Value
6.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
BETA · Why this verdict
Why Beta Technologies (BETA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Beta Technologies is a hyper-growth aerospace company (146% YoY revenue growth) with attractive valuation versus analyst targets, but heavy cash burn, a 49% drawdown and persistent insider selling make it a speculative holding rather than a quality compounder.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 146% YoY and the company ranks as an industry growth leader, with quarterly revenue reaching $14.7M in the latest period. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue continues to rise toward the $10.8M-plus next-quarter estimate and beyond, sustaining growth above 50% YoY. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth comes off a tiny base of a few million dollars per quarter and revenue has been lumpy, so the percentage growth may not persist as comparisons toughen. | ||
The business is cash-burning, with free cash flow at -682% of revenue, which pulls quality down to 3.4, below the 4.0 minimum floor. Quality breakdown | Cash burn as a share of revenue narrows materially and quality score recovers above 4.0 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarly-stage aerospace manufacturers burn cash by design while scaling; a strong current ratio and low debt mean funding risk may be modest. | ||
Analysts see 61% upside and the take-profit at $28.03 implies 39.8% upside from $20.05 against 14.6% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 2.73. Targets | Price moves toward the $28.03 analyst-based target without breaking the $18.65 stop level. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target signal is dampened, and a 96% implied volatility means the stop can be hit by noise. | ||
Insiders sold about $11.3M against only about $0.5M of buying over 90 days (35 sells versus 2 buys), a bearish signal with the latest transaction on 2026-10-30. Insider | Net insider selling fades and buying count rises over the next two quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterPost-IPO insiders often sell for liquidity or diversification, and $10.8M is only 0.231% of market cap, so it may carry little information. | ||
Earnings arrive in 2 days with a record of 2 beats and 2 misses and quarterly losses of -0.46, -0.40, -1.71 and -1.94 per share, so results are a high-variance event on a stock 49% off its high. Earnings | Quarterly loss per share narrows and results beat estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 reports. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLosses are narrowing from the -1.94 level and implied volatility of 96% already prices a big move, so a miss may already be reflected in the price. | ||
Revenue is growing 146% YoY and the company ranks as an industry growth leader, with quarterly revenue reaching $14.7M in the latest period.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue continues to rise toward the $10.8M-plus next-quarter estimate and beyond, sustaining growth above 50% YoY.
CounterGrowth comes off a tiny base of a few million dollars per quarter and revenue has been lumpy, so the percentage growth may not persist as comparisons toughen.
The business is cash-burning, with free cash flow at -682% of revenue, which pulls quality down to 3.4, below the 4.0 minimum floor.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Cash burn as a share of revenue narrows materially and quality score recovers above 4.0 over 12 months.
CounterEarly-stage aerospace manufacturers burn cash by design while scaling; a strong current ratio and low debt mean funding risk may be modest.
Analysts see 61% upside and the take-profit at $28.03 implies 39.8% upside from $20.05 against 14.6% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 2.73.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $28.03 analyst-based target without breaking the $18.65 stop level.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the target signal is dampened, and a 96% implied volatility means the stop can be hit by noise.
Insiders sold about $11.3M against only about $0.5M of buying over 90 days (35 sells versus 2 buys), a bearish signal with the latest transaction on 2026-10-30.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Net insider selling fades and buying count rises over the next two quarters.
CounterPost-IPO insiders often sell for liquidity or diversification, and $10.8M is only 0.231% of market cap, so it may carry little information.
Earnings arrive in 2 days with a record of 2 beats and 2 misses and quarterly losses of -0.46, -0.40, -1.71 and -1.94 per share, so results are a high-variance event on a stock 49% off its high.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Quarterly loss per share narrows and results beat estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 reports.
CounterLosses are narrowing from the -1.94 level and implied volatility of 96% already prices a big move, so a miss may already be reflected in the price.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 8.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -682% of revenue
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 146% YoY
Momentum
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 9.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 80)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 80 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.6 |
| Analyst rating | 8.0 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (9.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 27%
Insider
3.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.3 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $10,834,125 (0.196% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 2.8 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.0 |
| days to cover | 6.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸High IV: 84%
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:8.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.7<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.72
Upside
+10.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.7<1.5@spot outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.72.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Momentum at 8.2, and Sentiment at 7.4; the weakest are Technical at 2.1, Quality at 3.4, and Insider at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.72 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Hyper Growth Revenue Ramp
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 50% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Cash Burn Quality Risk
Trip ifFree cash flow burn exceeds 800% of revenue.
- P3Analyst Upside And Valuation
Trip ifPrice falls below the $18.65 stop level, cutting reward-to-risk to less than 1.5.
- P4Insider Selling Overhang
Trip ifInsider net selling exceeds $20M over 90 days.
- P5Earnings Volatility Event
Trip ifQuarterly loss per share widens to more than -$1.00 for 2 consecutive quarters.