Value
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.34
BMRN · Why this verdict
Why BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BioMarin trades at a 9.1x forward P/E with 40.8% upside to the $82.40 analyst target and solid financial strength, but sole-source supply and a single large customer keep it a speculative biotech holding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a 9.1x forward P/E and PEG of 0.34, the stock at $58.51 sits 40.8% below the $82.40 analyst target. Valuation breakdown | Price moves toward the analyst target as earnings growth is recognized, narrowing the 40.8% gap. | →Stable |
| CounterLow multiples in biotech can reflect expected earnings decline, and analyst targets are frequently cut. | ||
Financial health is solid, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, current ratio score of 8.2 and free cash flow quality of 7.8. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 7 and free cash flow quality holds above 7 over the next year. | →Stable |
| CounterNet margin and ROE scores are near zero (1.1 and 0.4), so profitability lags the balance-sheet strength. | ||
Sanofi is a concentrated customer and key raw materials come from sole-source suppliers, adding single-point-of-failure risk. Bear case | No supply interruption or customer loss, with revenue growth sustained above recent levels. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA sole-source supplier failure or loss of the Sanofi relationship could disrupt revenue abruptly; the 10-K flags 3 HIGH concentration risks. | ||
Growth is weak, with a growth score of 3.8/10 and earnings growth at 0.0 despite revenue growth scoring 7.5, so profit has not followed sales. Components | Earnings growth component rises above 3.0 as profit catches up to revenue over ~12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterIf margins stay flat, the valuation discount is justified and upside to the target would not materialize. | ||
Momentum is constructive at 6.9/10, with rising on-balance volume and the price above its 200-day average. Momentum breakdown | Momentum stays above 5.5 and price remains above the 200-day average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterTechnical score is only 3.3 with Bollinger and support scores near zero, so the price may be extended near-term. | ||
At a 9.1x forward P/E and PEG of 0.34, the stock at $58.51 sits 40.8% below the $82.40 analyst target.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the analyst target as earnings growth is recognized, narrowing the 40.8% gap.
CounterLow multiples in biotech can reflect expected earnings decline, and analyst targets are frequently cut.
Financial health is solid, with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, current ratio score of 8.2 and free cash flow quality of 7.8.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score stays at or above 7 and free cash flow quality holds above 7 over the next year.
CounterNet margin and ROE scores are near zero (1.1 and 0.4), so profitability lags the balance-sheet strength.
Sanofi is a concentrated customer and key raw materials come from sole-source suppliers, adding single-point-of-failure risk.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- No supply interruption or customer loss, with revenue growth sustained above recent levels.
CounterA sole-source supplier failure or loss of the Sanofi relationship could disrupt revenue abruptly; the 10-K flags 3 HIGH concentration risks.
Growth is weak, with a growth score of 3.8/10 and earnings growth at 0.0 despite revenue growth scoring 7.5, so profit has not followed sales.
→StableComponents
- Expectation
- Earnings growth component rises above 3.0 as profit catches up to revenue over ~12 months.
CounterIf margins stay flat, the valuation discount is justified and upside to the target would not materialize.
Momentum is constructive at 6.9/10, with rising on-balance volume and the price above its 200-day average.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum stays above 5.5 and price remains above the 200-day average.
CounterTechnical score is only 3.3 with Bollinger and support scores near zero, so the price may be extended near-term.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.4 |
| ROA | 2.2 |
| Gross margin | 6.2 |
| Op margin | 8.5 |
| Net margin | 1.1 |
| Current ratio | 8.2 |
| FCF quality | 7.8 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.5 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 8.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 64%
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.5 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,163,748 (0.010% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 6.4 |
| growth rank | 5.4 |
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.3 |
| support resistance | 5.1 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
| gap | 7.5 |
- ▸Extreme gap down (-7.6%) - potential reversal
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 5.3 |
| volatility | 3.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 7.0 |
| news risk | 5.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $45
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:6.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
6.67
Upside
+48.0%
Downside
7.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5. Top dim: Sentiment at 7.4; weakest: Growth at 3.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.4, Value at 6.8, and Catalyst at 6.6; the weakest are Growth at 3.8, Peer rank at 4.4, and Insider at 5.2. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.67 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Discounted Valuation Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst target falls below $65, less than 12% above the current $58.51 price.
- P2Solid Financial Strength
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 from current 8.
- P3Customer Supplier Concentration
Trip ifRevenue falls more than 10% YoY in any quarter following a customer or supply disruption.
- P4Weak Growth Profile
Trip ifGrowth score stays below 3.0 from current 3.8 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Constructive Momentum Trend
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 from current 6.9.