Value
9.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.33
- ▸Attractively valued
BLKB · Why this verdict
Why Blackbaud (BLKB) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 4.7x and a PEG ratio of 0.31, the stock screens as cheaply priced relative to its earnings growth profile, with analyst consensus implying roughly 60% upside to the current price. Valuation breakdown | Implied upside to the consensus price target compresses to less than 25% — from the current 60.7% — as the stock re-rates toward analyst fair value over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA compressed multiple may reflect structural concerns about subdued top-line growth; if revenue growth does not re-accelerate, the valuation discount could persist indefinitely rather than close. | ||
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, averaging nearly 6% above estimates, demonstrating consistent operational delivery and disciplined guidance management. Earnings | The beat streak extends through at least two additional quarterly reports, with the average earnings surprise remaining above 3%. | →Stable |
| CounterFour consecutive beats tend to pull consensus estimates upward; any moderation in business momentum or guidance tone could produce the first miss and break a streak that is now the primary sentiment support for the stock. | ||
Free cash flow conversion stands at 144% of net income, indicating the business generates cash substantially in excess of reported profits and that underlying earnings quality is high. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income for the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterConversion above 100% can reflect favorable working capital timing rather than durable structural quality; a normalization of deferred revenue or payables could pull conversion below net income in coming quarters. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the average itself declining at roughly 9% per 30 days, and a death cross formation has triggered a hard technical block — a confirmed downtrend with no reversal signal yet visible. Warnings | The stock closes above its 200-day moving average for 5 consecutive sessions and the 30-day slope turns flat or positive, confirming a trend change. | →Stable |
| CounterMoving average signals are lagging indicators; if a positive fundamental catalyst emerges at the next earnings date, the stock could recover sharply before the chart pattern formally reverses. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 4.7x and a PEG ratio of 0.31, the stock screens as cheaply priced relative to its earnings growth profile, with analyst consensus implying roughly 60% upside to the current price.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Implied upside to the consensus price target compresses to less than 25% — from the current 60.7% — as the stock re-rates toward analyst fair value over 12 months.
CounterA compressed multiple may reflect structural concerns about subdued top-line growth; if revenue growth does not re-accelerate, the valuation discount could persist indefinitely rather than close.
The company has beaten consensus earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, averaging nearly 6% above estimates, demonstrating consistent operational delivery and disciplined guidance management.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends through at least two additional quarterly reports, with the average earnings surprise remaining above 3%.
CounterFour consecutive beats tend to pull consensus estimates upward; any moderation in business momentum or guidance tone could produce the first miss and break a streak that is now the primary sentiment support for the stock.
Free cash flow conversion stands at 144% of net income, indicating the business generates cash substantially in excess of reported profits and that underlying earnings quality is high.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 100% of net income for the next four reported quarters.
CounterConversion above 100% can reflect favorable working capital timing rather than durable structural quality; a normalization of deferred revenue or payables could pull conversion below net income in coming quarters.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the average itself declining at roughly 9% per 30 days, and a death cross formation has triggered a hard technical block — a confirmed downtrend with no reversal signal yet visible.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The stock closes above its 200-day moving average for 5 consecutive sessions and the 30-day slope turns flat or positive, confirming a trend change.
CounterMoving average signals are lagging indicators; if a positive fundamental catalyst emerges at the next earnings date, the stock could recover sharply before the chart pattern formally reverses.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Blackbaud offers an attractively valued software franchise with four consecutive earnings beats and free cash flow well above reported profits, but a confirmed technical downtrend and elevated bearish options positioning argue for patience before adding exposure.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.4 |
| Gross margin | 7.8 |
| Op margin | 7.3 |
| Net margin | 6.2 |
| Current ratio | 3.0 |
| FCF quality | 9.8 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 419%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 144% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.6/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -10.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 69%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $194,279 (0.014% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.8 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 1.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
0.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.5 |
| support resistance | 2.1 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.9 |
| days to cover | 4.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.6 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High IV: 89%
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.4 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:3.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:26d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.7>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
3.17
Upside
+47.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 26d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -60% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 9.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.17 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.1, Quality at 7.0, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 0.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.2, and Growth at 3.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.17 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for any single quarter.
- P2Attractive Valuation Analyst Upside
Trip ifImplied upside to the consensus price target compresses below 25% from the current 60.7%.
- P3Strong Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 80% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Technical Downtrend Death Cross
Trip ifStock closes above its 200-day moving average for 5 consecutive sessions with the 30-day slope turning positive.