Value
7.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 3.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.01
- ▸Attractively valued
AYA · Why this verdict
Why Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Aya Gold & Silver is a high-quality, wide-moat compounder trading at an attractive multiple, but the engine's materials-cycle-peak gate flags that its cheap forward P/E may be inflated by a commodity-price surge, and the upside already looks exhausted at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock screens attractively valued on a forward P/E of 8.5x and a PEG ratio of 0.02, but the engine's materials-cycle-peak gate failed because that low multiple combined with a depressed forward-to-trailing ratio of 0.26x suggests the forward estimate may be built on a commodity-price surge that could mean-revert. Engine gate (failed) | The forward P/E and forward-to-trailing ratio normalize without a sharp earnings reset as commodity prices settle. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterThe bull case still calls the stock attractively valued and high-quality, and the wide economic moat could support earnings even if silver prices pull back from current levels. | ||
The bear case flags elevated risk factors alongside the commodity-cycle-peak concern, consistent with a below-average risk score of 3.7. Bear case | The risk score improves from its current 3.7 level over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMomentum and quality both currently score well (6.2 and 8.4 respectively), which could offset elevated risk if the commodity backdrop stays supportive. | ||
Aya Gold & Silver is described as a high-quality, wide-moat compounder, with strong margins near 30% and a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9. Quality breakdown | Margins hold near 30% and the Piotroski F-Score stays elevated over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings quality is separately flagged as a red flag, with free cash flow at just 44% of net income, suggesting reported earnings may not be fully backed by cash generation. | ||
Momentum cleared the engine's 5.5 threshold at 6.2, with on-balance volume in accumulation. Momentum breakdown | Momentum stays above 5.5 and volume accumulation continues over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe risk/reward setup shows the upside as exhausted, with an asymmetry ratio of zero, meaning momentum strength hasn't translated into an attractive entry point. | ||
The engine flags the upside as exhausted (asymmetry ratio of zero) even as options pricing shows elevated implied volatility of 86%, with the stock trading below its $25 max-pain level. Gates warning | A pullback or new catalyst reopens upside room versus the $21.55 take-profit target. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is still rated attractively valued and high-quality, which could support a continued move higher even without a technical reset. | ||
The stock screens attractively valued on a forward P/E of 8.5x and a PEG ratio of 0.02, but the engine's materials-cycle-peak gate failed because that low multiple combined with a depressed forward-to-trailing ratio of 0.26x suggests the forward estimate may be built on a commodity-price surge that could mean-revert.
Tripped→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The forward P/E and forward-to-trailing ratio normalize without a sharp earnings reset as commodity prices settle.
CounterThe bull case still calls the stock attractively valued and high-quality, and the wide economic moat could support earnings even if silver prices pull back from current levels.
The bear case flags elevated risk factors alongside the commodity-cycle-peak concern, consistent with a below-average risk score of 3.7.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- The risk score improves from its current 3.7 level over the next 12 months.
CounterMomentum and quality both currently score well (6.2 and 8.4 respectively), which could offset elevated risk if the commodity backdrop stays supportive.
Aya Gold & Silver is described as a high-quality, wide-moat compounder, with strong margins near 30% and a Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins hold near 30% and the Piotroski F-Score stays elevated over the next 12 months.
CounterEarnings quality is separately flagged as a red flag, with free cash flow at just 44% of net income, suggesting reported earnings may not be fully backed by cash generation.
Momentum cleared the engine's 5.5 threshold at 6.2, with on-balance volume in accumulation.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum stays above 5.5 and volume accumulation continues over the next 12 months.
CounterThe risk/reward setup shows the upside as exhausted, with an asymmetry ratio of zero, meaning momentum strength hasn't translated into an attractive entry point.
The engine flags the upside as exhausted (asymmetry ratio of zero) even as options pricing shows elevated implied volatility of 86%, with the stock trading below its $25 max-pain level.
→StableGates warning
- Expectation
- A pullback or new catalyst reopens upside room versus the $21.55 take-profit target.
CounterThe stock is still rated attractively valued and high-quality, which could support a continued move higher even without a technical reset.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 7.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.7 |
| FCF quality | 3.5 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong margins: 30%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 44% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 2.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 1.6 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.0 |
| quality rank | 7.0 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.4 |
| support resistance | 5.4 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.4 |
| debt equity | 9.1 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=8.2x,ratio=0.26x
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
13.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.4) with weak momentum (2.5)
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.69>1.3, MCap $2.7B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 8.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.5<4.5, MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=8.2x,ratio=0.26x) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 8.4, Value at 7.2, and Technical at 6.2; the weakest are Momentum at 2.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.4, and Peer rank at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Moat Compounder
Trip ifThe Piotroski F-Score falls below 6 out of 9 from the current 9.
- P2Cheap Multiple Cycle Peak RiskTripped
Trip ifThe forward-to-trailing P/E ratio rises above 0.55x from the current 0.26x, clearing the engine's threshold.
- P3Favorable Momentum Accumulation
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.5 from the current 6.2.
- P4Upside Exhausted Setup
Trip ifThe upside estimate rises above 5% from the current 0.0% exhausted level.
- P5Elevated Risk Factors
Trip ifThe risk score rises above 5.0 from the current 3.7.