Value
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.6 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 6.6 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.8x
- ▸PEG: 1.11
BDX · Why this verdict
Why Becton, Dickinson and (BDX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Four consecutive quarters of earnings beats with an average positive surprise of roughly 4.4% demonstrate steady execution above analyst models, suggesting guidance discipline is intact across the business. Earnings | The beat streak extends to six or more quarters and average EPS surprises remain above 3% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWith an average surprise of only 4.4%, the beat cushion is modest; given weak growth as a noted headwind, a single quarter of cost pressure or revenue softness is sufficient to break the streak and reprice the stock lower. | ||
At 10.9 times forward earnings with a PEG ratio of 1.11, the stock screens as attractively valued for a medical instruments and supplies franchise, with analyst consensus implying roughly 24% upside from current levels. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E holds below 15 times over the next 12 months as earnings estimates hold or rise, sustaining the value case. | →Stable |
| CounterA P/E below 11 times in this sector often reflects persistent growth concerns; weak growth as a flagged bear case suggests the discount may persist until a clear revenue acceleration catalyst emerges. | ||
Free cash flow is converting at 398% of net income — an exceptional level — indicating that the business generates substantially more cash than its reported earnings suggest, providing a strong cushion for capital returns and debt management. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of net income remains above 200% for the next 4 quarters, confirming that the cash generation advantage is durable rather than a one-period anomaly. | →Stable |
| CounterFCF materially exceeding net income can reflect unusual items such as asset disposals or favorable working capital timing; if these reverse, the stated conversion advantage would shrink significantly in a short period. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average, though the moving average itself is still rising at roughly 0.2% per month — indicating a pullback within a longer-term uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown, leaving the direction of resolution uncertain. Momentum breakdown | Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and holds above it for 20 consecutive sessions within the next 6 months, confirming the pullback was temporary. | →Stable |
| CounterA stock below its 200-day MA with volume distribution (falling OBV) and a momentum gate failure suggests selling pressure may persist long enough to inflict additional downside before any recovery materializes. | ||
Four consecutive quarters of earnings beats with an average positive surprise of roughly 4.4% demonstrate steady execution above analyst models, suggesting guidance discipline is intact across the business.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak extends to six or more quarters and average EPS surprises remain above 3% over the next 12 months.
CounterWith an average surprise of only 4.4%, the beat cushion is modest; given weak growth as a noted headwind, a single quarter of cost pressure or revenue softness is sufficient to break the streak and reprice the stock lower.
At 10.9 times forward earnings with a PEG ratio of 1.11, the stock screens as attractively valued for a medical instruments and supplies franchise, with analyst consensus implying roughly 24% upside from current levels.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E holds below 15 times over the next 12 months as earnings estimates hold or rise, sustaining the value case.
CounterA P/E below 11 times in this sector often reflects persistent growth concerns; weak growth as a flagged bear case suggests the discount may persist until a clear revenue acceleration catalyst emerges.
Free cash flow is converting at 398% of net income — an exceptional level — indicating that the business generates substantially more cash than its reported earnings suggest, providing a strong cushion for capital returns and debt management.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of net income remains above 200% for the next 4 quarters, confirming that the cash generation advantage is durable rather than a one-period anomaly.
CounterFCF materially exceeding net income can reflect unusual items such as asset disposals or favorable working capital timing; if these reverse, the stated conversion advantage would shrink significantly in a short period.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average, though the moving average itself is still rising at roughly 0.2% per month — indicating a pullback within a longer-term uptrend rather than a confirmed breakdown, leaving the direction of resolution uncertain.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and holds above it for 20 consecutive sessions within the next 6 months, confirming the pullback was temporary.
CounterA stock below its 200-day MA with volume distribution (falling OBV) and a momentum gate failure suggests selling pressure may persist long enough to inflict additional downside before any recovery materializes.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Becton Dickinson has posted four consecutive earnings beats and trades at 10.9 times forward earnings with exceptional free cash flow conversion at 398% of net income, offering roughly 8% upside to the analyst consensus target; a momentum gate failure with the stock below its 200-day moving average and a sole-source supplier concentration risk are the primary obstacles to a more constructive stance.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.2 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 5.4 |
| Op margin | 5.9 |
| Net margin | 2.6 |
| Current ratio | 3.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 398% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.7 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
| erm sentiment | 4.5 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $765,120 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.2 |
| quality rank | 5.9 |
| growth rank | 2.0 |
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.5 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 5.7 |
| put call | 2.5 |
| implied vol | 6.4 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.62
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.7 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 266.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.19
Upside
-2.2%
Downside
11.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.19 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8, Value at 6.5, and Sentiment at 6.3; the weakest are Technical at 3.1, Peer rank at 3.8, and Growth at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Execution Four Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation Forward Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E expands above 18x from the current 10.9 times as earnings estimates are revised downward.
- P3Exceptional Free Cash Flow Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of net income falls below 100% for 2 consecutive quarters from the current 398%.
- P4Price Momentum Below 200ma Pullback
Trip if200-day moving average slope turns negative (below 0% from the current +0.2%/30d) and price remains below the 200-day moving average for 30 consecutive calendar days.