Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.5 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.45
- ▸Attractively valued
BOH · Why this verdict
Why Bank of Hawaii (BOH) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bank of Hawaii is attractively valued at a 10.7x forward P/E with strong margins and a 4.0% dividend, but the price is already above the $69.31 analyst target and recent earnings have slipped.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The bank trades at a 10.7x forward P/E and PEG of 0.44 with 32% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 12x and the Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 7. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional banks with no competitive moat can trade at low multiples for years if credit or funding costs worsen. | ||
At $69.77 the stock is above the $69.31 analyst target (upside of -0.7%), so there is no analyst-implied upside. Upside pct | Analyst targets are lifted above the price as earnings grow, or the price eases back toward $69. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimates are trending down, so the target is more likely to be cut than raised. | ||
Earnings are mixed, with a miss in the latest quarter (-1.36%), 2 misses in the last 4 and estimates trending down. Last 4 quarters | EPS meets or beats estimates for the next two reports. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMisses are small, but combined with falling estimates they indicate decelerating profit. | ||
Momentum is 4.2/10 with falling on-balance volume and a news-driven downgrade, though the price is a pullback in a still-rising 200-day average (+0.3%/30d). Momentum breakdown | Momentum recovers above 4.5 and volume turns to accumulation. | ↑Improving |
| CounterVolume distribution implies sellers are in control and the 200-day slope is nearly flat. | ||
The dividend yields 4.0% but dividend safety scores only 4.5/10, so income depends on earnings holding up. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend is maintained and dividend safety improves above 5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterEarnings concerns (2 beats vs 2 misses) put the payout at risk if credit costs rise. | ||
The bank trades at a 10.7x forward P/E and PEG of 0.44 with 32% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 12x and the Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 7.
CounterRegional banks with no competitive moat can trade at low multiples for years if credit or funding costs worsen.
At $69.77 the stock is above the $69.31 analyst target (upside of -0.7%), so there is no analyst-implied upside.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are lifted above the price as earnings grow, or the price eases back toward $69.
CounterEstimates are trending down, so the target is more likely to be cut than raised.
Earnings are mixed, with a miss in the latest quarter (-1.36%), 2 misses in the last 4 and estimates trending down.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats estimates for the next two reports.
CounterMisses are small, but combined with falling estimates they indicate decelerating profit.
Momentum is 4.2/10 with falling on-balance volume and a news-driven downgrade, though the price is a pullback in a still-rising 200-day average (+0.3%/30d).
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum recovers above 4.5 and volume turns to accumulation.
CounterVolume distribution implies sellers are in control and the 200-day slope is nearly flat.
The dividend yields 4.0% but dividend safety scores only 4.5/10, so income depends on earnings holding up.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is maintained and dividend safety improves above 5.
CounterEarnings concerns (2 beats vs 2 misses) put the payout at risk if credit costs rise.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 32%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.7 |
| EPS growth | 6.8 |
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.2 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 4.5 |
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.2 |
| support resistance | 3.8 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 6.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.6 |
| beta | 8.8 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸High IV: 64%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 1.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.3 |
| dividend safety | 4.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Estimates down -5.3% (30d)
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 3.9%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-2Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:80d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.34
Upside
-2.5%
Downside
7.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.9; weakest: Catalyst at 3.9. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.6, and Growth at 5.8; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.9, Technical at 4.6, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.34 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Strong Margins
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 14x from current 10.7x.
- P2Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $65, more than 6% below the current $69.77 price.
- P3Earnings Slipping
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Momentum Below Trend
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 3.5 from current 4.2.
- P5Dividend Income Support
Trip ifDividend safety score falls below 4.0 from current 4.5.