Value
4.9/10data confidence 40%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.3 |
BH-A · Why this verdict
Why Biglari Holdings (BH-A) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Biglari Holdings Class A is a restaurant-led holding company with a strong Piotroski score and rising accumulation volume, but low quality, no moat, 22% short interest and exhausted upside make it a hold rather than an add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Financial health is solid with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a current ratio score of 8.3, but there is no competitive moat and overall quality is 3.8, below the 4.0 floor. Quality breakdown | Quality score recovers above 4.0 as operating margin improves from its current thin level. | →Stable |
| CounterRestaurants are a low-moat, high-competition industry, so a strong balance sheet may not translate into excess returns. | ||
Quarterly revenue has risen from about $91M a year ago to $108.5M in the latest quarter, a base of steady restaurant sales growth. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue stays above $100M and grows by at least 5% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue growth scores only 4.5/10 and earnings growth is 0.0, so sales gains are not reaching the bottom line. | ||
Short interest is high at 22% of float, which investors view as a bet against the stock, although days-to-cover is the highest-risk reading at 10.0. Key risks | Short interest declines below 15% as the stock holds above its 200-day average. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh short interest in a thinly traded Class A share priced near $1,906 can fuel squeezes in either direction and makes exits difficult. | ||
Rising OBV shows volume accumulation, institutions are accumulating, and price is above the 200-day average, though momentum is only 4.8/10 with MACD flat. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day average and momentum rises above 5.5. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMomentum below 5.5 and flat MACD show the uptrend is not strongly confirmed, so a loss of support could arrive quickly. | ||
Reported quarterly EPS has been negative and volatile (-18.71 and -0.23 in the two most recent quarters) with 1 beat and 1 miss, so earnings are an unreliable anchor for valuation. Earnings | Quarterly EPS turns positive and beats estimates in at least 2 of the next 3 reports. | →Stable |
| CounterLarge swings in EPS at holding companies often come from non-operating investment marks, not restaurant performance. | ||
Financial health is solid with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a current ratio score of 8.3, but there is no competitive moat and overall quality is 3.8, below the 4.0 floor.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score recovers above 4.0 as operating margin improves from its current thin level.
CounterRestaurants are a low-moat, high-competition industry, so a strong balance sheet may not translate into excess returns.
Quarterly revenue has risen from about $91M a year ago to $108.5M in the latest quarter, a base of steady restaurant sales growth.
→StableRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stays above $100M and grows by at least 5% over the next 12 months.
CounterRevenue growth scores only 4.5/10 and earnings growth is 0.0, so sales gains are not reaching the bottom line.
Short interest is high at 22% of float, which investors view as a bet against the stock, although days-to-cover is the highest-risk reading at 10.0.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest declines below 15% as the stock holds above its 200-day average.
CounterHigh short interest in a thinly traded Class A share priced near $1,906 can fuel squeezes in either direction and makes exits difficult.
Rising OBV shows volume accumulation, institutions are accumulating, and price is above the 200-day average, though momentum is only 4.8/10 with MACD flat.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day average and momentum rises above 5.5.
CounterMomentum below 5.5 and flat MACD show the uptrend is not strongly confirmed, so a loss of support could arrive quickly.
Reported quarterly EPS has been negative and volatile (-18.71 and -0.23 in the two most recent quarters) with 1 beat and 1 miss, so earnings are an unreliable anchor for valuation.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Quarterly EPS turns positive and beats estimates in at least 2 of the next 3 reports.
CounterLarge swings in EPS at holding companies often come from non-operating investment marks, not restaurant performance.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 3.8 |
| Op margin | 3.1 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.3 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 0.4 |
| growth rank | 4.7 |
Technical
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.0 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 4.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.3 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 7.0 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 22%
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+22.1%
Downside
11.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.6<4.5 outcome against Insider at 7.3 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.3, Technical at 7.3, and Catalyst at 6.1; the weakest are Growth at 2.2, Momentum at 3.6, and Quality at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Piotroski Weak Moat
Trip ifQuality score falls below 3.0 from the current 3.8.
- P2Steady Restaurant Revenue Base
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $95M from the current $108.5M.
- P3High Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest rises above 30% from the current 22%.
- P4Accumulation Above Trend
Trip ifPrice falls below the 200-day average with momentum score below 3.0.
- P5Volatile Earnings History
Trip ifQuarterly EPS stays below $0 for 3 consecutive quarters.