Value
8.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.27
- ▸Attractively valued
BPOP · Why this verdict
Why Popular (BPOP) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Popular, Inc. is a cheaply valued regional bank (9.0x forward P/E, 33% margins) with 8.0% upside to the $169.22 analyst target, though Puerto Rico concentration, weak volume and a high put/call ratio temper conviction.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
BPOP trades at a 9.0x forward P/E and a PEG of 0.26 with 33% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 11x as earnings growth of 8.8/10 continues. | →Stable |
| CounterThe bank has no competitive moat and ROA scores only 0.9, so profitability depends on credit conditions staying benign. | ||
At $156.61 the stock is 8.0% below the $169.22 analyst target with a reward-to-risk of 1.61, a thin margin. Upside pct | Price rises toward $169.22 over 12 months as earnings are delivered. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light and upside of 8.0% leaves little cushion against 5.0% downside. | ||
Business is concentrated in Puerto Rico, and the 10-K flags 1 HIGH and 1 MED concentration risk. Bear case | Local credit quality and deposit trends remain stable. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA Puerto Rico economic shock, hurricane or fiscal event would hit the whole loan book at once. | ||
Momentum is a borderline 4.5/10 in a range-bound setup with falling on-balance volume, although the price is above its 200-day average. Momentum breakdown | Momentum rises above 5.5 as volume turns to accumulation. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling OBV suggests distribution, and any drop in momentum below 4.5 would worsen the picture. | ||
The put/call ratio is elevated at 4.25, with modest insider selling of $8,263,968 (0.084% of market cap). Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio normalizes below 2.0 and insider selling stays small. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHeavy put buying alongside insider sales could indicate informed caution about credit costs. | ||
BPOP trades at a 9.0x forward P/E and a PEG of 0.26 with 33% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 11x as earnings growth of 8.8/10 continues.
CounterThe bank has no competitive moat and ROA scores only 0.9, so profitability depends on credit conditions staying benign.
At $156.61 the stock is 8.0% below the $169.22 analyst target with a reward-to-risk of 1.61, a thin margin.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price rises toward $169.22 over 12 months as earnings are delivered.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light and upside of 8.0% leaves little cushion against 5.0% downside.
Business is concentrated in Puerto Rico, and the 10-K flags 1 HIGH and 1 MED concentration risk.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Local credit quality and deposit trends remain stable.
CounterA Puerto Rico economic shock, hurricane or fiscal event would hit the whole loan book at once.
Momentum is a borderline 4.5/10 in a range-bound setup with falling on-balance volume, although the price is above its 200-day average.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum rises above 5.5 as volume turns to accumulation.
CounterFalling OBV suggests distribution, and any drop in momentum below 4.5 would worsen the picture.
The put/call ratio is elevated at 4.25, with modest insider selling of $8,263,968 (0.084% of market cap).
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio normalizes below 2.0 and insider selling stays small.
CounterHeavy put buying alongside insider sales could indicate informed caution about credit costs.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.5 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 33%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
| EPS growth | 8.8 |
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.2 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
3.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 4.6 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $6,764,942 (0.068% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.2 |
| quality rank | 7.4 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.3 |
| support resistance | 6.3 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.2 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 6.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.3 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 9.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.00
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.5 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.57
Upside
+7.8%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 8.5; weakest: Insider at 3.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.5, Sentiment at 7.3, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Insider at 3.7, Momentum at 5.3, and Quality at 5.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.57 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Strong Margins
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 12x from current 9.0x.
- P2Modest Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $160, less than 3% above the current $156.61 price.
- P3Puerto Rico Geographic Concentration
Trip ifShare price drops to $150.11 or lower, more than 4% below $156.61, on a local credit event.
- P4Mid Range Momentum Weak Volume
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 3.5 from current 4.5.
- P5Elevated Put Call Hedging
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 6.0 from current 4.25.