Value
6.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.45
BILL · Why this verdict
Why BILL Holdings (BILL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BILL Holdings is a growing software company with a perfect four-quarter beat streak and strong Piotroski score, but thin upside to the analyst target, notable insider selling and a heavily hedged, 17%-shorted stock into earnings in 4 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company beat estimates in all 4 recent quarters (average surprise 19.2%), with EPS of 0.84 and quarterly revenue rising to $436M from $383M a year earlier. Earnings | Beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with quarterly revenue above $438M. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRevenue growth scores only 5.9/10, and the stock has to deliver another beat just to hold current levels after a run-up. | ||
The company is FCF-positive despite a GAAP loss, with FCF margin of 13%, FCF yield of 5.4% and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, at a forward P/E of 11.1x. Quality breakdown | FCF margin stays above 10% and forward P/E stays below 15x. | →Stable |
| CounterFCF in software is helped by stock-based compensation add-backs, so GAAP losses and a quality score of only 4.8 show weaker real earnings. | ||
At $48.31 the stock is only 6.3% below the $51.34 analyst target while downside to the stop is 10.2%, a reward-to-risk of 0.62. Bear case | Analyst targets rise above $58 or the price pulls back toward a better entry. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA breakout setup with strong earnings could drive upward target revisions that widen the gap. | ||
Insider selling is notable at about $14.7M, or 0.353% of market cap, over 90 days, a bearish signal alongside institutions accumulating. Insider breakdown | Net insider selling falls below $5M over the next 90 days. | →Stable |
| CounterSoftware executives sell on pre-arranged schedules for compensation reasons and $14.7M is small relative to the market cap. | ||
Short interest is high at 17% and the put/call ratio is 3.07 with implied volatility of 77%, so the market is positioned for a sharp move around earnings in 4 days. Key risks | Short interest declines below 12% after the earnings report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigh short interest plus a beat streak creates squeeze potential if results exceed expectations. | ||
The company beat estimates in all 4 recent quarters (average surprise 19.2%), with EPS of 0.84 and quarterly revenue rising to $436M from $383M a year earlier.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with quarterly revenue above $438M.
CounterRevenue growth scores only 5.9/10, and the stock has to deliver another beat just to hold current levels after a run-up.
The company is FCF-positive despite a GAAP loss, with FCF margin of 13%, FCF yield of 5.4% and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, at a forward P/E of 11.1x.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF margin stays above 10% and forward P/E stays below 15x.
CounterFCF in software is helped by stock-based compensation add-backs, so GAAP losses and a quality score of only 4.8 show weaker real earnings.
At $48.31 the stock is only 6.3% below the $51.34 analyst target while downside to the stop is 10.2%, a reward-to-risk of 0.62.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst targets rise above $58 or the price pulls back toward a better entry.
CounterA breakout setup with strong earnings could drive upward target revisions that widen the gap.
Insider selling is notable at about $14.7M, or 0.353% of market cap, over 90 days, a bearish signal alongside institutions accumulating.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Net insider selling falls below $5M over the next 90 days.
CounterSoftware executives sell on pre-arranged schedules for compensation reasons and $14.7M is small relative to the market cap.
Short interest is high at 17% and the put/call ratio is 3.07 with implied volatility of 77%, so the market is positioned for a sharp move around earnings in 4 days.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest declines below 12% after the earnings report.
CounterHigh short interest plus a beat streak creates squeeze potential if results exceed expectations.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 3.9 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 6.7 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 13%, FCF yield 5.2%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
5.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.9 |
Momentum
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 8.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $14,661,033 (0.343% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.7 |
| quality rank | 2.7 |
| growth rank | 5.1 |
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.9 |
| support resistance | 0.4 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.6 |
| days to cover | 3.7 |
| volatility | 3.2 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 7.8 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 19%
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.41
- ▸High IV: 85%
- ▸Above max pain $36
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 1 day
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- MOMENTUM:8.2>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (1)
- INSIDER:0.34%=MODERATE
Reward-to-Risk
-0.07
Upside
-1.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 8.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.07 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.2, Catalyst at 7.6, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.2, Technical at 3.6, and Peer rank at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.07 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Beat Streak Growing Revenue
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in more than 1 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Fcf Positive Despite Gaap Loss
Trip ifFCF margin falls below 8% from the current 13%.
- P3Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the stop level 10.2% under $48.31 (about $43.38).
- P4Insider Selling Pressure
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $30M over 90 days.
- P5Short Interest And Options Hedging
Trip ifShort interest rises above 25% from the current 17%.