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AYAAya Gold & Silver Inc.Sell5.7·$19.75-0.95%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Aya Gold & Silver is a high-quality, wide-moat compounder trading at an attractive multiple, but the engine's materials-cycle-peak gate flags that its cheap forward P/E may be inflated by a commodity-price surge, and the upside already looks exhausted at current levels.

Thesis pillars

  • Cheap Multiple Cycle Peak RiskStable
  • Elevated Risk FactorsDeteriorating
  • High Quality Moat CompounderStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Silver

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.75: Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00.

Aya Gold & Silver Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of precious metals projects in Morocco. The company primarily explores for gold and silver deposits. Its flagship project holds 100% interests in the Zgounder property... Read more

$19.75+4.1% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#3 of 6 Silver
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield1.35%
Stop $18.32Target $20.51(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.75: Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on materials cycle peak fwd=8.6x,ratio=0.26x. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-25

Recent Developments — Aya Gold & Silver Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-07-25T11:56:59Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.26× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.
Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.8
P/E (Fwd)8.6
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA17.9
Profit Mgn30.5%
ROE24.1%
Rev Growth246.6%
Beta1.69
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV92%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Volatile — 6.5% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Days To Cover
0.0
Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Beta
4.4
Debt Equity
9.1
Elevated put/call: 2.00High IV: 92%
GatesMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK fwd=8.6x,ratio=0.26xA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $17.80Resistance $20.93

Price Targets

$18
$21
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0)
! MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=8.6x,ratio=0.26x

Earnings

We could not retrieve earnings history for AYA.
The company may be recently listed, pre-revenue, or its beat/miss record wasn't available from our source this run. Earnings signals feed the Growth and Catalyst score dimensions — absence here doesn't affect other dimensions.

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AYA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.75: Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.00. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $18.32. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AYA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $20.51 (+4.1% upside). Prior stop was $18.32. Stop-loss: $18.32.

What are the risks of investing in AYA?

Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 8.6× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.26× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0).

Is AYA overvalued or undervalued?

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.8 (forward 8.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AYA?

14 analysts cover AYA with a consensus score of 4.0/5.

What does Aya Gold & Silver Inc. do?Aya Gold & Silver Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of...

Aya Gold & Silver Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of precious metals projects in Morocco. The company primarily explores for gold and silver deposits. Its flagship project holds 100% interests in the Zgounder property located east of Agadir in the Proterozoic Siroua Massif of the Anti-Atlas Range, Morocco covering an area of approximately 378 square kilometers. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Mount Royal, Canada.

Related stocks: SVM (Silvercorp Metals Inc.) · AG (First Majestic Silver Corp.) · EXK (Endeavour Silver Corporation) · NEWP (New Pacific Metals Corp.) · HSLV (Highlander Silver Corp.)
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Benzinga17d ago