Value
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.0 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.08
- ▸Attractively valued
BCO · Why this verdict
Why Brinks Company (The) (BCO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Brink's offers cheap valuation (forward P/E 10.2x), a 46% return on equity and 20% upside to the analyst target, but it faces a confirmed downtrend, 21% short interest and concentration in cash management operations abroad.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 10.2x with a PEG of 0.08, and the $123.25 analyst target is 20.0% above the $102.71 price. Valuation breakdown | Price moves toward the $123.25 analyst target over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLight analyst coverage dampens the signal, and the price is in a confirmed downtrend. | ||
Return on equity is 46% and free cash flow is 216% of net income, showing strong cash conversion despite no competitive moat. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh ROE can reflect a thin equity base from leverage, and the business has no moat. | ||
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters (the fourth was in line) with an average surprise of about 5%; earnings are due in 3 days. Earnings | EPS meets or beats consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBeats are small (2.7% to 13%), so a modest miss could drive a sharp reaction given 21% short interest. | ||
Cash and valuables management is 72.0% of the business and operations outside the United States are 69.0%, concentrating exposure in one product and in foreign markets. Bear case | Product and geographic mix stay stable with no loss of major contracts over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA 69.0% foreign mix exposes results to currency and country risks that the business cannot diversify away. | ||
The price is below its 200-day average, which slopes down 1.8% per 30 days, with falling on-balance volume and short interest of 21%. Momentum breakdown | Price recovers above the 200-day moving average within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA momentum score of 1.7 and a put/call ratio of 1.37 show sellers and bearish option positioning still in control. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 10.2x with a PEG of 0.08, and the $123.25 analyst target is 20.0% above the $102.71 price.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $123.25 analyst target over 12 months.
CounterLight analyst coverage dampens the signal, and the price is in a confirmed downtrend.
Return on equity is 46% and free cash flow is 216% of net income, showing strong cash conversion despite no competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above 100% of net income over 12 months.
CounterHigh ROE can reflect a thin equity base from leverage, and the business has no moat.
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters (the fourth was in line) with an average surprise of about 5%; earnings are due in 3 days.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterBeats are small (2.7% to 13%), so a modest miss could drive a sharp reaction given 21% short interest.
Cash and valuables management is 72.0% of the business and operations outside the United States are 69.0%, concentrating exposure in one product and in foreign markets.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Product and geographic mix stay stable with no loss of major contracts over 12 months.
CounterA 69.0% foreign mix exposes results to currency and country risks that the business cannot diversify away.
The price is below its 200-day average, which slopes down 1.8% per 30 days, with falling on-balance volume and short interest of 21%.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price recovers above the 200-day moving average within 12 months.
CounterA momentum score of 1.7 and a put/call ratio of 1.37 show sellers and bearish option positioning still in control.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 3.3 |
| Gross margin | 1.3 |
| Op margin | 3.8 |
| Net margin | 1.7 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 46%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 216% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 2.8 |
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.8 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 35%
Insider
6.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 2.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.4 |
| support resistance | 4.4 |
| 52w position | 5.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 3.5 |
| put call | 4.0 |
| implied vol | 3.4 |
| beta | 7.4 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸High short interest: 21%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings today
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:RISK_FLOORPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.9>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.77
Upside
+14.9%
Downside
8.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the EARNINGS_PROXIMITY gate's 0d<=7d outcome against Value at 7.9 and asymmetric R:R of 1.77.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.9, Sentiment at 6.9, and Insider at 6.3; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.6, Peer rank at 3.2, and Growth at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.77 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation Analyst Upside
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 10.2x.
- P2High Roe Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 80% of net income from the current 216%.
- P3Steady Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Product Geographic Concentration
Trip ifCash and valuables management exceeds 80% of the business from 72.0%.
- P5Downtrend Heavy Short Interest
Trip ifPrice falls below the $95.52 stop level, a drop of more than 7% from $102.71.