Value
3.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.1 |
| PEG | 9.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 76.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.57
BLLN · Why this verdict
Why BillionToOne (BLLN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BillionToOne is a hypergrowth diagnostics company with 64% revenue growth, a wide moat and an elite Rule of 40 score, but it trades at 76.3x forward earnings, 1.0% above the analyst target, with heavy insider selling just ahead of earnings on 2026-11-04.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
BillionToOne has a wide economic moat (7.9), a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and a 10.0 gross margin score. Quality breakdown | Gross margin holds and the moat score stays above 7.0 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings quality is flagged as a red flag at 36% free cash flow to net income, and operating margin scores only 2.0. | ||
BillionToOne is growing revenue 64% year over year with a Rule of 40 score of 67 (elite) and growth rank of 9.1 against peers. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 40% year over year over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth rates decay as a company scales, and 64% growth is hard to sustain in a market dependent on payor coverage. | ||
Forward P/E is 76.3x and price of $113.32 is 1.0% above the analyst target of $112.23, so reward-to-risk is slightly negative at -0.06. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth compresses the forward multiple while analysts raise targets above $115. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.56 implies the multiple is justified by growth, and coverage is light so targets may lag. | ||
Insiders sold about $29.1 million, equal to 0.545% of market cap, which is rated heavy, even as institutions are accumulating. Insider breakdown | Insider selling slows below 0.2% of market cap over the next two quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRecent-IPO insiders often sell for diversification and lock-up expiry, and institutional accumulation offsets the signal. | ||
Earnings are due on 2026-11-04 after a mixed record, with a +124.3% beat on 2026-08-05, a -10.6% miss on 2026-03-04 and a +468.8% beat on 2025-12-09. Last 4 quarters | EPS meets or beats estimates on 2026-11-04. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe huge percentage beats come off tiny per-share bases, and RSI of 81 means the stock is overbought heading into a binary event. | ||
BillionToOne has a wide economic moat (7.9), a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and a 10.0 gross margin score.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Gross margin holds and the moat score stays above 7.0 over 12 months.
CounterEarnings quality is flagged as a red flag at 36% free cash flow to net income, and operating margin scores only 2.0.
BillionToOne is growing revenue 64% year over year with a Rule of 40 score of 67 (elite) and growth rank of 9.1 against peers.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 40% year over year over the next four quarters.
CounterGrowth rates decay as a company scales, and 64% growth is hard to sustain in a market dependent on payor coverage.
Forward P/E is 76.3x and price of $113.32 is 1.0% above the analyst target of $112.23, so reward-to-risk is slightly negative at -0.06.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth compresses the forward multiple while analysts raise targets above $115.
CounterA PEG of 0.56 implies the multiple is justified by growth, and coverage is light so targets may lag.
Insiders sold about $29.1 million, equal to 0.545% of market cap, which is rated heavy, even as institutions are accumulating.
↑ImprovingInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling slows below 0.2% of market cap over the next two quarters.
CounterRecent-IPO insiders often sell for diversification and lock-up expiry, and institutional accumulation offsets the signal.
Earnings are due on 2026-11-04 after a mixed record, with a +124.3% beat on 2026-08-05, a -10.6% miss on 2026-03-04 and a +468.8% beat on 2025-12-09.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats estimates on 2026-11-04.
CounterThe huge percentage beats come off tiny per-share bases, and RSI of 81 means the stock is overbought heading into a binary event.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 3.5 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 2.0 |
| Net margin | 4.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 2.9 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 36% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 67 (elite)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 64% YoY
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 5.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.1 |
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $20,630,164 (0.384% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.5 |
| quality rank | 5.7 |
| growth rank | 9.1 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 5.1 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.4 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 1.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸High IV: 124%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.38%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
-0.10
Upside
-1.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Value at 3.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.5, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Value at 3.1, Technical at 3.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Hypergrowth Elite Rule Of 40
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 35% year over year from current 64%.
- P2Wide Moat Strong Piotroski
Trip ifGross margin score falls below 8.0 from current 10.0 or the Piotroski F-Score falls below 7 of 9.
- P3Rich Valuation At Target
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 90x from current 76.3x without an earnings upgrade.
- P4Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 1.0% of market cap over a 90-day window from current 0.545%.
- P5Volatile Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in the 2026-11-04 report.