Value
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.2 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.44
AZZ · Why this verdict
Why AZZ (AZZ) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AZZ is a small-cap industrial with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak, attractive valuation and strong growth, but only 5.0% upside to the analyst target limits the case for adding at $134.44.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
AZZ beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 7.6% and the latest quarter at $2.00 versus $1.84 expected. Bull case | EPS should keep beating estimates by an average of at least 3% over the next 4 quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterBeats can reflect conservative estimates; the Oct 2025 quarter was a miss and guidance remains unknown, so the streak may not persist. | ||
Forward P/E of 17.0x with a PEG of 0.40 reflects an attractively valued stock relative to earnings growth. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth should sustain a PEG below 1.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings growth scored 10/10 off a depressed base and may normalize, which would push the PEG up and make the multiple look full. | ||
Upside to the analyst target is only 5.0% against 6.9% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.72, which argues against adding to the position. Bear case | Either a pullback toward the stop region or a higher analyst target should lift upside above 10% over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the $141.20 target may be stale, and the stock could re-rate on continued beats. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 supports quality, and the price is below the 200-day average while that average is still rising 2.9% per 30 days, a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day average while its slope stays positive over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMomentum is only 4.9 with weak volume, and a break lower could turn the pullback into a confirmed downtrend. | ||
Insiders sold $1,049,708 (0.026% of market cap) over 90 days with no buys, a small but bearish signal alongside an officer departure/appointment filing. Insider breakdown | Insider selling should stay below 0.05% of market cap with no further officer departures. | →Stable |
| CounterThe amount is immaterial relative to market cap, so the signal likely reflects routine diversification rather than concern. | ||
AZZ beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of 7.6% and the latest quarter at $2.00 versus $1.84 expected.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- EPS should keep beating estimates by an average of at least 3% over the next 4 quarters.
CounterBeats can reflect conservative estimates; the Oct 2025 quarter was a miss and guidance remains unknown, so the streak may not persist.
Forward P/E of 17.0x with a PEG of 0.40 reflects an attractively valued stock relative to earnings growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should sustain a PEG below 1.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings growth scored 10/10 off a depressed base and may normalize, which would push the PEG up and make the multiple look full.
Upside to the analyst target is only 5.0% against 6.9% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 0.72, which argues against adding to the position.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Either a pullback toward the stop region or a higher analyst target should lift upside above 10% over 12 months.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light, so the $141.20 target may be stale, and the stock could re-rate on continued beats.
A Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 supports quality, and the price is below the 200-day average while that average is still rising 2.9% per 30 days, a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day average while its slope stays positive over 12 months.
CounterMomentum is only 4.9 with weak volume, and a break lower could turn the pullback into a confirmed downtrend.
Insiders sold $1,049,708 (0.026% of market cap) over 90 days with no buys, a small but bearish signal alongside an officer departure/appointment filing.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling should stay below 0.05% of market cap with no further officer departures.
CounterThe amount is immaterial relative to market cap, so the signal likely reflects routine diversification rather than concern.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.1 |
| ROA | 5.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.8 |
| Op margin | 7.1 |
| Net margin | 4.8 |
| Current ratio | 6.4 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
| erm sentiment | 4.5 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 3.9 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,049,708 (0.026% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 7.3 |
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.5 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| put call | 6.9 |
| implied vol | 4.3 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 8.4 |
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.3 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:64d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.29
Upside
+2.2%
Downside
7.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 51, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.1B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 8.3; weakest: Insider at 3.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.3, Momentum at 7.1, and Value at 6.9; the weakest are Insider at 3.4, Technical at 4.0, and Quality at 5.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.29 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation Vs Growth
Trip ifPEG ratio exceeds 1.5 from current 0.40.
- P3Thin Upside To Target
Trip ifDownside to the stop exceeds 10% while upside to the analyst target stays below 5%.
- P4Quality Franchise Pullback In Uptrend
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 of 9 from current 8.
- P5Modest Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds 0.1% of market cap in a 90-day window.