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Popular, Inc. (BPOP) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $145.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 77% exposure to Puerto Rico (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Puerto Rico (77.0%).

Popular, Inc. is Puerto Rico's largest financial institution by total assets, operating Banco Popular de Puerto Rico and Popular Bank (US mainland) across consumer banking, commercial banking, and leasing segments. Puerto Rico accounts for 77% of assets and is the company's... Read more

$145.89+2.1% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#24 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.05%(5y avg 2.63%)Payout21.82%sustainable
Stop $139.85Target $148.96(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$171.22+17.4%9 analysts
$148.96our TP
$145.89price
$171.22mean
$180

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $145.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 77% exposure to Puerto Rico (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Puerto Rico (77.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Popular, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Single-region cliff: 77% exposure to Puerto Rico (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Puerto Rico (77.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.8
P/E (Fwd)8.9
Mkt Cap$9.5B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn30.0%
ROE14.9%
Rev Growth9.6%
Beta0.65
Dividend2.05%
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.06bullish
IV36%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicPuerto Rico77%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Puerto Rico, which accounted for 77% of our assets and 79%'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-08Item 5.02LOW
    Manuel A. Chinea appointed EVP and Chief Experience and Administration Services Officer of Popular, Inc. effective July 1, 2026, transitioning from COO of Popular Bank. Internal promotion with clean handoff; no departures.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-27Item 5.02LOW
    Director Myrna M. Soto will not stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Board size to be reduced from 12 to 11. No disagreement with operations cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
4.5
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotFINSVC REGIONAL CLIFF HARD BLOCKInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $142.37Resistance $152.95

Price Targets

$140
$149
A.Upside+2.1%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.1% upside)
! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BPOP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $145.89, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 77% exposure to Puerto Rico (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Puerto Rico (77.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $148.96 (+2.1%), stop $139.85 (−4.3%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BPOP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $148.96 (+2.1% upside). Target $148.96 (+2.1%), stop $139.85 (−4.3%), A.R:R 0.4:1. Stop-loss: $139.85.

What are the risks of investing in BPOP?

Single-region cliff: 77% exposure to Puerto Rico (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Puerto Rico (77.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is BPOP overvalued or undervalued?

Popular, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.8 (forward 8.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BPOP?

15 analysts cover BPOP with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $171.

What does Popular, Inc. do?Popular, Inc. is Puerto Rico's largest financial institution by total assets, operating Banco Popular de Puerto Rico...

Popular, Inc. is Puerto Rico's largest financial institution by total assets, operating Banco Popular de Puerto Rico and Popular Bank (US mainland) across consumer banking, commercial banking, and leasing segments. Puerto Rico accounts for 77% of assets and is the company's primary market, exposing it to the island's economic conditions, federal funding levels, and fiscal challenges. Revenue is primarily net interest income with meaningful Evertec technology dependency.

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