Value
6.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.4 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
BAK · Why this verdict
Why Braskem (BAK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Braskem sits outside the investable universe by market capitalization at $0.84 billion — below the $1 billion minimum threshold — and carries cash-burning operations with free cash flow negative at 10% of revenue, a 20% revenue decline, and a Piotroski financial health score of only 3 out of 9; despite a sharp 44% upward revision to analyst estimates over the last month, the fundamental setup does not support investment.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
With a market capitalization of $0.84 billion, the company falls below the $1 billion minimum investable threshold, excluding it from most institutional mandates and reducing the pool of potential buyers that could sustain price support. Warnings | Market capitalization rises above $1.5 billion for 2 consecutive months before the size constraint is meaningfully resolved. | — |
| CounterA sub-$1 billion market cap can also signal a deep-value recovery opportunity where re-entry into the investable universe triggers a significant institutional re-rating event for investors willing to tolerate the illiquidity. | ||
The company is burning cash at a rate equal to 10% of revenue, carries a Piotroski financial health score of only 3 out of 9, and has been assessed as having no competitive moat — a combination signaling acute fundamental distress rather than a temporary cyclical trough. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow turns positive and the Piotroski score improves above 5 out of 9 for 2 consecutive quarters before the quality picture can be reassessed. | — |
| CounterAnalyst estimates have been revised upward by 44% in the last 30 days, which — if grounded in real cost reduction or commodity price recovery — could move the company toward cash generation faster than the current score implies. | ||
Revenue has contracted 20% year-over-year and the company missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 3 reported quarters — including a 239% miss below expectations in the most recent quarter — making it difficult to underwrite a near-term earnings recovery with confidence. Earnings | Revenue growth turns positive year-over-year and EPS comes within 10% of consensus estimates for 2 consecutive quarters before the fundamental thesis can be revisited. | — |
| CounterWith RSI at deeply oversold levels and on-balance volume rising, a technical re-rating is possible even before fundamentals recover, potentially producing a sharp short-covering bounce that precedes the fundamental turn. | ||
A 44% upward revision to analyst estimates over the last 30 days introduces a speculative element — if the revision cycle has legs, it may attract momentum buyers even before underlying fundamentals improve meaningfully. Catalyst breakdown | Analyst estimates continue rising for at least 2 more consecutive months and the EPS revision trend produces a beat rather than a miss in the next reported quarter, validating the revision cycle. | — |
| CounterWith an average EPS surprise of negative 25% over the last four quarters and negative news sentiment, there is a meaningful probability that the revision cycle overshoots the underlying reality and is followed by another material miss, trapping speculative buyers who acted on the estimate momentum. | ||
With a market capitalization of $0.84 billion, the company falls below the $1 billion minimum investable threshold, excluding it from most institutional mandates and reducing the pool of potential buyers that could sustain price support.
—Warnings
- Expectation
- Market capitalization rises above $1.5 billion for 2 consecutive months before the size constraint is meaningfully resolved.
CounterA sub-$1 billion market cap can also signal a deep-value recovery opportunity where re-entry into the investable universe triggers a significant institutional re-rating event for investors willing to tolerate the illiquidity.
The company is burning cash at a rate equal to 10% of revenue, carries a Piotroski financial health score of only 3 out of 9, and has been assessed as having no competitive moat — a combination signaling acute fundamental distress rather than a temporary cyclical trough.
—Quality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow turns positive and the Piotroski score improves above 5 out of 9 for 2 consecutive quarters before the quality picture can be reassessed.
CounterAnalyst estimates have been revised upward by 44% in the last 30 days, which — if grounded in real cost reduction or commodity price recovery — could move the company toward cash generation faster than the current score implies.
Revenue has contracted 20% year-over-year and the company missed earnings estimates in 2 of the last 3 reported quarters — including a 239% miss below expectations in the most recent quarter — making it difficult to underwrite a near-term earnings recovery with confidence.
—Earnings
- Expectation
- Revenue growth turns positive year-over-year and EPS comes within 10% of consensus estimates for 2 consecutive quarters before the fundamental thesis can be revisited.
CounterWith RSI at deeply oversold levels and on-balance volume rising, a technical re-rating is possible even before fundamentals recover, potentially producing a sharp short-covering bounce that precedes the fundamental turn.
A 44% upward revision to analyst estimates over the last 30 days introduces a speculative element — if the revision cycle has legs, it may attract momentum buyers even before underlying fundamentals improve meaningfully.
—Catalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst estimates continue rising for at least 2 more consecutive months and the EPS revision trend produces a beat rather than a miss in the next reported quarter, validating the revision cycle.
CounterWith an average EPS surprise of negative 25% over the last four quarters and negative news sentiment, there is a meaningful probability that the revision cycle overshoots the underlying reality and is followed by another material miss, trapping speculative buyers who acted on the estimate momentum.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 2.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 6.9 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.1 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -11% of revenue
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
7.9/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.9 |
- ▸Strong growth: 22% YoY
Momentum
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 6.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.3 |
| quality rank | 2.1 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.3 |
| support resistance | 7.2 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 3.0 |
- ▸Extreme gap up (13.2%) - may pull back
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 9.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 9.0 |
Catalyst
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.6 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $364M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.6>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:37d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.18
Upside
+2.7%
Downside
14.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -70% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.2<1.5@spot outcome against Growth at 7.9 and asymmetric R:R of 0.18.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.9, Value at 6.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.5; the weakest are Quality at 2.8, Catalyst at 3.9, and Technical at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.18 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Sub Investable Market Cap Barrier
Trip ifMarket capitalization exceeds $1.5 billion for 2 consecutive months, clearing the minimum investable threshold with margin.
- P2Cash Burning Deteriorating Quality
Trip ifFree cash flow rises above $0 for 2 consecutive quarters, removing the cash-burn concern.
- P3Revenue Contraction Unreliable Earnings
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds 5% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the current 20% contraction.
- P4Estimate Revision Cycle Speculative Signal
Trip ifEPS comes in within 5% above consensus estimates for 2 consecutive quarters, confirming the revision cycle has translated into actual earnings delivery.