Value
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.9 |
| P/S | 5.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.2 |
| PEG | 6.1 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 34.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.23
BB · Why this verdict
Why BlackBerry (BB) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BlackBerry is a high-quality software business with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak, 26% growth and a 9/9 Piotroski F-Score, but at $8.42 only 1.3% upside to the analyst target remains and momentum is weak at 3.6/10.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is high with 172% FCF/NI cash conversion, a wide economic moat, a Rule of 40 reading of 49 and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI should stay above 100% and the Rule of 40 above 40 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterROE and ROA components are only 3.5 and 3.4, so returns on capital are modest relative to the headline quality score. | ||
Product concentration in QNX automotive is flagged as a risk, with 1 HIGH and 1 MED concentration risks and high implied volatility of 90%. Risk breakdown | QNX automotive share of revenue should not rise above current levels as the product base diversifies. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterQNX is an embedded software leader, so concentration reflects strength in a growing market rather than dependence on a weak line. | ||
BlackBerry beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, including $0.07 against $0.04 expected in September 2026, a 75% surprise. Bull case | EPS should keep beating estimates over the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterSurprise percentages are large because EPS estimates are only pennies, so small dollar beats overstate earnings power. | ||
Upside to the $8.53 analyst target is only 1.3% against 14.4% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.09 at $8.42. Bear case | Price should pull back toward the $8.00 entry level or the analyst target should rise within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGrowth of 26% could drive upward target revisions, and price is above the 200-day average. | ||
Forward P/E is 35.7x with a PEG of 1.23, which is rich for the earnings level and flagged as a key risk. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth should compress forward P/E below 25x over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterStrong 26% growth with high margins partly justifies a premium multiple. | ||
Quality is high with 172% FCF/NI cash conversion, a wide economic moat, a Rule of 40 reading of 49 and a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI should stay above 100% and the Rule of 40 above 40 over the next 12 months.
CounterROE and ROA components are only 3.5 and 3.4, so returns on capital are modest relative to the headline quality score.
Product concentration in QNX automotive is flagged as a risk, with 1 HIGH and 1 MED concentration risks and high implied volatility of 90%.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- QNX automotive share of revenue should not rise above current levels as the product base diversifies.
CounterQNX is an embedded software leader, so concentration reflects strength in a growing market rather than dependence on a weak line.
BlackBerry beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, including $0.07 against $0.04 expected in September 2026, a 75% surprise.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- EPS should keep beating estimates over the next 4 quarters.
CounterSurprise percentages are large because EPS estimates are only pennies, so small dollar beats overstate earnings power.
Upside to the $8.53 analyst target is only 1.3% against 14.4% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.09 at $8.42.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Price should pull back toward the $8.00 entry level or the analyst target should rise within 12 months.
CounterGrowth of 26% could drive upward target revisions, and price is above the 200-day average.
Forward P/E is 35.7x with a PEG of 1.23, which is rich for the earnings level and flagged as a key risk.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should compress forward P/E below 25x over the next 12 months.
CounterStrong 26% growth with high margins partly justifies a premium multiple.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.5 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 9.1 |
| Net margin | 6.5 |
| Current ratio | 8.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 8.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 172% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 49 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
9.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 26% YoY
Momentum
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.7 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $3,481,255 (0.074% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.5 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 7.1 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.8 |
| support resistance | 8.6 |
| 52w position | 2.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 9.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.9 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.93
- ▸High IV: 81%
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.23, quality 7.7/10, growth 9.5/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:44d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.28
Upside
+4.1%
Downside
14.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (7.7) with weak momentum (2.6)
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 7.7 and growth 9.5 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 0.28 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.5, Quality at 7.7, and Catalyst at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 2.6, Value at 3.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.28 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Cash Conversion
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 of 9 from current 9.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $7.72 stop, more than 8% under the current $8.42.
- P4Rich Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 45x from current 35.7x.
- P5Qnx Automotive Concentration
Trip ifYear-over-year growth falls below 10% from current 26%.