Value
4.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 36.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.38
BE · Why this verdict
Why Bloom Energy (BE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bloom Energy is growing revenue 138% YoY with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak and 26.2% upside to the analyst target, but it trades at 38.3x forward earnings with sole-supplier concentration and heavy insider selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is growing 138% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from $513.3M to $1.23B over the past year. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stays above $1.2B and keeps growing above 50% YoY over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterComparisons will get harder as the base grows, and a sharp slowdown would be punished at the current 38.3x forward P/E. | ||
EPS beat estimates in all 4 recent quarters, with an average surprise of about 106% and a 242% beat in April 2026. Earnings | EPS beats consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterBeats against low estimates may be easy, and a first miss could trigger a sharp reaction in a stock with 104% implied volatility. | ||
Return on equity is an excellent 40% and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, but free cash flow is about 0% of net income. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns clearly positive, above 10% of net income, over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth is consuming cash, and debt-to-equity of 1.4 triggers a leverage penalty of -0.5. | ||
The company relies on sole suppliers, and the risk score shows 1 HIGH and 1 MED concentration risk, which could constrain production growth. Bear case | Supply is sufficient to meet demand with no disruption over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA disruption at a single supplier could delay deliveries and break the growth trajectory. | ||
Insiders sold about $21.8M of stock in 90 days across 11 sells with no buys, and the stock is 42% off its 52-week high. Insider | Insider selling slows and the price recovers above the 200-day average over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe price is below the 200-day average but that average still rises 11.3% per 30 days, so selling may reflect profit-taking after a big run. | ||
Revenue is growing 138% YoY, with quarterly revenue rising from $513.3M to $1.23B over the past year.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stays above $1.2B and keeps growing above 50% YoY over 12 months.
CounterComparisons will get harder as the base grows, and a sharp slowdown would be punished at the current 38.3x forward P/E.
EPS beat estimates in all 4 recent quarters, with an average surprise of about 106% and a 242% beat in April 2026.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterBeats against low estimates may be easy, and a first miss could trigger a sharp reaction in a stock with 104% implied volatility.
Return on equity is an excellent 40% and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, but free cash flow is about 0% of net income.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns clearly positive, above 10% of net income, over 12 months.
CounterGrowth is consuming cash, and debt-to-equity of 1.4 triggers a leverage penalty of -0.5.
The company relies on sole suppliers, and the risk score shows 1 HIGH and 1 MED concentration risk, which could constrain production growth.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Supply is sufficient to meet demand with no disruption over 12 months.
CounterA disruption at a single supplier could delay deliveries and break the growth trajectory.
Insiders sold about $21.8M of stock in 90 days across 11 sells with no buys, and the stock is 42% off its 52-week high.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling slows and the price recovers above the 200-day average over 12 months.
CounterThe price is below the 200-day average but that average still rises 11.3% per 30 days, so selling may reflect profit-taking after a big run.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 5.0 |
| Gross margin | 2.4 |
| Op margin | 7.4 |
| Net margin | 6.8 |
| Current ratio | 9.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 40%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -0% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 138% YoY
Momentum
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 2.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+10.7%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 33%
Insider
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $18,697,058 (0.032% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.6 |
| quality rank | 8.0 |
| growth rank | 8.8 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.7 |
| support resistance | 7.7 |
| 52w position | 2.2 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (7.2%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 9.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.2 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 4.2 |
- ▸High IV: 102%
- ▸Above max pain $95
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:93d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.32
Upside
+19.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 3.62>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5, ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.32 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.6, and Sentiment at 7.1; the weakest are Momentum at 2.1, Insider at 3.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.32 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Explosive Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 40% YoY from the current 138%.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3High Roe Weak Cash Flow
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 20% from the current 40%.
- P4Sole Supplier Concentration
Trip ifSole-supplier dependence causes quarterly revenue to fall below $1.0B from $1.23B.
- P5Insider Selling Drawdown
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $50M over a rolling 90 days.