmed.
Trip ifPrice stays below 200-day MA for 3 consecutive refreshes with MA slope still negative.