Value
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.9 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.39
- ▸Attractively valued
BEN · Why this verdict
Why Franklin Templeton (BEN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Franklin Templeton is an asset manager with a forward P/E of 10.0x and strong growth, but the price is above the analyst target, cash conversion is deeply negative and a yield-trap warning is flagged.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 10.0x with a PEG of 0.39 and a growth score of 8.1, an attractive valuation relative to growth. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below 13x while growth holds over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAsset manager earnings follow market levels, so a market decline could erase the growth the low multiple relies on. | ||
The price of $31.64 is 2.5% above the $30.85 analyst target, leaving no consensus upside against 5.2% downside to the stop level. Warnings | Analyst targets are raised above $35 within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith the price already above target, the reward-to-risk is negative and the stock offers little margin for a pullback. | ||
Earnings quality is flagged as a red flag, with free cash flow at -368% of net income, despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive, above 0% of net income, over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterNegative cash flow of this size could reflect investments in funds rather than operating weakness, but it still limits what can be paid out. | ||
The income profile carries a yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend is maintained over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterIf cash flow stays negative, the dividend may be cut, which would likely push the price lower. | ||
Momentum is 7.0 with rising on-balance volume and the price above its 200-day average, though beta is high at 1.58. Momentum breakdown | Price stays above the 200-day moving average over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA beta of 1.58 means the stock would fall further than the market in a downturn. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 10.0x with a PEG of 0.39 and a growth score of 8.1, an attractive valuation relative to growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below 13x while growth holds over 12 months.
CounterAsset manager earnings follow market levels, so a market decline could erase the growth the low multiple relies on.
The price of $31.64 is 2.5% above the $30.85 analyst target, leaving no consensus upside against 5.2% downside to the stop level.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised above $35 within 12 months.
CounterWith the price already above target, the reward-to-risk is negative and the stock offers little margin for a pullback.
Earnings quality is flagged as a red flag, with free cash flow at -368% of net income, despite a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive, above 0% of net income, over 12 months.
CounterNegative cash flow of this size could reflect investments in funds rather than operating weakness, but it still limits what can be paid out.
The income profile carries a yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend is maintained over the next 12 months.
CounterIf cash flow stays negative, the dividend may be cut, which would likely push the price lower.
Momentum is 7.0 with rising on-balance volume and the price above its 200-day average, though beta is high at 1.58.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price stays above the 200-day moving average over 12 months.
CounterA beta of 1.58 means the stock would fall further than the market in a downturn.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.6 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 3.5 |
| Op margin | 5.2 |
| Net margin | 4.4 |
| Current ratio | 7.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -368% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.7 |
Insider
4.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.0 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 2.9 |
| growth rank | 7.4 |
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.0 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 6.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.0 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 4.7 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
| news risk | 3.0 |
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 2.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 2 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULTPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:2d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.79
Upside
-8.7%
Downside
10.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 68, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.60>1.3
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.1; weakest: Technical at 3.5. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.1, Value at 7.4, and Momentum at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 3.5, Insider at 4.0, and Quality at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.79 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Growth
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x from the current 10.0x.
- P2Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $29.98 stop level, a drop of more than 5% from $31.64.
- P3Weak Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income stays below -200% for 2 more quarters (currently -368%).
- P4Yield Trap Warning
Trip ifDividend is cut by more than 10% from the current payout.
- P5Positive Momentum High Beta
Trip ifPrice falls below its 200-day moving average by more than 5%.