Value
8.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.1x
- ▸Attractively valued
BKE · Why this verdict
Why Buckle, Inc. (The) (BKE) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Buckle is a high-quality, cheaply valued apparel retailer with a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak and a 46% return on equity, but price has run 15.7% above the analyst target and sits in a downtrend with weak growth.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Buckle earns an excellent 46% return on equity with strong 17% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, giving a quality score of 7.7. Quality breakdown | Return on equity stays above 35% and margins hold near 17% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is only 60% of net income, an earnings-quality warning, and apparel retail margins can compress quickly if fashion demand turns. | ||
Buckle beat estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of +9.6%, including +24.7% on 2026-05-29, with the next report on 2026-11-20. Last 4 quarters | The beat streak extends to at least 6 quarters with positive surprises each time. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe surprise margins have narrowed in some quarters (+0.9% in November 2025), and a streak of small beats against lowered estimates can end abruptly. | ||
Price of $46.38 is 15.7% above the analyst target of $39.10, so the target is reached and reward-to-risk is negative at -1.72. Upside pct | Price pulls back toward the $43.06 entry level or analysts raise targets above $46 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets are often stale for small caps with consistent beats, and the stock could keep rising as earnings are delivered. | ||
Price is below its 200-day average with the average sloping down 2.1% over 30 days and falling on-balance volume, while growth scores only 2.7. Momentum breakdown | Price regains the 200-day average and revenue growth improves above 5% year over year. | →Stable |
| CounterQuarterly revenue of $319.8 million is up from $305.7 million a year earlier, so the top line is growing despite the low growth score. | ||
Forward P/E is 11.2x with an attractive value score of 8.8 and a 3.0% dividend yield. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 13x while the dividend is maintained. | →Stable |
| CounterA low multiple on a cyclical apparel retailer may reflect the market pricing in peak margins that mean-revert. | ||
Buckle earns an excellent 46% return on equity with strong 17% margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, giving a quality score of 7.7.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity stays above 35% and margins hold near 17% over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow is only 60% of net income, an earnings-quality warning, and apparel retail margins can compress quickly if fashion demand turns.
Buckle beat estimates in all 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of +9.6%, including +24.7% on 2026-05-29, with the next report on 2026-11-20.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to at least 6 quarters with positive surprises each time.
CounterThe surprise margins have narrowed in some quarters (+0.9% in November 2025), and a streak of small beats against lowered estimates can end abruptly.
Price of $46.38 is 15.7% above the analyst target of $39.10, so the target is reached and reward-to-risk is negative at -1.72.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price pulls back toward the $43.06 entry level or analysts raise targets above $46 within 12 months.
CounterAnalyst targets are often stale for small caps with consistent beats, and the stock could keep rising as earnings are delivered.
Price is below its 200-day average with the average sloping down 2.1% over 30 days and falling on-balance volume, while growth scores only 2.7.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price regains the 200-day average and revenue growth improves above 5% year over year.
CounterQuarterly revenue of $319.8 million is up from $305.7 million a year earlier, so the top line is growing despite the low growth score.
Forward P/E is 11.2x with an attractive value score of 8.8 and a 3.0% dividend yield.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 13x while the dividend is maintained.
CounterA low multiple on a cyclical apparel retailer may reflect the market pricing in peak margins that mean-revert.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.8 |
| Op margin | 7.0 |
| Net margin | 8.3 |
| Current ratio | 7.2 |
| FCF quality | 4.6 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 46%
- ▸Strong margins: 17%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 60% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
2.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.7 |
| EPS growth | 1.6 |
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.9 |
| OBV | 1.3 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 5.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Contrarian divergence: +2.0 (bearish sentiment + deep value + high quality)
Insider
5.7/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.4 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $116,870 (0.005% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.7 |
| quality rank | 8.6 |
| growth rank | 2.0 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.5 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 7.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.0 |
| days to cover | 2.3 |
| volatility | 5.6 |
| put call | 8.3 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 5.8 |
- ▸Above max pain $32
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.8 |
| dividend safety | 6.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 3.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $47.88 vs the analyst target $39.10: -18.3% upside; No upside left.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33|V8:TARGET_REACHED|SANITY:BUY+upside<=0Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:15d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.53
Upside
-18.3%
Downside
12.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 15d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.5=NEGATIVE outcome against Value at 8.8 and asymmetric R:R of -1.53.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.8, Quality at 7.7, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Growth at 2.7, Technical at 3.7, and Momentum at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.53 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Retail Economics
Trip ifQuality score falls below 6.0 from current 7.7.
- P2Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% in the 2026-11-20 report and the next one.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds $52.50, the max pain level, without the analyst target rising above $46.
- P4Downtrend And Weak Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 0% year over year for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Attractive Valuation And Dividend
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from current 11.2x without an earnings upgrade.