Value
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.9 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 32.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.36
BIP · Why this verdict
Why Brookfield Infrastructure Partn (BIP) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Brookfield Infrastructure shows a decent technical uptrend and strong earnings growth scores, but weak business quality, negative cash conversion and repeated earnings misses leave little margin for error ahead of the 2026-11-06 report.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality is below the engine's 4.0 floor at 3.4, with earnings quality flagged at -265% free cash flow to net income and no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive relative to net income and the quality score recovers above 4.0 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInfrastructure partnerships carry heavy depreciation and growth capex, so reported net income and free cash flow understate durable contract-based cash generation. | ||
The last four quarters show 2 misses and 2 beats with an average surprise of -55.2%, including a -128.6% miss on 2026-07-30 and -198.0% on 2026-04-29. Last 4 quarters | Quarterly results come in at or above estimates for the next 4 quarters, lifting the average surprise above 0%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPer-unit earnings for infrastructure partnerships are noisy because of asset sale gains and fair-value items, so surprises may not reflect operating health. | ||
Price is in a breakout setup with a golden cross, above all moving averages, RSI 56 and bullish MACD, with momentum at 5.2/10. Chart pattern detection | Price holds above the 200-day average and momentum stays at or above 5.0 through the year. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume signals distribution, so the uptrend may lack buyer conviction and could reverse after earnings. | ||
Price of $37.32 sits 8.2% below the analyst target of $40.37 against a 5.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of about 1.6. Risk reward | Price advances toward the $40.37 target without breaking the $35.60 stop level. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst upside of 24% in the sentiment notes suggests the target may be conservative and more room could exist. | ||
Dividend safety scores 3.7 with a yield-trap warning, and options show an elevated put/call ratio of 5.33 with price above the $30 max pain level. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend coverage improves and the put/call ratio normalizes below 2 over the next year. | ↑Improving |
| CounterPut-heavy positioning on thin open interest is often hedging by holders rather than a directional bearish signal. | ||
Business quality is below the engine's 4.0 floor at 3.4, with earnings quality flagged at -265% free cash flow to net income and no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive relative to net income and the quality score recovers above 4.0 over 12 months.
CounterInfrastructure partnerships carry heavy depreciation and growth capex, so reported net income and free cash flow understate durable contract-based cash generation.
The last four quarters show 2 misses and 2 beats with an average surprise of -55.2%, including a -128.6% miss on 2026-07-30 and -198.0% on 2026-04-29.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly results come in at or above estimates for the next 4 quarters, lifting the average surprise above 0%.
CounterPer-unit earnings for infrastructure partnerships are noisy because of asset sale gains and fair-value items, so surprises may not reflect operating health.
Price is in a breakout setup with a golden cross, above all moving averages, RSI 56 and bullish MACD, with momentum at 5.2/10.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day average and momentum stays at or above 5.0 through the year.
CounterFalling on-balance volume signals distribution, so the uptrend may lack buyer conviction and could reverse after earnings.
Price of $37.32 sits 8.2% below the analyst target of $40.37 against a 5.0% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of about 1.6.
↑ImprovingRisk reward
- Expectation
- Price advances toward the $40.37 target without breaking the $35.60 stop level.
CounterAnalyst upside of 24% in the sentiment notes suggests the target may be conservative and more room could exist.
Dividend safety scores 3.7 with a yield-trap warning, and options show an elevated put/call ratio of 5.33 with price above the $30 max pain level.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend coverage improves and the put/call ratio normalizes below 2 over the next year.
CounterPut-heavy positioning on thin open interest is often hedging by holders rather than a directional bearish signal.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.6 |
| ROA | 2.2 |
| Gross margin | 1.3 |
| Op margin | 9.1 |
| Net margin | 0.6 |
| Current ratio | 3.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -265% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 8.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
3.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 1.7 |
| growth rank | 6.7 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.1 |
| support resistance | 3.8 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 6.4 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 3.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.9 |
| debt equity | 2.9 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $20
Catalyst
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 3.7 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.47
Upside
+7.7%
Downside
5.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the EARNINGS_PROXIMITY gate's 1d<=7d outcome against Growth at 8.7 and asymmetric R:R of 1.47.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.7, Momentum at 6.9, and Sentiment at 6.8; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.3, Quality at 3.4, and Catalyst at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.47 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Weak Quality Cash Conversion
Trip ifQuality score stays below 4.0 for 2 consecutive quarterly updates from current 3.4.
- P2Repeated Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 more consecutive quarters, starting with the 2026-11-06 report.
- P3Technical Uptrend Intact
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.0 from current 5.2.
- P4Limited Upside Modest Reward
Trip ifPrice drops to $35.60 or below, the stop level, before reaching the $40.37 target.
- P5Yield Trap And Options Stress
Trip ifPut/call ratio stays above 5.0 for 2 consecutive months from current 5.33.