Value
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.6 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 7.2 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.96
- ▸Attractively valued
BLBD · Why this verdict
Why Blue Bird (BLBD) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Blue Bird combines a wide moat, 64% return on equity and 30% revenue growth at a 12.5x forward P/E with 38.7% upside to the analyst target, but single-source supplier dependence, negative cash conversion and a pullback in momentum temper the case.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Blue Bird earns an excellent 64% return on equity with strong 17% margins and a wide economic moat, ranking best in class against peers on quality. Quality breakdown | Return on equity stays above 40% and margins hold near 17% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings quality is flagged as a red flag at -4% free cash flow to net income, so reported profit is not converting to cash. | ||
Revenue growth is strong at 30% year over year, giving the growth score its maximum value of 10.0. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% year over year over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 because just one growth component is available, and cyclical bus demand can normalize sharply. | ||
Two high-severity supplier concentration risks are flagged: single-source suppliers for critical bus components and Ford Component Sales as exclusive engine supplier. Bear case | Production runs without supplier disruption and delivered units keep growing over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterLong-standing exclusive supplier relationships can provide cost and reliability advantages, and no disruption event is reported in the data. | ||
Blue Bird beat estimates in 3 of 4 quarters with a +16.8% average surprise, and price of $55.90 is 38.7% below the analyst target of $77.54. Last 4 quarters | Earnings continue to beat in the 2026-11-25 report and price moves toward the $77.54 target. | →Stable |
| CounterThe latest quarter was a small miss (-1.6%) and analyst coverage is light, which dampens the reliability of the target. | ||
Momentum is 3.8/10 with falling on-balance volume, price below a still-rising 200-day average, and short interest of 16%. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum rises above 5.0 over the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 200-day average is still rising 1.7% over 30 days, so this reads as a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness. | ||
Blue Bird earns an excellent 64% return on equity with strong 17% margins and a wide economic moat, ranking best in class against peers on quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity stays above 40% and margins hold near 17% over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings quality is flagged as a red flag at -4% free cash flow to net income, so reported profit is not converting to cash.
Revenue growth is strong at 30% year over year, giving the growth score its maximum value of 10.0.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% year over year over the next four quarters.
CounterGrowth confidence is only 0.33 because just one growth component is available, and cyclical bus demand can normalize sharply.
Two high-severity supplier concentration risks are flagged: single-source suppliers for critical bus components and Ford Component Sales as exclusive engine supplier.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Production runs without supplier disruption and delivered units keep growing over 12 months.
CounterLong-standing exclusive supplier relationships can provide cost and reliability advantages, and no disruption event is reported in the data.
Blue Bird beat estimates in 3 of 4 quarters with a +16.8% average surprise, and price of $55.90 is 38.7% below the analyst target of $77.54.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Earnings continue to beat in the 2026-11-25 report and price moves toward the $77.54 target.
CounterThe latest quarter was a small miss (-1.6%) and analyst coverage is light, which dampens the reliability of the target.
Momentum is 3.8/10 with falling on-balance volume, price below a still-rising 200-day average, and short interest of 16%.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average and momentum rises above 5.0 over the next two quarters.
CounterThe 200-day average is still rising 1.7% over 30 days, so this reads as a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 9.1 |
| Gross margin | 0.1 |
| Op margin | 4.8 |
| Net margin | 8.7 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 64%
- ▸Strong margins: 17%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -4% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 30% YoY
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.9 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 49%
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.3 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $227,070 (0.012% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
8.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.0 |
| quality rank | 9.4 |
| growth rank | 7.8 |
- ▸Best in class
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 4.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.2 |
| days to cover | 1.8 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 3.8 |
| implied vol | 3.9 |
| beta | 5.2 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
- ▸High short interest: 16%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:3.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:22d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
3.52
Upside
+29.8%
Downside
8.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 22d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.45>1.3, MCap $2.0B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:3.5>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 1.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.4, and Peer rank at 8.2; the weakest are Technical at 1.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.3, and Momentum at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.52 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Returns Wide Moat
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 30% from current 64%.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% year over year from current 30%.
- P3Supplier Concentration Risk
Trip ifQuarterly unit deliveries drop more than 10% year over year due to a supplier shortage.
- P4Earnings Beats With Large Upside
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% in the 2026-11-25 report and the next quarter.
- P5Pullback Weak Momentum High Short
Trip ifPrice drops to $53.02 or below, the stop level, with short interest above 16%.