Value
6.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 6.5 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.9x
- ▸PEG: 1.14
BNY · Why this verdict
Why The Bank of New York Mellon Cor (BNY) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bank of New York Mellon combines a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak, a strong growth profile, and strong ~29% net margins with a stock that is trading near its 52-week high and has already reached its tracked price target, so the near-term setup depends on continued execution and higher price targets rather than a valuation re-rating.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Bank of New York Mellon has beaten earnings estimates in each of its last four reported quarters, with surprises ranging from about 5% to 17% and an average beat near 9.9%, and reports again in 11 days. Bull case | The beat streak should extend to a fifth consecutive quarter, with EPS surprise staying above 0% at the upcoming print. | →Stable |
| CounterThe engine's own risk/reward read is negative at the current price, meaning even a continued beat streak may already be priced in with the stock trading near its target. | ||
Shares are trading near their tracked price target and sit just 1.3% below their 52-week high, leaving the stock with limited remaining room to the upside on the current target. Bear case | For the constrained-upside read to ease, the price target itself should be raised, giving the stock fresh room to run over the next 12 months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA continued strong growth profile could justify analysts raising price targets further, reopening upside even after the current target has been reached. | ||
Bank of New York Mellon's growth profile is one of the strongest dimensions in its assessment, reflecting solid revenue and earnings growth trends. Growth | The growth score should remain among the higher-ranked dimensions in the assessment over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG ratio of 1.63 suggests the market may already be paying a full price for that growth rather than getting it at a discount. | ||
The bank maintains strong profitability, with net margins around 29% per the quality assessment. Quality breakdown | Net margins should hold at or above roughly 25% over the next 12 months, sustaining the current strong-margin profile. | →Stable |
| CounterEven with strong margins, the engine's own risk/reward read is negative at the current price, meaning the quality of the business does not by itself justify adding to the position here. | ||
Bank of New York Mellon has beaten earnings estimates in each of its last four reported quarters, with surprises ranging from about 5% to 17% and an average beat near 9.9%, and reports again in 11 days.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to a fifth consecutive quarter, with EPS surprise staying above 0% at the upcoming print.
CounterThe engine's own risk/reward read is negative at the current price, meaning even a continued beat streak may already be priced in with the stock trading near its target.
Shares are trading near their tracked price target and sit just 1.3% below their 52-week high, leaving the stock with limited remaining room to the upside on the current target.
Tripped↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- For the constrained-upside read to ease, the price target itself should be raised, giving the stock fresh room to run over the next 12 months.
CounterA continued strong growth profile could justify analysts raising price targets further, reopening upside even after the current target has been reached.
Bank of New York Mellon's growth profile is one of the strongest dimensions in its assessment, reflecting solid revenue and earnings growth trends.
→StableGrowth
- Expectation
- The growth score should remain among the higher-ranked dimensions in the assessment over the next 12 months.
CounterA PEG ratio of 1.63 suggests the market may already be paying a full price for that growth rather than getting it at a discount.
The bank maintains strong profitability, with net margins around 29% per the quality assessment.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins should hold at or above roughly 25% over the next 12 months, sustaining the current strong-margin profile.
CounterEven with strong margins, the engine's own risk/reward read is negative at the current price, meaning the quality of the business does not by itself justify adding to the position here.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 29%
Growth
6.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.8 |
| EPS growth | 7.4 |
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.6 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 9.8 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 22)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 7.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
4.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $5,509,915 (0.006% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.3 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
Technical
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.6 |
| support resistance | 9.4 |
| 52w position | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 8.0 |
| put call | 5.2 |
| implied vol | 2.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
- ▸High IV: 64%
- ▸Above max pain $110
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.5 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.85
Upside
+4.3%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 2 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Technical at 8.3 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.3, Value at 6.9, and Growth at 6.6; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.0, Insider at 4.5, and Momentum at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.85 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) at the upcoming print in 11 days, ending the current 4-quarter beat streak.
- P2Target Reached Limited UpsideTripped
Trip ifPrice target is raised such that upside to target exceeds 10%, reopening meaningful room above the current level.
- P3Strong Growth Profile
Trip ifGrowth score falls below 4.0, dropping from its current elevated reading and signaling the strong growth profile has faded.
- P4Strong Net Margins
Trip ifNet margin compresses below 20% from the current ~29% level.