Value
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.1 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 80.1x
BA · Why this verdict
Why Boeing Company (The) (BA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Boeing has 24.6% upside to the analyst target at $171.55, but weak quality (2.6/10, Piotroski 3/9), a forward P/E of 68.4x, repeated earnings misses and a death-cross downtrend leave the turnaround unproven.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 2.6/10 with a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, no competitive moat and an earnings-quality warning of 62% FCF/NI, and the company has negative free cash flow. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score should recover above 5 and free cash flow should turn positive within 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCurrent ratio and net margin components are mid-range (4.4 and 4.0), and the cash burn may be a temporary effect of production ramp-up rather than permanent impairment. | ||
Momentum is 1.6/10 with a death cross, the price below all moving averages, a 200-day slope of -1.9% per 30 days and falling OBV showing volume distribution. Chart pattern detection | Price should reclaim the 200-day average and momentum should rise above 4.5 over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRSI is already near 31 and Bollinger scores 9.2, so the selloff may be exhausted and due for a relief rally. | ||
Analysts see 24.6% upside to a $213.68 target (reward-to-risk of 3.64), yet forward P/E is 68.4x against trailing 18x, so the recovery in earnings is already priced as heavily improving. Upside pct | Forward earnings should be delivered so forward P/E compresses below 40x within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA forward P/E far above trailing means estimates are being cut or earnings are volatile, so the target may prove too optimistic. | ||
Boeing missed EPS in the last 2 quarters (-0.34 actual vs -0.20 expected in October 2026 and -0.76 vs -0.31 in July 2026) after beating in the 2 prior quarters. Last 4 quarters | EPS should beat estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters as losses narrow. | →Stable |
| CounterThe earnings history is dominated by one-off gains and charges, and a 2525% surprise in January 2026 shows how noisy the series is. | ||
Concentration risk is high, with 60.0% of commercial-airplane revenue from outside the U.S. and sole-source supplier components, graded 2 HIGH and 3 MED risks in the 10-K. Bear case | Non-U.S. revenue share and sole-source exposure should not rise over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGlobal order books provide a diversified demand base, and sole-source supply is common in aerospace so it may not translate to disruption. | ||
Quality scores 2.6/10 with a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, no competitive moat and an earnings-quality warning of 62% FCF/NI, and the company has negative free cash flow.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score should recover above 5 and free cash flow should turn positive within 12 months.
CounterCurrent ratio and net margin components are mid-range (4.4 and 4.0), and the cash burn may be a temporary effect of production ramp-up rather than permanent impairment.
Momentum is 1.6/10 with a death cross, the price below all moving averages, a 200-day slope of -1.9% per 30 days and falling OBV showing volume distribution.
↓DeterioratingChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day average and momentum should rise above 4.5 over 12 months.
CounterRSI is already near 31 and Bollinger scores 9.2, so the selloff may be exhausted and due for a relief rally.
Analysts see 24.6% upside to a $213.68 target (reward-to-risk of 3.64), yet forward P/E is 68.4x against trailing 18x, so the recovery in earnings is already priced as heavily improving.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Forward earnings should be delivered so forward P/E compresses below 40x within 12 months.
CounterA forward P/E far above trailing means estimates are being cut or earnings are volatile, so the target may prove too optimistic.
Boeing missed EPS in the last 2 quarters (-0.34 actual vs -0.20 expected in October 2026 and -0.76 vs -0.31 in July 2026) after beating in the 2 prior quarters.
→StableLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS should beat estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters as losses narrow.
CounterThe earnings history is dominated by one-off gains and charges, and a 2525% surprise in January 2026 shows how noisy the series is.
Concentration risk is high, with 60.0% of commercial-airplane revenue from outside the U.S. and sole-source supplier components, graded 2 HIGH and 3 MED risks in the 10-K.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Non-U.S. revenue share and sole-source exposure should not rise over the next 12 months.
CounterGlobal order books provide a diversified demand base, and sole-source supply is common in aerospace so it may not translate to disruption.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.1 |
| Net margin | 4.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.4 |
| FCF quality | 4.8 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 62% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
3.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.5 |
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.3 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.46 (n=4)
- ▸Analyst upside: 32%
Insider
6.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.5 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.7 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 0.3 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.8 |
| support resistance | 5.8 |
| 52w position | 3.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 4.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 6.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 10.54
- ▸Above max pain $85
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 3 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.75
Upside
+18.7%
Downside
6.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.33>1.3
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.3<4.5 outcome against Sentiment at 8.4 and asymmetric R:R of 2.75.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 8.4, Catalyst at 6.3, and Insider at 6.2; the weakest are Quality at 2.6, Momentum at 3.3, and Growth at 3.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.75 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Weak Quality No Moat
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score stays below 4 of 9 for 4 consecutive quarters.
- P2Downtrend Death Cross
Trip ifPrice falls below the $160.06 stop, more than 6.7% under the current $171.55.
- P3Analyst Upside Vs Stretched Forward Pe
Trip ifForward P/E stays above 60x from current 68.4x after 2 more quarters.
- P4Earnings Misses Recent Quarters
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P5Customer And Supplier Concentration
Trip ifNon-U.S. share of commercial-airplane revenue exceeds 65% from current 60.0%.