Value
9.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 2.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.00
- ▸Attractively valued
BHF · Why this verdict
Why Brighthouse Financial (BHF) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Brighthouse Financial is a deeply discounted life insurer (forward P/E 2.2x, 40% analyst upside) in a capitulation-style downtrend, with four straight earnings misses and a 5.41 put/call ratio, so the valuation case is offset by heavy negative momentum and event risk in 4 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Valuation is very low with a forward P/E of 2.2x, and at $43.92 the stock is 22.2% below the $53.65 analyst target against 5.4% downside, a reward-to-risk of 4.13. Targets | Price moves toward the $53.65 target as the valuation discount narrows. | ↑Improving |
| CounterInsurers with opaque liability and market-sensitive earnings often trade at low multiples because reported earnings are unreliable. | ||
Revenue growth is strong at 87% YoY and the company ranks as an industry growth leader, but quarterly revenue is lumpy, ranging from $74M to $2.4B across recent periods. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stays above $1.4B, near the $2.2B next-quarter estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterInsurance revenue includes investment and derivative gains that swing sharply, so the 87% growth rate may not recur. | ||
The company missed estimates in all 4 recent quarters (average surprise -11.9%), with latest EPS of 4.45, and reports again in 4 days. Earnings | The company beats estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMisses of about 12% in a volatile-earnings insurer may reflect market-driven noise, not deteriorating operations. | ||
Price is in a confirmed downtrend, below the 200-day average with a -4.0%/30d slope, falling OBV and RSI at 23, and momentum is only 1.6/10. Momentum breakdown | RSI recovers above 40 and price stabilizes above the 200-day average. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCapitulation readings with a death cross often precede more selling; value buyers may not step in until after earnings. | ||
Options and short positioning are bearish: the put/call ratio is 5.41, implied volatility is 96%, and short interest is 14%. Key risks | Put/call falls below 2.0 and short interest declines below 10%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterExtreme put activity can reflect hedging of long positions, and high short interest can fuel a squeeze if earnings surprise. | ||
Valuation is very low with a forward P/E of 2.2x, and at $43.92 the stock is 22.2% below the $53.65 analyst target against 5.4% downside, a reward-to-risk of 4.13.
↑ImprovingTargets
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $53.65 target as the valuation discount narrows.
CounterInsurers with opaque liability and market-sensitive earnings often trade at low multiples because reported earnings are unreliable.
Revenue growth is strong at 87% YoY and the company ranks as an industry growth leader, but quarterly revenue is lumpy, ranging from $74M to $2.4B across recent periods.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stays above $1.4B, near the $2.2B next-quarter estimate.
CounterInsurance revenue includes investment and derivative gains that swing sharply, so the 87% growth rate may not recur.
The company missed estimates in all 4 recent quarters (average surprise -11.9%), with latest EPS of 4.45, and reports again in 4 days.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterMisses of about 12% in a volatile-earnings insurer may reflect market-driven noise, not deteriorating operations.
Price is in a confirmed downtrend, below the 200-day average with a -4.0%/30d slope, falling OBV and RSI at 23, and momentum is only 1.6/10.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI recovers above 40 and price stabilizes above the 200-day average.
CounterCapitulation readings with a death cross often precede more selling; value buyers may not step in until after earnings.
Options and short positioning are bearish: the put/call ratio is 5.41, implied volatility is 96%, and short interest is 14%.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Put/call falls below 2.0 and short interest declines below 10%.
CounterExtreme put activity can reflect hedging of long positions, and high short interest can fuel a squeeze if earnings surprise.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 0.2 |
| Gross margin | 3.1 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 6.1 |
| Current ratio | 3.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 87% YoY
Momentum
1.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 12, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 6.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 46%
Insider
6.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.2 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.0 |
| quality rank | 5.2 |
| growth rank | 8.7 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.3 |
| support resistance | 9.9 |
| 52w position | 2.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.2 |
| days to cover | 3.4 |
| volatility | 4.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 8.1 |
| debt equity | 3.4 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.20
- ▸High IV: 101%
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.3 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:4.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.0<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
4.32
Upside
+26.9%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 12, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:4.3>=1.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 1.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 9.8, and Technical at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 1.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.3, and Catalyst at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 4.32 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value And Analyst Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below the stop level 5.4% under $43.92 (about $41.55).
- P2Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $1.0B for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Missed Earnings Streak
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in more than 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4Capitulation Downtrend
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 2.0 for 2 consecutive months.
- P5Bearish Options Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest rises above 20% from the current 14%.