Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.8 |
| P/S | 5.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.0 |
| PEG | 7.3 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.95
BLK · Why this verdict
Why BlackRock (BLK) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BlackRock is a high-quality asset manager with a perfect 9/9 Piotroski score, industry-leading growth and a bullish breakout, but price sits near its 52-week high with only 6.6% upside to the analyst target against 9.3% downside to the stop.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
BlackRock has strong 24% margins, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, a moat score of 7.2 and a quality score of 8.6. Quality breakdown | Margins hold near 24% and quality stays at or above 8.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAsset manager revenue depends on market levels and fund flows, so margins can compress in a prolonged market drawdown. | ||
BlackRock is an industry growth leader, with revenue growth at 7.3 and earnings growth at 7.1, and a growth rank of 8.1 versus peers. Peer-rank breakdown | Revenue and earnings growth components stay above 6.0 over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.67 and fee-based revenue is tied to asset values, which can reverse with markets. | ||
BlackRock is in a breakout setup with a golden cross, price above all moving averages, RSI 63, bullish MACD and rising on-balance volume, giving momentum of 7.4/10. Chart pattern detection | Price holds above its 200-day average and momentum stays at or above 6.0 through the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterPrice is only 3.3% from the 52-week high and a golden cross is a lagging signal that often appears late in a move. | ||
Price of $1,147.54 is 6.6% below the analyst target of $1,222.84, against 9.3% downside to the $1,059.55 stop, a reward-to-risk of only 0.7. Risk reward | Price pulls back toward the $1,118.21 entry level or analysts lift targets above $1,250. | →Stable |
| CounterTargets are haircut by 10% and quality compounders often keep rising through nominal targets, so upside may be understated. | ||
Forward P/E is 17.7x with a PEG of 0.95, and the put/call ratio is elevated at 1.50 with price well above the $840 max pain level. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 20x and the put/call ratio eases below 1.0. | →Stable |
| CounterA put/call ratio near 1.5 on a large-cap often reflects portfolio hedging rather than bearish conviction. | ||
BlackRock has strong 24% margins, a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, a moat score of 7.2 and a quality score of 8.6.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins hold near 24% and quality stays at or above 8.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterAsset manager revenue depends on market levels and fund flows, so margins can compress in a prolonged market drawdown.
BlackRock is an industry growth leader, with revenue growth at 7.3 and earnings growth at 7.1, and a growth rank of 8.1 versus peers.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue and earnings growth components stay above 6.0 over the next four quarters.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.67 and fee-based revenue is tied to asset values, which can reverse with markets.
BlackRock is in a breakout setup with a golden cross, price above all moving averages, RSI 63, bullish MACD and rising on-balance volume, giving momentum of 7.4/10.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price holds above its 200-day average and momentum stays at or above 6.0 through the next two quarters.
CounterPrice is only 3.3% from the 52-week high and a golden cross is a lagging signal that often appears late in a move.
Price of $1,147.54 is 6.6% below the analyst target of $1,222.84, against 9.3% downside to the $1,059.55 stop, a reward-to-risk of only 0.7.
→StableRisk reward
- Expectation
- Price pulls back toward the $1,118.21 entry level or analysts lift targets above $1,250.
CounterTargets are haircut by 10% and quality compounders often keep rising through nominal targets, so upside may be understated.
Forward P/E is 17.7x with a PEG of 0.95, and the put/call ratio is elevated at 1.50 with price well above the $840 max pain level.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 20x and the put/call ratio eases below 1.0.
CounterA put/call ratio near 1.5 on a large-cap often reflects portfolio hedging rather than bearish conviction.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.6/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 5.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 24%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.3 |
| EPS growth | 7.1 |
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 4.1 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 8.8 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
Insider
4.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.4 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 4.0 |
| growth rank | 8.1 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.2 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| put call | 4.4 |
| implied vol | 6.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.5 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
- ▸Above max pain $840
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.3 |
| dividend safety | 4.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
V9 Gate blocked: R/R 0.6x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_D_BALANCED->V9:POOR_ASYMMETRY|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:72d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- SECTOR_CONCENTRATION_CAP:sector=Financial Services:9/10:self_excluded
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.6<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.56
Upside
+5.3%
Downside
9.4%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.38>1.3
Investment implication
The D-path balanced-high-score trigger fired: quality 8.6 and momentum 6.3 both cleared their gates at R:R of 0.56.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.6, Growth at 7.2, and Sentiment at 7.1; the weakest are Insider at 4.1, Technical at 4.4, and Value at 5.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.56 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Asset Manager
Trip ifQuality score falls below 7.0 from current 8.6.
- P2Industry Growth Leader
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 3% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Breakout Momentum Intact
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.0 from current 7.4.
- P4Thin Upside Versus Downside
Trip ifPrice drops to $1,059.55 or below, the stop level.
- P5Valuation And Options Skew
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 22x from current 17.7x without an earnings upgrade.