Value
7.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.4 |
| P/S | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.36
- ▸Attractively valued
BOH · Why this verdict
Why Bank of Hawaii (BOH) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bank of Hawaii offers an attractively valued earnings stream — PEG of 0.33, forward multiple of 11.3x — backed by 30% net margins and a financial health score of 8 out of 9, with strong technical momentum; the stock has run to within 1.1% of its technical target with an unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio, however, and the most recent quarter produced a miss after a steady prior streak.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Net margins of 30% and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 point to a well-run, financially sound institution — a balance sheet that provides meaningful cushion through a credit cycle. Quality breakdown | Piotroski financial health score remains at 7 or above and net margins stay above 25% over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong Piotroski score is backward-looking; if credit losses accelerate or deposit outflows materialise, the financial health picture can deteriorate faster than the score captures, particularly for a regional bank with three medium-severity concentration risks flagged in its own filings. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 11.3x and a PEG of 0.33 place the stock well below typical regional-bank valuation ranges relative to its earnings growth rate — a combination the assessment explicitly characterises as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple stays below 16x over the next 12 months, preserving the valuation cushion relative to earnings growth. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA low PEG in regional banking can reflect cyclical earnings that are near a peak rather than durable growth; if net interest margins compress in a declining-rate environment, the earnings base shrinks and the apparent cheapness evaporates. | ||
The most recent quarter produced a −3% earnings miss, ending a run that included an inline quarter at the oldest period followed by two consecutive beats — a pattern reversal that introduces uncertainty about whether delivery will be consistent going forward. Earnings | The next two quarters both beat consensus by more than 2%, re-establishing a reliable positive-surprise cadence. | →Stable |
| CounterA single miss after two beats and an inline quarter is a thin signal — average earnings surprise over all four quarters remains positive at 2.35%, suggesting the miss may be an isolated outcome rather than the start of a new negative trend. | ||
The put/call ratio stands at 0.4, well below the neutral 1.0 level, indicating that sophisticated options participants are not positioning for near-term downside — a sentiment signal that complements the bullish technical picture of a golden cross and rising on-balance volume. Risk | Put/call ratio remains below 0.8 over the next 12 months, consistent with continued options-market confidence in the underlying. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA very low put/call ratio can reflect complacency rather than informed conviction; if sentiment deteriorates rapidly — triggered by a credit event or macro shock — the reversal in options positioning can amplify the move lower. | ||
Net margins of 30% and a Piotroski financial health score of 8 out of 9 point to a well-run, financially sound institution — a balance sheet that provides meaningful cushion through a credit cycle.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski financial health score remains at 7 or above and net margins stay above 25% over the next four quarters.
CounterA strong Piotroski score is backward-looking; if credit losses accelerate or deposit outflows materialise, the financial health picture can deteriorate faster than the score captures, particularly for a regional bank with three medium-severity concentration risks flagged in its own filings.
A forward price-to-earnings multiple of 11.3x and a PEG of 0.33 place the stock well below typical regional-bank valuation ranges relative to its earnings growth rate — a combination the assessment explicitly characterises as attractively valued.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple stays below 16x over the next 12 months, preserving the valuation cushion relative to earnings growth.
CounterA low PEG in regional banking can reflect cyclical earnings that are near a peak rather than durable growth; if net interest margins compress in a declining-rate environment, the earnings base shrinks and the apparent cheapness evaporates.
The most recent quarter produced a −3% earnings miss, ending a run that included an inline quarter at the oldest period followed by two consecutive beats — a pattern reversal that introduces uncertainty about whether delivery will be consistent going forward.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The next two quarters both beat consensus by more than 2%, re-establishing a reliable positive-surprise cadence.
CounterA single miss after two beats and an inline quarter is a thin signal — average earnings surprise over all four quarters remains positive at 2.35%, suggesting the miss may be an isolated outcome rather than the start of a new negative trend.
The put/call ratio stands at 0.4, well below the neutral 1.0 level, indicating that sophisticated options participants are not positioning for near-term downside — a sentiment signal that complements the bullish technical picture of a golden cross and rising on-balance volume.
↓DeterioratingRisk
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio remains below 0.8 over the next 12 months, consistent with continued options-market confidence in the underlying.
CounterA very low put/call ratio can reflect complacency rather than informed conviction; if sentiment deteriorates rapidly — triggered by a credit event or macro shock — the reversal in options positioning can amplify the move lower.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.1 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.1 |
| EPS growth | 8.8 |
Momentum
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 9.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $400,850 (0.012% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.2 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 5.4 |
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.5 |
| support resistance | 3.9 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 6.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.6 |
| beta | 8.9 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.7 |
| dividend safety | 4.5 |
- ▸Earnings in 0 days
- ▸Dividend: 3.3%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $83.97 has reached target $84.58. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.8=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.80
Upside
-9.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.3B<$5B
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $83.97 has reached target $84.58. No upside to wait for. The 10-dimension scores remain Risk (lower is worse) at 8.5 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-1.8=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.5, Value at 7.5, and Growth at 7.5; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.6, Catalyst at 4.8, and Sentiment at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.80 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E multiple expands above 18x without a commensurate increase in earnings estimates.
- P2Strong Balance Sheet Piotroski Score
Trip ifPiotroski financial health score falls below 6 for 2 consecutive quarterly assessments.
- P3Most Recent Quarter Missed After Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the miss as a trend rather than a one-quarter anomaly.
- P4Options Market Bullishly Positioned
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 1.5 for more than 10 consecutive trading days, signalling a material shift to bearish options positioning.