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Popular, Inc. (BPOP) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $149.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 77% exposure to Puerto Rico (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Puerto Rico (77.0%).

Popular is Puerto Rico's largest financial institution, operating through Banco Popular de Puerto Rico (BPPR, the largest retail banking franchise in Puerto Rico) and Popular Bank in the U.S. mainland. Revenue comes from interest income on commercial, mortgage, consumer, and... Read more

$149.88+8.0% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#13 of 142 Banks - Regional
Entry $138.85(50-day MA)Stop $131.73Target $149.89(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1Setup A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$169.89+13.3%9 analysts
$149.89our TP
$149.88price
$169.89mean
$180

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $149.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 77% exposure to Puerto Rico (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Puerto Rico (77.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $149.88 has reached target $149.89. No upside to wait for. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, news boost analyst cluster(3), earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: moderate.

Val8.1Qual5.5Grw7.5Mom5.6Sent7.6Ins5.0Peer5.9Tech4.5Risk6.16.5OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.78)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Single-region cliff: 77% exposure to Puerto Rico (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Puerto Rico (77.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.9
P/E (Fwd)9.0
Mkt Cap$9.5B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn30.0%
ROE14.9%
Rev Growth9.6%
Beta0.61
Dividend2.03%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C2.71bearish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$90-40.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicPuerto Rico77%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Puerto Rico, which accounted for 77% of our assets and 79%'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-08Item 5.02LOW
    Manuel A. Chinea appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Experience and Administration Services Officer of Popular, effective July 1, 2026, transitioning from COO of Popular Bank.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-27Item 5.02LOW
    Myrna M. Soto informed the Board she will not stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting (currently scheduled May 8, 2026). No disagreement cited. Board will reduce size from 12 to 11 directors.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEFINSVC REGIONAL CLIFF HARD BLOCKMomentum 5.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(3)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 82d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
62 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $133.00Resistance $152.95

Price Targets

$132
$139
$150
A.Upside+0.0%
A.R:R-0.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.4% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (82d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BPOP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $149.88, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 77% exposure to Puerto Rico (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Puerto Rico (77.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $149.88 has reached target $149.89. No upside to wait for. Target $149.89 (+0.0%), stop $131.73 (−13.8%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BPOP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $149.89 (+8.0% upside). Target $149.89 (+0.0%), stop $131.73 (−13.8%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $131.73.

What are the risks of investing in BPOP?

Single-region cliff: 77% exposure to Puerto Rico (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: Puerto Rico (77.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is BPOP overvalued or undervalued?

Popular, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.9 (forward 9.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BPOP?

16 analysts cover BPOP with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $170.

What does Popular, Inc. do?Popular is Puerto Rico's largest financial institution, operating through Banco Popular de Puerto Rico (BPPR, the...

Popular is Puerto Rico's largest financial institution, operating through Banco Popular de Puerto Rico (BPPR, the largest retail banking franchise in Puerto Rico) and Popular Bank in the U.S. mainland. Revenue comes from interest income on commercial, mortgage, consumer, and leasing loans, plus wealth management fees. Puerto Rico accounted for 77% of assets and the dominant share of operations.

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