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BHRBBurke & Herbert Financial ServiHold6.6·$73.19-0.02%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

BHRB combines an attractive valuation, a solid earnings beat streak, and a recent positive news-driven upgrade, but a negative modeled asymmetry near its 52-week high tempers the setup even as insiders have been modest net buyers.

Thesis pillars

  • Positive News Modifier UpgradeDeteriorating
  • Attractive Valuation Vs PeersStable
  • Earnings Beat Streak With Rising EstimatesImproving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Burke & Herbert Financial Servi (BHRB) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $73.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (51.4%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. is the Virginia-based holding company for Burke & Herbert Bank & Trust Company, a state-chartered commercial bank founded in 1852 serving small to medium-sized businesses and individuals across more than 77 branch and loan-office... Read more

$73.19-7.0% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#42 of 224 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield3.01%(5y avg 3.60%)Payout36.01%sustainable
Stop $70.19Target $84.12(default +15%)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$80.00+9.3%4 analysts
$84.12our TP
$73.19price
$80.00mean
$84

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $73.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (51.4%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 22, 202669d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (51.4%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.6% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.1
P/E (Fwd)8.4
Mkt Cap$1.5B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn26.9%
ROE9.8%
Rev Growth22.3%
Beta0.22
Dividend3.01%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial real estate loans51%
    10-K Item 1A: 'commercial real estate – 51.4%; owner-occupied commercial real estate – 11.0%; commercial and industrial – 8.6%; and acquisition, construction & development – 7.2%.'
  • LOWloan_portfoliotop 10 borrowing relationships9.9%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our 10 largest borrowing relationships accounted for approximately 9.9% of our total loans at December 31, 2025.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-23Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Roy E. Halyama, the Company's EVP and CFO, appointed President of the Company and the Bank effective July 1, 2026, succeeding H. Charles Maddy, III, who retires effective June 30, 2026 as previously announced. Clean handoff; successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-01Item 2.01MEDIUM
    Burke & Herbert completed its previously announced merger with LINKBANCORP, Inc. effective May 1, 2026; LINKBANK merged into Burke & Herbert Bank & Trust Company, with Burke & Herbert Bank surviving. LNKB shareholders received 0.1350 shares of Burke & Herbert common stock per LNKB share.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $67.99Resistance $74.52

Price Targets

$70
$84
A.Upside-7.0%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-22 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BHRB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $73.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (51.4%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $84.12 (+14.9%), stop $70.19 (−4.3%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BHRB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $84.12 (-7.0% upside). Target $84.12 (+14.9%), stop $70.19 (−4.3%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Stop-loss: $70.19.

What are the risks of investing in BHRB?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate loans (51.4%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.6% away).

Is BHRB overvalued or undervalued?

Burke & Herbert Financial Servi trades at a P/E of 12.1 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BHRB?

10 analysts cover BHRB with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $80.

What does Burke & Herbert Financial Servi do?Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. is the Virginia-based holding company for Burke & Herbert Bank & Trust...

Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. is the Virginia-based holding company for Burke & Herbert Bank & Trust Company, a state-chartered commercial bank founded in 1852 serving small to medium-sized businesses and individuals across more than 77 branch and loan-office locations in Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and Kentucky. The bank reported $7.9 billion in total assets, $5.3 billion in gross loans, and $6.4 billion in deposits as of December 31, 2025, and completed its acquisition of LINKBANCORP, Inc. on May 1, 2026 after merging with Summit Financial Group in 2024.

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