Value
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 9.5 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.58
- ▸Attractively valued
BLKB · Why this verdict
Why Blackbaud (BLKB) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Blackbaud is a cash-generative software company with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak and a 8.9x forward P/E, but price is 12.7% above the analyst target, growth is weak, leverage is heavy and the stock is overbought on falling volume.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth scores only 3.1 with revenue growth at 3.5 and earnings growth at 2.8, ranking near the bottom of peers on growth. Components | Revenue growth rises above 5% year over year over the next four quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterLow growth with high cash conversion is typical for mature software, and it already supports a cheap 8.9x forward multiple. | ||
Blackbaud beat estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of +3.3%, including 1.36 versus 1.33 expected on 2026-10-28, and earnings estimates are trending up. Last 4 quarters | The beat streak extends through the 2027-02-10 report and beyond. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterSurprises are small (+1.6% to +4.9%), so a modest slip in execution would end the streak. | ||
Blackbaud shows a 131% return on equity and 147% free cash flow to net income, with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and a quality score of 7.2. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income and quality stays at or above 7.0. | →Stable |
| CounterA very high return on equity partly reflects a small equity base from leverage, with a debt-to-equity of 8.8 triggering a -1.5 leverage penalty. | ||
Price of $53.55 is 12.7% above the analyst target of $46.75, so the target is reached and reward-to-risk is negative at -0.85. Upside pct | Analysts raise targets above $54 after the beat streak, or price retraces toward $49.80. | →Stable |
| CounterCoverage is light (4.0), which dampens the signal, and targets may lag a re-rating at a PEG of 0.57. | ||
RSI is overbought at 73 with falling on-balance volume and a flat 200-day average, while implied volatility is high at 113% and short interest is 12%. Momentum breakdown | RSI cools below 65 and on-balance volume turns up while price holds the 200-day average. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice is above the 200-day average and institutions are accumulating, so the move may reflect genuine re-rating rather than a top. | ||
Growth scores only 3.1 with revenue growth at 3.5 and earnings growth at 2.8, ranking near the bottom of peers on growth.
↓DeterioratingComponents
- Expectation
- Revenue growth rises above 5% year over year over the next four quarters.
CounterLow growth with high cash conversion is typical for mature software, and it already supports a cheap 8.9x forward multiple.
Blackbaud beat estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of +3.3%, including 1.36 versus 1.33 expected on 2026-10-28, and earnings estimates are trending up.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends through the 2027-02-10 report and beyond.
CounterSurprises are small (+1.6% to +4.9%), so a modest slip in execution would end the streak.
Blackbaud shows a 131% return on equity and 147% free cash flow to net income, with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and a quality score of 7.2.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income and quality stays at or above 7.0.
CounterA very high return on equity partly reflects a small equity base from leverage, with a debt-to-equity of 8.8 triggering a -1.5 leverage penalty.
Price of $53.55 is 12.7% above the analyst target of $46.75, so the target is reached and reward-to-risk is negative at -0.85.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above $54 after the beat streak, or price retraces toward $49.80.
CounterCoverage is light (4.0), which dampens the signal, and targets may lag a re-rating at a PEG of 0.57.
RSI is overbought at 73 with falling on-balance volume and a flat 200-day average, while implied volatility is high at 113% and short interest is 12%.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI cools below 65 and on-balance volume turns up while price holds the 200-day average.
CounterPrice is above the 200-day average and institutions are accumulating, so the move may reflect genuine re-rating rather than a top.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.2 |
| Gross margin | 8.0 |
| Op margin | 8.5 |
| Net margin | 6.4 |
| Current ratio | 2.7 |
| FCF quality | 9.6 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 131%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 137% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.5 |
| EPS growth | 2.8 |
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 2.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 5.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 7.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $2,001,895 (0.082% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.3 |
| quality rank | 7.8 |
| growth rank | 1.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.2 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 5.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.1 |
| days to cover | 3.0 |
| volatility | 1.1 |
| put call | 7.5 |
| implied vol | 3.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.9 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $40
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.1 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:97d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.79
Upside
-11.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.79 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.1, Quality at 7.1, and Catalyst at 6.0; the weakest are Growth at 3.1, Technical at 3.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.79 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% in the 2027-02-10 report and the next quarter.
- P2Strong Returns Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 80% from current 147%.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds $60, more than 28% above the $46.75 analyst target, without a target raise.
- P4Weak Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 2% year over year from current growth score of 3.5.
- P5Overbought Distribution Volume
Trip ifPrice drops to $49.80 or below, the stop level, with short interest above 12%.