Value
7.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.1 |
| P/S | 8.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.19
- ▸Attractively valued
BRK-B · Why this verdict
Why Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New (BRK-B) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Berkshire Hathaway screens attractively valued at a PEG of 0.19 with strong margins and three beats in the last four quarters, but the current price of $487 has exceeded the analyst consensus target of $481.18, leaving the risk/reward unfavorable and the setup better suited to patience than to adding exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a PEG ratio of 0.19 and a forward multiple of 22.7x, the stock screens attractively valued relative to its earnings growth profile, with strong margins of 19% and a Piotroski financial strength score of 7/9. Valuation breakdown | The multiple holds or expands modestly as earnings growth narrows the PEG discount over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterNo identifiable competitive moat limits the durability of the margin advantage; analyst coverage is light (only three analysts), which dampens the reliability of the consensus target and the PEG-based valuation signal. | ||
The current price of $487.00 has exceeded the analyst consensus target of $481.18, meaning the stock is trading above the level that fully reflects near-term expectations and the risk/reward geometry is now unfavorable. Bear case | A pullback below the $481.18 analyst target would restore a positive risk/reward setup and create a more compelling entry for new capital. | →Stable |
| CounterIf earnings estimates are revised upward, the analyst target will adjust accordingly and the current price may prove fair — at a PEG of 0.19 the valuation remains undemanding even at these levels, and a target breach does not preclude further appreciation if fundamentals improve. | ||
The company beat earnings estimates in the most recent quarter (April 2026, +4.17%) and in the two oldest of the last four quarters, with one miss in between in February 2026 (-8.48%), showing a generally constructive execution pattern against consensus expectations. Earnings | Earnings surprises remain positive over the next two quarters, reinforcing the fundamental narrative. | →Stable |
| CounterThe February 2026 miss of -8.48% shows that the beat pattern is not unbroken; with light analyst coverage dampening the consensus signal, a second near-term miss could be disproportionately negative for sentiment. | ||
Price is below the 200-day moving average but volume accumulation is rising and the MACD is improving; the long-term moving average is still trending up at +0.1% per month, indicating this may be a pullback within a broader uptrend rather than confirmed weakness. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and the momentum score sustains above the 5.5 threshold as the recovery pattern consolidates. | →Stable |
| CounterThe death cross remains in effect and the stock is still below its long-term average; the MACD improvement and rising OBV are early signals that have not yet been confirmed by price reclaiming a key technical level. | ||
Insiders have been net buyers over the past 90 days, with two purchase transactions and zero sales, a constructive signal that management has confidence in the current price level. Insider | Insider buying activity continues or at minimum does not reverse, maintaining the net-positive signal through the next 90-day window. | →Stable |
| CounterThe net share count of +536 is modest in absolute terms and the dollar value of the transactions is unavailable, limiting the ability to assess materiality; a small token purchase carries less informational weight than a large-dollar transaction. | ||
At a PEG ratio of 0.19 and a forward multiple of 22.7x, the stock screens attractively valued relative to its earnings growth profile, with strong margins of 19% and a Piotroski financial strength score of 7/9.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The multiple holds or expands modestly as earnings growth narrows the PEG discount over the next 12 months.
CounterNo identifiable competitive moat limits the durability of the margin advantage; analyst coverage is light (only three analysts), which dampens the reliability of the consensus target and the PEG-based valuation signal.
The current price of $487.00 has exceeded the analyst consensus target of $481.18, meaning the stock is trading above the level that fully reflects near-term expectations and the risk/reward geometry is now unfavorable.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- A pullback below the $481.18 analyst target would restore a positive risk/reward setup and create a more compelling entry for new capital.
CounterIf earnings estimates are revised upward, the analyst target will adjust accordingly and the current price may prove fair — at a PEG of 0.19 the valuation remains undemanding even at these levels, and a target breach does not preclude further appreciation if fundamentals improve.
The company beat earnings estimates in the most recent quarter (April 2026, +4.17%) and in the two oldest of the last four quarters, with one miss in between in February 2026 (-8.48%), showing a generally constructive execution pattern against consensus expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprises remain positive over the next two quarters, reinforcing the fundamental narrative.
CounterThe February 2026 miss of -8.48% shows that the beat pattern is not unbroken; with light analyst coverage dampening the consensus signal, a second near-term miss could be disproportionately negative for sentiment.
Price is below the 200-day moving average but volume accumulation is rising and the MACD is improving; the long-term moving average is still trending up at +0.1% per month, indicating this may be a pullback within a broader uptrend rather than confirmed weakness.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day moving average and the momentum score sustains above the 5.5 threshold as the recovery pattern consolidates.
CounterThe death cross remains in effect and the stock is still below its long-term average; the MACD improvement and rising OBV are early signals that have not yet been confirmed by price reclaiming a key technical level.
Insiders have been net buyers over the past 90 days, with two purchase transactions and zero sales, a constructive signal that management has confidence in the current price level.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider buying activity continues or at minimum does not reverse, maintaining the net-positive signal through the next 90-day window.
CounterThe net share count of +536 is modest in absolute terms and the dollar value of the transactions is unavailable, limiting the ability to assess materiality; a small token purchase carries less informational weight than a large-dollar transaction.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.5 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 1.6 |
| Op margin | 5.7 |
| Net margin | 9.7 |
| Current ratio | 9.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.2 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 19%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 72)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider buying — $250,545 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.3 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.5 |
| days to cover | 8.5 |
| volatility | 8.9 |
| put call | 9.0 |
| beta | 9.3 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.4 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:38d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.0=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.96
Upside
-10.6%
Downside
5.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 9.1; weakest: Technical at 4.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 9.1, Value at 7.0, and Growth at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 4.2, Peer rank at 4.3, and Catalyst at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.96 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1The current price of $487.00 has exceeded the analyst consensus target of $481.18, meaning the stock is trading above the level that fully reflects near-term expectations and the risk/reward geometry is now unfavorable.
Trip ifPrice falls below $481.18 for 2 consecutive weeks.
- P2At a PEG ratio of 0.19 and a forward multiple of 22.7x, the stock screens attractively valued relative to its earnings growth profile, with strong margins of 19% and a Piotroski financial strength score of 7/9.
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.0 for 2 consecutive assessment periods.
- P3The company beat earnings estimates in the most recent quarter (April 2026, +4.17%) and in the two oldest of the last four quarters, with one miss in between in February 2026 (-8.48%), showing a generally constructive execution pattern against consensus expectations.
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Price is below the 200-day moving average but volume accumulation is rising and the MACD is improving; the long-term moving average is still trending up at +0.1% per month, indicating this may be a pullback within a broader uptrend rather than confirmed weakness.
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.5 for 2 consecutive assessment periods.
- P5Insiders have been net buyers over the past 90 days, with two purchase transactions and zero sales, a constructive signal that management has confidence in the current price level.
Trip ifNet insider share purchases fall below 0 for 2 consecutive 90-day periods.