Value
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.9 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
- ▸Attractively valued
BCC · Why this verdict
Why Boise Cascade, L.L.C. (BCC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Boise Cascade has a strong earnings beat record and a sound Piotroski score, but the price is already at the analyst target, cash conversion is weak and earnings depend on one segment and one product line.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The price of $78.83 is within 0.4% of the $79.17 analyst target, leaving almost no upside against 8.6% downside to the stop level. Warnings | Analyst targets are raised above $88 after the November 2 earnings report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith a put/call ratio of 3.90, options traders are positioned for downside. | ||
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 36% and a 109% beat in the February 2026 quarter; earnings are due in 1 day. Earnings | EPS meets or beats consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe November 2025 quarter missed by 15.7%, and building-product earnings swing with housing demand. | ||
The BMD segment is 71.0% of the business and engineered wood products are 60.0%, so results depend on a narrow base. Bear case | Segment mix stays stable with no single segment above 75% of sales. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterConcentration in building materials distribution leaves earnings exposed to a single housing and construction cycle. | ||
Earnings quality is flagged as a red flag, with free cash flow only 41% of net income, even though the Piotroski F-Score is a strong 8/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion rises above 70% of net income over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterLow cash conversion may be temporary working-capital build, but persistent weakness would undermine reported earnings. | ||
The stock has a PEG of 0.21 and momentum of 7.4 with rising on-balance volume, above its 200-day average. Valuation breakdown | Price stays above the 200-day moving average over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA forward P/E of 15.4x is not cheap, and the news sentiment is negative at -0.50. | ||
The price of $78.83 is within 0.4% of the $79.17 analyst target, leaving almost no upside against 8.6% downside to the stop level.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are raised above $88 after the November 2 earnings report.
CounterWith a put/call ratio of 3.90, options traders are positioned for downside.
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 36% and a 109% beat in the February 2026 quarter; earnings are due in 1 day.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS meets or beats consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe November 2025 quarter missed by 15.7%, and building-product earnings swing with housing demand.
The BMD segment is 71.0% of the business and engineered wood products are 60.0%, so results depend on a narrow base.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Segment mix stays stable with no single segment above 75% of sales.
CounterConcentration in building materials distribution leaves earnings exposed to a single housing and construction cycle.
Earnings quality is flagged as a red flag, with free cash flow only 41% of net income, even though the Piotroski F-Score is a strong 8/9.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion rises above 70% of net income over 12 months.
CounterLow cash conversion may be temporary working-capital build, but persistent weakness would undermine reported earnings.
The stock has a PEG of 0.21 and momentum of 7.4 with rising on-balance volume, above its 200-day average.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price stays above the 200-day moving average over the next 12 months.
CounterA forward P/E of 15.4x is not cheap, and the news sentiment is negative at -0.50.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.9 |
| ROA | 2.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.2 |
| Net margin | 0.9 |
| Current ratio | 9.5 |
| FCF quality | 5.3 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 69% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 9.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.8 |
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.5 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $99,250 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.9 |
| support resistance | 4.3 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.5 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 2.4 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.9 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 9.67
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.2% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:110d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.0>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.22
Upside
+1.8%
Downside
8.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 55, MACD bullish
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=7.7
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.2<1.5@spot outcome against Value at 7.7 and asymmetric R:R of 0.22.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.7, Growth at 7.2, and Catalyst at 7.0; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.8, Insider at 3.8, and Quality at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.22 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Segment Product Concentration
Trip ifBMD segment share of the business exceeds 80% from 71.0%.
- P3Weak Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 30% from the current 41%.
- P4Price At Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $74.31 stop level, a drop of more than 5.7% from $78.83.
- P5Valuation And Momentum
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 20x from the current 15.4x.