Value
7.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 8.2 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.80
- ▸Attractively valued
BANR · Why this verdict
Why Banner (BANR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Banner Corporation is attractively valued (forward P/E 10.4x, PEG 0.77) with strong margins and a breakout setup, but the price is 4.3% above the analyst target and EPS missed estimates in the last 2 quarters.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Margins are strong at 30% and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, but there is no competitive moat and ROE and ROA components score only 3.3 and 0.8. Quality breakdown | ROE component should rise above 5.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWithout a moat, regional bank margins are exposed to deposit-cost competition and can compress quickly. | ||
Forward P/E of 10.4x and a PEG of 0.77 mark Banner as attractively valued for a regional bank. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 12x while earnings grow over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings growth scores only 4.7 and growth rank is 2.4 among peers, so the low multiple may fairly reflect slow growth. | ||
The price of $69.21 is above the $66.27 analyst target, a -4.3% upside, against 5.3% downside to the stop, leaving no reward margin. Upside pct | Analyst targets should be revised above $72 or the price should pull back toward the target within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA golden cross and positive news sentiment could trigger target upgrades that justify the premium to the current target. | ||
EPS missed in the last 2 quarters ($1.51 versus $1.57 in October 2026 and $1.44 versus $1.47 in July 2026), after two beats earlier in 2026. Bear case | EPS should meet or beat estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe misses are small (3.6% and 2.0%) and sit alongside a 15.8% beat in April 2026, so the trend may be noise. | ||
The setup is a breakout with a golden cross, price above all moving averages, RSI 64 and bullish MACD, though falling OBV shows volume distribution. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above the 200-day average with OBV turning up over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling OBV against a rising price is a classic divergence that often precedes a pullback. | ||
Margins are strong at 30% and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, but there is no competitive moat and ROE and ROA components score only 3.3 and 0.8.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE component should rise above 5.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterWithout a moat, regional bank margins are exposed to deposit-cost competition and can compress quickly.
Forward P/E of 10.4x and a PEG of 0.77 mark Banner as attractively valued for a regional bank.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 12x while earnings grow over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings growth scores only 4.7 and growth rank is 2.4 among peers, so the low multiple may fairly reflect slow growth.
The price of $69.21 is above the $66.27 analyst target, a -4.3% upside, against 5.3% downside to the stop, leaving no reward margin.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be revised above $72 or the price should pull back toward the target within 12 months.
CounterA golden cross and positive news sentiment could trigger target upgrades that justify the premium to the current target.
EPS missed in the last 2 quarters ($1.51 versus $1.57 in October 2026 and $1.44 versus $1.47 in July 2026), after two beats earlier in 2026.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
CounterThe misses are small (3.6% and 2.0%) and sit alongside a 15.8% beat in April 2026, so the trend may be noise.
The setup is a breakout with a golden cross, price above all moving averages, RSI 64 and bullish MACD, though falling OBV shows volume distribution.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above the 200-day average with OBV turning up over the next 12 months.
CounterFalling OBV against a rising price is a classic divergence that often precedes a pullback.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.3 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.5 |
| EPS growth | 4.7 |
Momentum
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 6.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.6 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (6.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 3.7 |
| growth rank | 2.4 |
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.4 |
| days to cover | 4.8 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.7 |
| beta | 8.1 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.6 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:78d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.86
Upside
-6.3%
Downside
7.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.3>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 7.6; weakest: Peer rank at 4.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.9, and Momentum at 6.3; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.0, Technical at 4.1, and Growth at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.86 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Regional Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 14x from current 10.4x.
- P2Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds the analyst target by more than 10% from current 4.3%.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in at least 2 more consecutive quarters.
- P4Strong Margins No Moat
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 of 9 from current 7.
- P5Breakout Above All Averages
Trip ifPrice falls below the $66.07 stop, more than 4.5% under the current $69.21.