Value
9.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 3.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.02
- ▸Attractively valued
BMBL · Why this verdict
Why Bumble (BMBL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 5.7 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.6 |
| FCF quality | 9.0 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 25%, FCF yield 47.2%)
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 11 (fail)
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -14%
Momentum
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.9 |
| MACD | 7.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 72)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -12.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
| erm sentiment | 4.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 32%
Insider
3.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $113,036,164 (22.720% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 0.3 |
Technical
0.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.3 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.5 |
| days to cover | 6.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 3.8 |
| debt equity | 6.1 |
- ▸High IV: 137%
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.1>=4.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot
- INSIDER:22.72%=EXTREME
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.1>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.01
Upside
+15.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 72
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -62% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 9.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.0<1.5@spot, INSIDER:22.72%=EXTREME) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.01 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.5, Catalyst at 6.3, and Sentiment at 5.9; the weakest are Technical at 0.7, Peer rank at 2.2, and Insider at 3.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.01 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.